Midwest Region
Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, IN)
(1) Louisville (30-5) (-9, 139 1/2) (12) Arizona (21-13) 7:07 pm EDT- On paper, this looks like the easiest game to pick, with the #1 seed in the tournament facing a rank #12 in the Wildcats of Arizona. However, Arizona, a bubble team which wasn't expected to make the tourney by some expert analysts, has turned in a pleasantly surprising performance over its first two games, winning with relative ease over Utah (84-71) in the first round and then knocking off a Cinderella squad from Cleveland State, 71-57. In fact, the Wildcats combined margin of victory (27 points), is exactly the same as Louisville's.
Making the comparison even more interesting is the seeds beaten. Louisville only had to top a 16 and a 9 (Siena), while Arizona battled a 5 (Utah) and a 13. Add the seeds up, compare, and Arizona becomes even more likable.
Arizona has been led by the trio of Nic Wise, Chase Budinger and Jordan Hill, who provide the bulk of the scoring. Wise led the Wildcats in scoring in both games, and can create his own space and scoring opportunities, while Budinger is evolving into an excellent mid-to-long range player and Hill takes up space in the post, where he will have to contend with Louisville's enormously-talented Earl Clark. Terrence Williams and Samardo Samuels will also fill the lane with points and boards.
Louisville was tested by tiny Siena, and one has to question just how far the Cardinals are capable of going. They may be playing possum, but the Saints also had no quit in them, thus the close, 79-72 final score. Arizona is capable of staying in this one until the end and maybe scoring the biggest upset of the tournament.
PREDICTION: Arizona 77 Louisville 73
(2) Michigan St. (28-6) (-1 1/2, 139) (3) Kansas (27-7) 9:37 pm EDT - Kansas has a speedy, experienced point guard in Sherron Collins, but he will have to match up with the Spartan's Kalin Lucas, possessive of blow-by quickness and expert ball-handling. Collins, for the first time in the tournament, may not have the upper hand at the point. In the post, another matchup, of the Jayhawks Cole Aldrich and Michigan State's Goran Suton figures to be a wash, so it comes down to the rest of the cast, and that's where Kansas may actually have an edge with freshmen Marcus and Markieff Morris and Tyshawn Taylor, plus sophomore Tyrel Reed, who can provide instant offense with bombs from anywhere on the court.
Michigan State's game is predicated on defense first, but the Spartans will have their hands full with Kansas, which can go 8 or 9 deep. Michigan State isn't very deep at all, with a big drop-off after their 6th man in terms of playing time. The Spartans will be gassed by Kansas' relentless running and will once more prove to the world that the Big Ten isn't that great a conference.
PREDICTION: Kansas 73 Michigan St. 65
South Region
FedExForum (Memphis, TN)
(2) Oklahoma (29-5) (-1, 153) (3) Syracuse (28-9) 7:27 pm EDT - An intriguing matchup, especially considering that Syracuse will try to stop Blake Griffin with their patented 2-3 zone. The Orangemen certainly have the bodies to keep him in check, but the question is for how long? Syracuse point guard Jonny Flynn is a future NBA player, but he's still only a sophomore, so the experience will not be easy for him. Another question the "Cuse has to answer is whether Eric Devendorf and Andy Rautins can continue to produce from beyond the arc. If they cannot, this one will be all Oklahoma.
While Syracuse has an impressive resume against out-of-conference teams with wins over Florida, Kansas and Memphis, those were all in November and December. Meanwhile, the Sooners lost two games in which Griffin was unavailable, and may have come into the tournament with a better record (and seeding) had it not been for his late-season injury. Oklahoma is as good as any team remaining, while the Orangemen (my alma mater, BTW) seem to be still developing and maybe will win it all in a year or two.
PREDICTION: Oklahoma 82 Syracuse 70
(1) North Carolina (30-4) (-8 1/2, 162 1/2) (4) Gonzaga (28-5) - 9:57 pm EDT - The Zags are a solid team, but the Tar Heels are poised to go to the Final Four. A win by Gonzaga would be a shock to the entire college hoops world, as many have the Tar Heels penned in their bracket projections to win it all. Gonzaga performed grandly to advance this far, but this is where it ends.
PREDICTION: North Carolina 91 Gonzaga 75
Showing posts with label Regional Breakdown. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Regional Breakdown. Show all posts
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
East, West Regional Breakdowns: Thursday Games
West Region
University of Phoenix Stadium (Glendale, AZ)
(1) Connecticut (29-4) (-7, 134 1/2) (5) Purdue (27-9) - 7:07 pm EDT: Connecticut should handle the Boilermakers with relative ease. As tournament teams go, the Huskies have the widest margin of victory of any remaining team, an average of 41 points per game. Purdue has one of the smallest - 3 1/2 per game - though Purdue played a 12 (Northern Iowa) and a 4 (Washington), the latter of which they survived by just two points. UConn had the luxury of playing a 16 (Chattanooga) and a 9 (Texas A&M), but the perceived quality of the opponent shouldn't matter at this point. Making the Sweet 16 is a goal in itself for some teams and the feeling is that Purdue has reached as far as they can.
Connecticut comes from the powerhouse Big East conference, which has been regarded as the best in the nation top to bottom, and by getting five of seven entrants to this point the critics (if there were any) have been silenced. The Huskies stand a very good chance of making the Final Four, as do all the #1s, which are all represented this round.
The matchup problems for Purdue will be all over the court, beginning with Hasheem Thabeet in the middle. Only DeJuan Blair of Pitt has been able to slow Thabeet down at all, and if he stays out of foul trouble, the big man will make life in the lane a scary experience, especially for his counterpart, 6'10" JaJuan Johnson, who happens to be Purdue's leading scorer in the tournament. With Thabeet on him, getting 20 points seems like a mightly uphill task. On the other side, UConn doesn't rely on Thebeet for scoring. For that they have Jeff Adrian, A. J. Price and Stanley Robinson. Those three should get 60-70% of the scoring for their team, enough to put Purdue at a distinct disadvantage.
PREDICTION: Connecticut 84 Purdue 70
(2) Memphis (33-3) (-4 1/2, 141) (3) Missouri (30-6) - 9:37 pm EDT: This is a crucial game for both teams, but particularly for the Memphis Tigers, who have been accused of playing too weak a schedule, in too weak a conference. Memphis is the only team from Conference-USA to receive an invitation to the tournament - a ridiculous notion. The Tigers sport the nation's longest winning streak - 27 games - and have the best overall record in the nation, but the three losses were against arguably the best teams they faced all season - Georgetown, Xavier and Syracuse - two of which are still in the remaining field.
However, the most recent loss was last year - December 20 - and winning is like a contagion, the Memphis players step on the court thinking they can win, and they usually do. The Tigers' first tournament game, an 81-70 win over Cal State Northridge, can be excused for first round jitters. By the end of the game, Memphis was doing what they do best, shutting the other team down defensively and getting out on the break. In their easy win over Maryland, 89-70, the Tigers were more at ease with the crowds and expectations and they looked solid. The Memphis game revolves around point guard Antonio Anderson and power forward-center Robert Dozier, with a healthy dose of Tyreke Evans. This Tiger trokia is the key to their success.
Missouri poses an intriguing problem, as they like to pressure and run, but they run into problems if one of their two big guns - Leo Lyons and DeMarre Carroll - either encounters foul problems or a lock-down defender, and that's what both of them may face in Evans and Anderson. After their two big stars, Missouri just doesn't have enough depth to stay with Memphis for an entire 40 minutes. Unless Memphis turns the ball over more than expected, all indications are that Memphis moves on.
PREDICTION: Memphis 78 Missouri 65
East Region
TD Banknorth Garden (Boston, MA)
(1) Pittsburgh (30-4) (-7, 138 1/2) (4) Xavier (27-7) - 7:27 pm EDT: Ideally suited for tournament play, Xavier doesn't rely on any one or two players in order to win games. Rather, they are the consummate team and because of that have a good chance of reaching the Final Four and an outside shot at winning it all. While the Panthers have only lost to teams from the Big East, their wins outside the conference (Texas Tech, Florida State, Duquesne) aren't that impressive. The Musketeers have wins over Memphis and Missouri, two teams still in the hunt, suggesting that they will give Pitt all they can handle. Xavier can go nine deep, and all of them will get on the glass, pass well and play with poise.
Xavier won't be giving up much size, especially at the point, where Pitt's 5'10" Levance Fields may have problems getting the ball in the post to Blair. That was an issue for Pitt against Oklahoma State, but the immensely talented Sam Young picked up the slack, scoring 32 in one of this tournament's finest performances.
Xavier seems ready for anyone, and the extra practice time gives them an advantage. Pitt has won their two games by an average of just 9 points, the lowest of any #1, while the Musketeers won their games by 19 and 11. Xavier's speed, defense and coolness in any situation may prove to be the factors that get them to the next round.
PREDICTION: Xavier 71 Pitt 69
(2) Duke (30-6) (-2 1/2, 148) (3) Villanova (28-7) - 9:57 pm EDT: By any standard, this matchup is nearly impossible to predict a winner. Both teams play a fast, free-flowing style of offense, have players capable of hitting threes or scoring in the lane, neither has a huge inside presence and both are well coached and go seven to eight deep. Of all the players on the court, two stand out as potential game-changers. Jon Scheyer for Duke can get hot and hit bombs from just about anywhere, while Villanova's Dante Cunningham can be somewhat unstoppable in the post, but that only makes matters even more difficult to predict.
This is such an even call, the only prudent thing to do is take the points and hope the Wildcats have the ball for the final possession. It's easy to see this one going overtime and either team could go to the Final Four and beyond.
PREDICTION: Villanova 84 Duke 81
Tomorrow: Midwest, South Regional Breakdowns, Friday Games
University of Phoenix Stadium (Glendale, AZ)
(1) Connecticut (29-4) (-7, 134 1/2) (5) Purdue (27-9) - 7:07 pm EDT: Connecticut should handle the Boilermakers with relative ease. As tournament teams go, the Huskies have the widest margin of victory of any remaining team, an average of 41 points per game. Purdue has one of the smallest - 3 1/2 per game - though Purdue played a 12 (Northern Iowa) and a 4 (Washington), the latter of which they survived by just two points. UConn had the luxury of playing a 16 (Chattanooga) and a 9 (Texas A&M), but the perceived quality of the opponent shouldn't matter at this point. Making the Sweet 16 is a goal in itself for some teams and the feeling is that Purdue has reached as far as they can.
Connecticut comes from the powerhouse Big East conference, which has been regarded as the best in the nation top to bottom, and by getting five of seven entrants to this point the critics (if there were any) have been silenced. The Huskies stand a very good chance of making the Final Four, as do all the #1s, which are all represented this round.
The matchup problems for Purdue will be all over the court, beginning with Hasheem Thabeet in the middle. Only DeJuan Blair of Pitt has been able to slow Thabeet down at all, and if he stays out of foul trouble, the big man will make life in the lane a scary experience, especially for his counterpart, 6'10" JaJuan Johnson, who happens to be Purdue's leading scorer in the tournament. With Thabeet on him, getting 20 points seems like a mightly uphill task. On the other side, UConn doesn't rely on Thebeet for scoring. For that they have Jeff Adrian, A. J. Price and Stanley Robinson. Those three should get 60-70% of the scoring for their team, enough to put Purdue at a distinct disadvantage.
PREDICTION: Connecticut 84 Purdue 70
(2) Memphis (33-3) (-4 1/2, 141) (3) Missouri (30-6) - 9:37 pm EDT: This is a crucial game for both teams, but particularly for the Memphis Tigers, who have been accused of playing too weak a schedule, in too weak a conference. Memphis is the only team from Conference-USA to receive an invitation to the tournament - a ridiculous notion. The Tigers sport the nation's longest winning streak - 27 games - and have the best overall record in the nation, but the three losses were against arguably the best teams they faced all season - Georgetown, Xavier and Syracuse - two of which are still in the remaining field.
However, the most recent loss was last year - December 20 - and winning is like a contagion, the Memphis players step on the court thinking they can win, and they usually do. The Tigers' first tournament game, an 81-70 win over Cal State Northridge, can be excused for first round jitters. By the end of the game, Memphis was doing what they do best, shutting the other team down defensively and getting out on the break. In their easy win over Maryland, 89-70, the Tigers were more at ease with the crowds and expectations and they looked solid. The Memphis game revolves around point guard Antonio Anderson and power forward-center Robert Dozier, with a healthy dose of Tyreke Evans. This Tiger trokia is the key to their success.
Missouri poses an intriguing problem, as they like to pressure and run, but they run into problems if one of their two big guns - Leo Lyons and DeMarre Carroll - either encounters foul problems or a lock-down defender, and that's what both of them may face in Evans and Anderson. After their two big stars, Missouri just doesn't have enough depth to stay with Memphis for an entire 40 minutes. Unless Memphis turns the ball over more than expected, all indications are that Memphis moves on.
PREDICTION: Memphis 78 Missouri 65
East Region
TD Banknorth Garden (Boston, MA)
(1) Pittsburgh (30-4) (-7, 138 1/2) (4) Xavier (27-7) - 7:27 pm EDT: Ideally suited for tournament play, Xavier doesn't rely on any one or two players in order to win games. Rather, they are the consummate team and because of that have a good chance of reaching the Final Four and an outside shot at winning it all. While the Panthers have only lost to teams from the Big East, their wins outside the conference (Texas Tech, Florida State, Duquesne) aren't that impressive. The Musketeers have wins over Memphis and Missouri, two teams still in the hunt, suggesting that they will give Pitt all they can handle. Xavier can go nine deep, and all of them will get on the glass, pass well and play with poise.
Xavier won't be giving up much size, especially at the point, where Pitt's 5'10" Levance Fields may have problems getting the ball in the post to Blair. That was an issue for Pitt against Oklahoma State, but the immensely talented Sam Young picked up the slack, scoring 32 in one of this tournament's finest performances.
Xavier seems ready for anyone, and the extra practice time gives them an advantage. Pitt has won their two games by an average of just 9 points, the lowest of any #1, while the Musketeers won their games by 19 and 11. Xavier's speed, defense and coolness in any situation may prove to be the factors that get them to the next round.
PREDICTION: Xavier 71 Pitt 69
(2) Duke (30-6) (-2 1/2, 148) (3) Villanova (28-7) - 9:57 pm EDT: By any standard, this matchup is nearly impossible to predict a winner. Both teams play a fast, free-flowing style of offense, have players capable of hitting threes or scoring in the lane, neither has a huge inside presence and both are well coached and go seven to eight deep. Of all the players on the court, two stand out as potential game-changers. Jon Scheyer for Duke can get hot and hit bombs from just about anywhere, while Villanova's Dante Cunningham can be somewhat unstoppable in the post, but that only makes matters even more difficult to predict.
This is such an even call, the only prudent thing to do is take the points and hope the Wildcats have the ball for the final possession. It's easy to see this one going overtime and either team could go to the Final Four and beyond.
PREDICTION: Villanova 84 Duke 81
Tomorrow: Midwest, South Regional Breakdowns, Friday Games
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