2015 Non-essential, Indeterminate Guide to Surviving NCAA Bracket Pools

Quite possibly, more time is wasted and more work hours spent in an unproductive manner on filling out brackets for the NCAA tournament every year than by any other outside influence.

No event captures the imagination and gaming instincts of the American public (an easy group to engage) like the annual rite of March Madness, but, in the end, almost everybody goes home a loser, while some overfed, testosterone-overdosed moron in the office or workspace lauds his or her game-picking prowess over the unfortunate few who suffer the fool.

Remember, Kentucky wins.

Not that there may or may not be a science to correctly picking four (the First Four), 32, then 16, then 8, 4, 2 and finally one game correctly. Some people actually make a living at it, like ESPN's Joe Lunardi, often referred to as the bracket guru or tournament maestro, though it would be interesting to tally up how many of Joe's predictions actually pan out. At the very least, Joe Lunardi has emerged far enough into the American psyche that he now has his very own drinking game, played during ESPN's Championship Week.

It's an easy game. Watch games on ESPN. Any time Joe Lunardi is mentioned by name (often), drink. Guaranteed to please.

Beyond the obvious need to engage in picking winners, without further ado, College Basketball Daily presents its first - and maybe last - guide to picking your brackets without losing your mind, a lot of money or your personal dignity.

The 2015 edition of the NCAA tournament is pretty easy to break down. Kentucky will win it all. Simple enough, right? Just take Kentucky all the way through and you're guaranteed to end up in the winner's circle of your office pool or Calcutta... along with about a zillion other players. So, our advice is neither prescient nor the stuff of genius, though it is an indefatigable prescription for being right on six games, all of which will be won by the Wildcats.

After those six nearly-guaranteed winners, there are only 61 games remaining to pick. Nothing to it. We'll give you some tips and pointers along the way which will make some sense and maybe produce a plurality of winners.

Tip #1: Take conference champions over at-large teams. Simply put, teams who captured automatic bids by winning their conference tournaments (except for Harvard in the Ivy League, where they have no post-season tournament, though the Crimson did win a one-game playoff over Yale) are battle tested in single-elimination competition. That said, the selection committee was a little hard to read when they made Iowa State and Notre Dame - winners of the Big 12 and ACC tournaments, respectively - #3 seeds, while making Duke, which didn't even win the ACC regular season (Virginia did) and was eliminated in the semi-final by Notre Dame, a #1 seed. The other three #1 seeds - Kentucky, Villanova and Wisconsin - all won their conference tourneys, so what gives? Yet another reason to hate Duke.

Tip #2: Low-number seeds over high-number seeds, 1 through 4. The parlance used in terms of seeds can become confusing. Somebody might say Louisville is seeded higher than Iowa, for instance, but what that actually means is that Louisville is a #4, while Iowa is a #7. Confusing? No. Reverse logic. Simply put, take the #1, 2, 3, and 4 seeds in each region over their opponents in the opening round, unless advised otherwise. We'll get to that in the region-by-region breakdown.

Tip #3: Upsets are common in 7-10 and 5-12 match-ups. #11 seeds don't often beat #6's, and 8's vs. 9's are toss-ups, though sometimes mismatches.

Tip #4: After the opening round games on Thursday and Friday of the first week, it's wide open. - Anybody can win once they've gotten through the first game, but, odds are the lower-number (higher) seeds will survive. Some teams will surely surprise, but those are often teams which won their conference tournaments or teams from big conferences that lost in the final.

Tip #5: Don't listen to experts. Whether it's some guy on a talk-radio show, ESPN or the reigning champion of your office pool, who has done nithing but drink beer and watch basketball for the past two months, they will almost always give bad advice. All. The. Time. A good example was whether or not UCLA would be in this year's tournament. All the experts said, "no way." we said, "absolutely," our reasoning being that we figured the PAC-12 would send four teams to the tourney. We're not experts, and, lo and behold, we were right.

Tip #6: If you don't do well, don't worry about it. A lot of what goes into picking winners in the NCAA tournament has to do with dumb luck, voodoo, i-Ching, tarot cards, tea leaves, astrology and alchemy. Most of it is bunk. You're a good person, and you might even be a smart person. Just because Kansas loses to Northern Iowa or some other malady of fate occurs, doesn't change who you are. Unless you're a complete loser whose entire existence revolves around being right or this particular tournament, of course, then losing might cause some disturbing personal reactions, like not bathing for a couple of weeks, or throwing your TV out a window (this has happened), or not showing up for work, which might actually be a silver lining to both your boss and your co-workers.

Tip #7: After the second weekend, it can get really boring, really fast. The first two weekends are exciting, with games on Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday and lots of teams involved. By Saturday and Sunday of the second weekend, however, it's down to the Elite Eight - and, while those games are usually some of the most exciting of the tournament, being regional finals, the winner going to the Final Four, after that, there are only three games left, and they're a week away, the semi-finals on Saturday and the National Championship, Monday night.

That week can get tiresome, especially if you've already been eliminated in your pool, and even moreso if a couple of guys are making everyone else crazy arguing over who's going to get that $136 final prize. Whether you're still alive or not, get some fresh air, do some yard work, take a bike ride. Ferchistsake! It's a basketball tournament. Get a life, or, get yours back.

Now that we have the tips out of the way, on to the breakdown.

Let's start with those pesky First Four games on Tuesday and Wednesday night.

Tuesday's games are:
6:40 PM (16) Hampton vs (16) Manhattan - Hampton is the only team in the tournament with a losing record (16-17), despite winning the Mid-Eastern tournament. Did you know that they beat Delaware St. to get the automatic bid? No? Nobody else does either and nobody cares. Manhattan beat Sienna to win the Metro-Atlantic. And they won by 10 points. And they're called the Jaspers, defined as an opaque reddish-brown variety of chalcedony. Cool. They are the pick.

9:10 PM (11) BYU vs (11) Ole Miss - BYU can really light up the scoreboard. Good enough. Both of these teams were at-large selections. Cougars maul Rebels. Excellent.

Wednesday:
6:40 PM (16) Robert Morris vs (16) North Florida - Both are tournament winners with automatic bids, North Florida from the Atlantic Sun, Robert Morris from the Northeast. North Florida's team name is the Ospreys. Good enough. You'll look like a genius.


9:10 PM (11) Dayton vs (11) Boise State - Dayton lost to VCU in the Atlantic 10 final. Take a flyer on the Flyers. But, shouldn't it be spelled fliers? Never mind. They'll probably lose in the next round.

OK, since everybody figures the Wildcats will be crowned national champions come April 6, the Midwest region where Kentucky is the #1 seed and the #1 overall seed in the tournament starts the region-by-region breakdown.

Midwest Region

You've already penciled in Kentucky, right? For the remainder, follow our tips, which means #12 Buffalo (MAC champs) over #5 West Virginia (at-large) is the main upset. After Kentucky, the 2, 3, and 4 seeds should all win. In the 6-11 match-up, Butler (6) should handle Texas (11). Wichita State and Indiana, that's a toss-up. Flip a coin. And, #9 Purdue should handle #8 Cincinnati.

After the opening round, keep to our tips and keep this in mind. Kansas lost in their conference tournament. They are not that good and could conceivably lose either of their first two games. Notre Dame won their's. If they meet, the Irish will move forward ad probably lose to Kentucky in the regional final.

West Region

OK, now it gets interesting, because the #1 seed, Wisconsin, may not get through to the Final Four. They might, but #2 Arizona, #3 Baylor and #4 North Carolina all look pretty darn good.

In the opening round, #7 VCU should oust #10 Ohio State. The winner of the BYU-Ole Miss game gets #6 Xavier on Thursday night and could easily upset. Oregon (8) over Oklahoma State (9) and #12 Woffard will give #5 Arkansas a heck of a time. That's a key game, but Arkansas is likely to pull through.

After the opening round, this region looks pretty chalky and could easily end up with the top four seeds. In that case, Wisconsin will likely get past North Carolina and Arizona should beat Baylor. Arizona is a very good choice to win this region. They won the PAC-12 tournament and the PAC-12 isn't getting much respect.

East Region

Winners of the Big East, Villanova, the #1 seed, looks vulnerable, but the competition in this region is weak. This could be the one that blows up. The 8-9 game, NC State vs. LSU is a pure toss-up, as is the 5-12 game, Northern Iowa and Wyoming. Both won their conference tournaments, but Wyoming might be the ultimate sleeper pick. Might not, but, if they win, you'll look awesome... for about a day.

Providence, the 6 seed, could be awesome, but they may fall to the winner of the play-in game, Boise St. or Dayton. Michigan State got in as a 7, and they look good for at least a win, but they'll probably lose to Virginia in the next round. Also, #4 Louisville has trouble scoring at times and UC-Irvine won the Big West. Could be the upset of the weekend. Any combination could end up in the regionals, but stick with #2 Virginia. One could take Villanova, Virginia, UC-Irvine, Oklahoma, Providence or Michigan State to make the Final Four. This is wide open.

South Region

Duke got the #1 seed in this region and should make it through the first weekend without a problem. After that, Utah could beat them, or, either (2) Gonzaga or (3) Iowa State in the regional final, should knock them out. But, they're good, and they're Duke, but, you don't really want to pick Duke, do you?

As usual, the 8-9 (San Diego St. vs. St. John's) game is unpickable. #5 Utah is a good sleeper in this region, as is #10 Davidson. #11 UCLA should slip by SMU, but they'll lose to a very strong Iowa State team, winners of the Big 12 tournament.

Georgetown is the weakest #4 team in the tournament. #13 Eastern Washington (Big Sky champions) could get them. If not, Utah surely will in the following round.

#2 Gonzaga is one of just three teams that could beat Kentucky, though that's a questionable call. The other two are Notre Dame and Arizona.

Final Four: Midwest plays West, East plays South. Whichever team comes out of the South region will beat the East region representative, which means, either Gonzaga, Iowa State, or, heaven forbid, Duke, could meet the Wildcats in the Final. Arizona could upset Kentucky, but not likely.

Kentucky wins. Didn't we say that already?

North Carolina Captures ACC Crown

#2 North Carolina 79, #7 Duke 71

North Carolina finished what had been their goal all season - to finish in first place in the ACC - by beating back their fiercest rival, Duke, 79-71, winning the ACC regular season title with a final record of 13-3. Duke will finish second, at 11-5.

Carolina put five players in double figures, led by Tyler Hansbrough, who had 17 points and 11 rebounds. Wayne Ellison scored 16, and Ty Lawson had another huge effort, scoring 13 points, with 11 rebounds and 8 assists.

The Tar Heels finish up the regular season with one of the best records in the country: 27-3, those few losses suffered against ACC opponents, Boston College, Wake Forest and Maryland. Next up is the ACC tournament and an automatic bid to the NCAAs for the winner, though the money is on North Carolina to at least reach the finals of their conference tourney and receive a #1 seeding in the field of 65.

Elsewhere around the conferences, #8 Michigan State beat #16 Purdue, 62-51, closing out their regular season with five straight wins and a #1 seed in this week's Big Ten tourney.

Northern Iowa had to go into overtime to finally subdue Illinois St., 60-57, to capture the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament championship and receive the automatic bid to the NCAA field.

In the SEC, Tennessee lost to Alabama on a last-second half-court shot, 70-67, though the game had no bearing on the standings.

Back in the ACC, Florida State solidified their credentials with a 63-53 win over Virginia Tech. The Seminoles improved to 10-6 in the conference and 23-8 overall, and are sure to get an invitation to the big dance. Virginia Tech, however, ended at 7-9 and 18-13, probably not good enough to earn a bid.

Memphis, Duke, Butler, Kansas All Winners

Butler 62 Wisconsin-Green Bay 57 - The Butler Bulldogs are ranked in the top 10 nationally, and a major factor is the stiff competition in the Horizon League. Seven of ten Horizon League teams have winning records.

Trailing 29-26 early in the second half, the Bulldogs outscored their Green Bay hosts 23-10, to seemingly take command of the game with 8 minutes remaining.

The Phoenix responded with a 8-0 run of their own to trail 49-47 with 4:20 left, but Pete Campbell knocked down consecutive three-pointers to increase the lead back to eight.

Campbell joined A. J. Graves, Mike Green and Matt Howard in double figures as the Bulldogs improved to 10 -2 in the conference and 21-2 overall. The loss by the Phoenix dropped them to 7-6 and 13-10 overall, dimming hopes for a trip to the NCAA tournament.

Butler shot only 39% from the field and hit just 8 of 32 threes, but they made them when they mattered most.

Kansas 100 Baylor 90 - The Jayhawks took their first step toward opening up some daylight in the contentious Big 12, putting down the Baylor Bears with their highest point output since a season-opening 107-78 rout of Louisiana-Monroe.

Kansas has scored 90 or more in back-to-back wins, topping Missouri, 90-71, on Monday. The win kept the Jayhawks 1/2-game in front of Kansas State, which topped Oklahoma State, 82-61, earlier in the day. Kansas is 8-1, K-State, 7-1. The two meet at Kansas March 1, in a game that will likely decide the Big 12 champion.

The Wildcats stunned the Jayhawks on January 30, handing them their first loss f the season, 84-75.

Surprising Baylor dropped to 5-3 in the Big 12, but are a solid 17-5 overall and should get an invite to the big dance in March.

Darrell Arthur led the Jayhawks with 23 points. Russell Robinson came off the bench to score 22, hitting 14-of-15 from the foul line. Kansas shot 51% from the field but was 0-9 from behind the three-point line. It was the first time since 1999 that a Jayhawk team failed to register a three-point shot.

This Monday, Kansas plays at #12 Texas, third in the conference at 6-2. It is the only meeting beg 12 rivals this season. The Longhorns beat Iowa State on Saturday, 71-65.

Around the Nation

Elsewhere in the Top 25, top-ranked Memphis made quick work of UCF, 85-64, as the Tigers improved to 23-0 and remain the only unbeaten team in Division 1. #2 Duke dispatched Boston College, 90-80 and #7 Tennessee scraped by LSU, 47-45. Surging UConn won their 7th straight with an 80-68 win over Georgia Tech.

Notre Dame won their 34th straight home game, squeaking by Marquette, 86-83. The Irish canned 10 straight free throws down the stretch to seal the win, holding a huge edge at the charity stripe. Notre Dame was 24-31, while Marquette was just 5 of 8.

Late games of note had Purdue at Wisconsin and Georgetown at Louisville.

No Fluke: Duke Routs Wolverines

Duke 95 Michigan 67

I may have to take back some of what I said about Duke after watching them roll over Michigan on Saturday. While they are not big up front, they do have some depth and their wingmen, notably Gerald Henderson, Taylor King and DeMarcus Nelson, are extremely versatile and play within themselves. Most impressive, however, was freshman Nolan Smith, who scored a career-high 17 points on 7-9 shooting.

Duke opened the game shooting 0-7, but Taylor King hit a sweeping hook shot, then Paulus hit a long trey, followed by a three from King on the wing. Suddenly, the Blue Devils were up 8-5. Duke could not maintain much of a lead early in the first half, as the 3-5 Wolverines continued to push the ball and force Duke into mostly outside shooting. But the Wolverines shot only 26% for the half and Duke nearly ran them out of the gym, going on a 23-9 run to expand an 18-14 lead to 41-23 at intermission. Duke shot only 37% and hit on only 6 of 17 three-point tries in the opening stanza.

The second half saw a lot of substitution by both coaches, and Duke's lead was never challenged. Michigan seemed content to just hang in and work on their offense, while the Blue Devils hammered the ball inside.

Michigan ended up shooting 38% for the game, to the Blue Devils' 49%. Duke hit 11 of 26 3-pointers, better than their average of 22 threes per game and a 41% clip.

One to watch for Michigan is freshman Manny Harris, who was held to just 8 points, well below his 16.6 per game average. He's a slick guard with good ball-handling skills. Despite the loss, the Wolverines will win more than a fair share of their Big 10 games once they develop a little more offensively.

In other early Saturday action, the Fighting Illini took the visiting Arizona Wildcats into overtime, dropping a 78-72 decision to the 6-2 Wildcats. Arizona misses head coach Lute Olson, who is on an extended leave through the end of the season as he has filed for divorce, seeking to end his second marriage. Freshman sensation Jerryd Bayless dropped in 20 for Arizona, right on his average for the season.

Louisville, playing without Juan Palacios, had their hands full with the Dayton Flyers, dropping a 70-65 decision, as the Cardinals had absolutely no answer for senior guard Brian Roberts, who poured in 28 points on 10-17 shooting. The win makes Dayton 7-1, while Louisville falls to 5-2. Both Louisville losses have come at home, the first a 78-76 defeat to BYU. The Cardinals, currently #14, may fall out of the Top 25 next week, while Dayton probably won't get any consideration, but looks like a contender in the rugged Atlantic 10, along with Xavier, Duquesne and Rhode Island.