College Hoops Player of the Day for Saturday, November 21, 2009
John Calipari is off to a 4-0 start as head coach of the Kentucky Wildcats, thanks in part to the easy early schedule, and also to some of the exceptional players who remained from last year's squad.
One such standout is junior forward Patrick Patterson, who was unstoppable in the lane against undersized Rider University. Patterson lit up the Broncs for 19 points and 18 rebounds, as the Wildcats cruised to a 92-63 victory. It was Patterson's 3rd double-double of the season. Last year, he averaged 17.9 points and 9.3 boards.
Rider has come back to earth after opening their season with a road win at Mississippi State. After beating Lehigh at home on Monday, they've lost consecutive road games, to Virginia and Kentucky this week, evening their record at 2-2. One has to give the small New Jersey school (student population roughly 6000) credit for such an ambitious early schedule. The MAAC school already has played two SEC teams and one from the ACC.
NOTABLE: Beware the Rams! VCU, a perennial powerhouse out of the Colonial Athletic Association, upset #17 Oklahoma, 82-69, Saturday. Three-point shooting proved to be the difference, as the Sooners hit just 5 of 26, while the Rams drained 9 of 26.
All 13 players scored for the #24 Fighting Illini as they took out Presbyterian, 94-48, for their third straight win without a loss.
Sunday, November 22, 2009
Saturday, November 21, 2009
Rautins, Johnson Lead Syracuse Past Tar Heels
College Hoops Player of the Day for Friday, November 20, 2009
Watch out for Jim Boehiem's Syracuse Orangemen this season. Ranked preseason as the 6th-best team in the Big East, the Orange took out two ranked opponents en route to capturing the championship in the Coaches Vs. Cancer Classic at madison Square Garden in New York.
After throttling Cal, 95-73, on Thursday, they routed North Carolina, 87-71, Friday night to improve their record to 4-0. (Big East teams were 41-0 before Providence and South Florida lost Friday night to Alabama and South Carolina, respectively.)
Syracuse was led by 6'7" junior forward Wesley Johnson, who sat out all of last season after transferring from Iowa State University. Johnson lit it up for a game-high 25 points, to go with his 8 boards. Johnson was 10-17 from the field, hitting 4-of-8 3-pointers.
The Orangemen had five players in double figures, but senior Andy Rautins was everywhere, scoring 11 points with 3 3-pointers, 7 rebounds, 7 assists and 7 steals.
Syracuse, trailing 39-37 at the half, exploded for a 25-2 run to open the second half and take complete control of the game. North Carolina drew to within 8 points, but never threatened as the Orangemen employed their 2-3 zone to produce 18 Tar Heel turnovers.
NOTABLE: Tennessee's Scotty Hopson tallied 25 points for the second straight game, hitting 10-of-15 shots, including 4-of-5 from beyond the arc, in a 105-66 win over East Carolina. The 3-0 Vols lead the nation in scoring at 104 points per game.
Watch out for Jim Boehiem's Syracuse Orangemen this season. Ranked preseason as the 6th-best team in the Big East, the Orange took out two ranked opponents en route to capturing the championship in the Coaches Vs. Cancer Classic at madison Square Garden in New York.
After throttling Cal, 95-73, on Thursday, they routed North Carolina, 87-71, Friday night to improve their record to 4-0. (Big East teams were 41-0 before Providence and South Florida lost Friday night to Alabama and South Carolina, respectively.)
Syracuse was led by 6'7" junior forward Wesley Johnson, who sat out all of last season after transferring from Iowa State University. Johnson lit it up for a game-high 25 points, to go with his 8 boards. Johnson was 10-17 from the field, hitting 4-of-8 3-pointers.
The Orangemen had five players in double figures, but senior Andy Rautins was everywhere, scoring 11 points with 3 3-pointers, 7 rebounds, 7 assists and 7 steals.
Syracuse, trailing 39-37 at the half, exploded for a 25-2 run to open the second half and take complete control of the game. North Carolina drew to within 8 points, but never threatened as the Orangemen employed their 2-3 zone to produce 18 Tar Heel turnovers.
NOTABLE: Tennessee's Scotty Hopson tallied 25 points for the second straight game, hitting 10-of-15 shots, including 4-of-5 from beyond the arc, in a 105-66 win over East Carolina. The 3-0 Vols lead the nation in scoring at 104 points per game.
Friday, November 20, 2009
Calipari Gets 27 Points and 18 Boards from Freshman Cousins
College Hoops Player of the Day for Thursday, November 19, 2009
Talk about lighting it up. Kentucky outscored Sam Houston State, 102-92, for their third straight win to open the 2009-10 campaign, but the margins of victory haven't been as wide as new head coach John Calipari might have liked.
After topping Miami (OH), 72-70, the Wildcats had to go longer and deeper with their starters in order to stave off the upset-minded Bearcats. In the end, the strategy worked, but not until senior Corey Allmond had thrown down 37 points for Sam Houston on 13-of-22 shooting, including an incredible 11-of-16 3-pointers. Allmond's monster night was eventually outdone by Kentucky freshman DeMarcus Cousins' 27-point, 18-rebound effort. The 6'11" Cousins didn't even attempt a 3-point shot, doing the majority of his damage within 5 feet of the hoop. His 18 rebounds included 8 offensive boards which resulted in a good number of put-backs. Both his points and rebound totals were career highs.
NOTABLE: The opening round of the third-annual Puerto Rico Tip-Off in San Juan, featured two quality games, one upset and once close call for the 3-0 Villanova Wildcats, who slipped past George Mason, 69-68, after trailing almost the entire game. The opener of the tourney did produce the minor upset, as the #18 Dayton Flyers dropped #21 Georgia Tech, 63-59. Dayton will play Villanova for the championship on Friday.
In the Coaches Vs. Cancer Classic at Madison Square Garden, Syracuse defeated an obviously-overrated #13 Cal squad by a 95-73 score, while the Tar Heels took down Ohio State, 77-73. The Orangemen will face North Carolina in the title match on Friday night.
Talk about lighting it up. Kentucky outscored Sam Houston State, 102-92, for their third straight win to open the 2009-10 campaign, but the margins of victory haven't been as wide as new head coach John Calipari might have liked.
After topping Miami (OH), 72-70, the Wildcats had to go longer and deeper with their starters in order to stave off the upset-minded Bearcats. In the end, the strategy worked, but not until senior Corey Allmond had thrown down 37 points for Sam Houston on 13-of-22 shooting, including an incredible 11-of-16 3-pointers. Allmond's monster night was eventually outdone by Kentucky freshman DeMarcus Cousins' 27-point, 18-rebound effort. The 6'11" Cousins didn't even attempt a 3-point shot, doing the majority of his damage within 5 feet of the hoop. His 18 rebounds included 8 offensive boards which resulted in a good number of put-backs. Both his points and rebound totals were career highs.
NOTABLE: The opening round of the third-annual Puerto Rico Tip-Off in San Juan, featured two quality games, one upset and once close call for the 3-0 Villanova Wildcats, who slipped past George Mason, 69-68, after trailing almost the entire game. The opener of the tourney did produce the minor upset, as the #18 Dayton Flyers dropped #21 Georgia Tech, 63-59. Dayton will play Villanova for the championship on Friday.
In the Coaches Vs. Cancer Classic at Madison Square Garden, Syracuse defeated an obviously-overrated #13 Cal squad by a 95-73 score, while the Tar Heels took down Ohio State, 77-73. The Orangemen will face North Carolina in the title match on Friday night.
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Butler Improves to 2-0 Off Hayward Effort
College Hoops Player of the Day for Wednesday, November 18, 2009
The Butler Bulldogs have a pretty good team. How far they go this season rests largely on the big shoulders of 6'8" sophomore Gordon Hayward, who recorded his first double-double with 14 points and 10 boards in Butler's 67-54 victory at Northwestern.
The win made the Bulldogs 2-0, with a bunch of big games just ahead. On Thanksgiving, the Bulldogs host #24 Minnesota, but then on December 8, 12 and 19, the schedule gets extremely tough, at (19) Georgetown, then home for (15) Ohio St. and then unranked Xavier.
It's that kind of scheduling that keeps little Butler consistently in the Top 25 and battle-tested for the Horizon League regular season. The Bulldogs have been in the NCAA tournament each of the last three seasons, having won or shared the regular league title in each of those years and the conference tournament after the conclusion of the 2007-08 season.
Hayward averaged 13.1 points per game last season. He's up to 15.5 so far this year.
The Butler Bulldogs have a pretty good team. How far they go this season rests largely on the big shoulders of 6'8" sophomore Gordon Hayward, who recorded his first double-double with 14 points and 10 boards in Butler's 67-54 victory at Northwestern.
The win made the Bulldogs 2-0, with a bunch of big games just ahead. On Thanksgiving, the Bulldogs host #24 Minnesota, but then on December 8, 12 and 19, the schedule gets extremely tough, at (19) Georgetown, then home for (15) Ohio St. and then unranked Xavier.
It's that kind of scheduling that keeps little Butler consistently in the Top 25 and battle-tested for the Horizon League regular season. The Bulldogs have been in the NCAA tournament each of the last three seasons, having won or shared the regular league title in each of those years and the conference tournament after the conclusion of the 2007-08 season.
Hayward averaged 13.1 points per game last season. He's up to 15.5 so far this year.
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Hopson's 25 Leads Tennessee to 2-0 Record
College Hoops Player of the Day for Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Tennessee 124, N.C. Asheville 49 - 13 different Volunteers scored, but sophomore guard Scotty Hopson was filling up the stat sheet quicker than anyone else, tallying 25 points on 8-of-11 shooting, including hitting 6 of 7 from 3-point range. Hopson added 4 rebounds, 5 assists and a pair of steals in the all-around effort. Best of all, he did his damage in just 23 minutes on the floor. Hopson averaged 9.2 ppg last season. This year he's up to 25.5 after two games, though the competition gets tougher after December.
Notable: The College Tip-Off Marathon was a smashing success for ESPN and college hoops, especially with the two premier games going down to the wire. Gonzaga pushed #2 Michigan St. to the limit, with the Spartans finally prevailing, 75-71. Right on the heels of that contest, #1 Kansas went toe-to-toe with Memphis for the full 40, finally dropping the Tigers, 57-55. Close calls for the top two teams (preseason rankings) suggests that this season will be much like many past: lots of upsets and a general carousel around the top 10.
Louisville's Reggie Delk: 20 points, 8-9 (4-5, 3s), 5 rebounds, 2 assists, 22 minutes. (Louisville 96, Arkansas 66)
Tennessee 124, N.C. Asheville 49 - 13 different Volunteers scored, but sophomore guard Scotty Hopson was filling up the stat sheet quicker than anyone else, tallying 25 points on 8-of-11 shooting, including hitting 6 of 7 from 3-point range. Hopson added 4 rebounds, 5 assists and a pair of steals in the all-around effort. Best of all, he did his damage in just 23 minutes on the floor. Hopson averaged 9.2 ppg last season. This year he's up to 25.5 after two games, though the competition gets tougher after December.
Notable: The College Tip-Off Marathon was a smashing success for ESPN and college hoops, especially with the two premier games going down to the wire. Gonzaga pushed #2 Michigan St. to the limit, with the Spartans finally prevailing, 75-71. Right on the heels of that contest, #1 Kansas went toe-to-toe with Memphis for the full 40, finally dropping the Tigers, 57-55. Close calls for the top two teams (preseason rankings) suggests that this season will be much like many past: lots of upsets and a general carousel around the top 10.
Louisville's Reggie Delk: 20 points, 8-9 (4-5, 3s), 5 rebounds, 2 assists, 22 minutes. (Louisville 96, Arkansas 66)
Monday, November 16, 2009
All Day Hoops as College Basketball Season Officially Opens Tuesday
Special Televised Event on ESPN to feature full day of college games
For the second year in a row, ESPN has teamed with the NCAA to present the College Hoops Tip-Off Marathon, presenting 12 games and 24 hours of continuous college basketball coverage to tip off the hoops season.
In addition, the other properties in the ESPN stable: ESPN2, ESPNU, ESPN360.com and ESPN Mobile, will also carry an extensive menu of games.
The 24 hour marathon begins with Cal State Fullerton vs. UCLA at 12:00 am ET, Tuesday morning (9:00 pm Pacific, Monday night) and end with a Dick's Sporting Goods NIT Season Tip-Off matchup from Tempe, Ariz., at 11:30 p.m. on ESPN2.
If you're not ready for this, too bad, because it's HERE!
For the second year in a row, ESPN has teamed with the NCAA to present the College Hoops Tip-Off Marathon, presenting 12 games and 24 hours of continuous college basketball coverage to tip off the hoops season.
In addition, the other properties in the ESPN stable: ESPN2, ESPNU, ESPN360.com and ESPN Mobile, will also carry an extensive menu of games.
The 24 hour marathon begins with Cal State Fullerton vs. UCLA at 12:00 am ET, Tuesday morning (9:00 pm Pacific, Monday night) and end with a Dick's Sporting Goods NIT Season Tip-Off matchup from Tempe, Ariz., at 11:30 p.m. on ESPN2.
If you're not ready for this, too bad, because it's HERE!
James Leads #3 Texas over Anteaters
College Hoops Player of the Day for Sunday, November 15, 2009
Damion James scored 21 points and hauled down 15 rebounds as #3 Texas got their 2009 campaign off to a roaring start with an 89-42 victory over the Anteaters of UC-Irvine.
Dexter Pittman matched James with 21 points, as the Longhorns put 5 players into double figures to just one for the Anteaters. The game was never in doubt, as Texas rolled to a 42-21 half time lead and continued to dominate the rest of the way.
Damion James scored 21 points and hauled down 15 rebounds as #3 Texas got their 2009 campaign off to a roaring start with an 89-42 victory over the Anteaters of UC-Irvine.
Dexter Pittman matched James with 21 points, as the Longhorns put 5 players into double figures to just one for the Anteaters. The game was never in doubt, as Texas rolled to a 42-21 half time lead and continued to dominate the rest of the way.
Sunday, November 15, 2009
Harris Triple-double Powers Michigan
College Hoops Player of the Day for Saturday, November 14, 2009
Michigan opened their 2009 campaign with a 97-50 win over Northern Michigan with ample assistance from junior guard Manny Harris, who lit it up with a triple double: 18 points, 13 rebounds, 10 assists. Senior Deshawn Sims tallied 22 with 10 boards.
Notable: Isaiah Thomas: 23 points, 4-5 on 3s, Washington 96, Belmont 78. Huskies are 2-0.
Those are the Stat Sheet Stuffers for Saturday.
Michigan opened their 2009 campaign with a 97-50 win over Northern Michigan with ample assistance from junior guard Manny Harris, who lit it up with a triple double: 18 points, 13 rebounds, 10 assists. Senior Deshawn Sims tallied 22 with 10 boards.
Notable: Isaiah Thomas: 23 points, 4-5 on 3s, Washington 96, Belmont 78. Huskies are 2-0.
Those are the Stat Sheet Stuffers for Saturday.
Saturday, November 14, 2009
Varnado Needs Support; Thomas, Henry Stand Out
College Hoops Player of the Day for Friday, November 13, 2009
It's a shame that Jarvis Varnado doesn't have much of a supporting cast at #18 Mississippi State, because h's got the kind of talent that can make an impact come tournament time. In their season opener, the Bulldogs relied too heavily on Varnado, their 6'9" senior forward, an came up short against little-known Rider College from New Jersey, losing, 88-74.
It wasn't for lack of effort from Varnado, who hit all 8 of his shots from the floor, knocked down 6 of 8 free throws, grabbed 14 rebounds and blocked 7 shots. His 22 points led all scorers, but his teammates shot a losing 18-54 from the field, a 33.3% performance that isn't going to get the job done in the SEC or any other conference, for that matter. Keep an eye on Jarvis, though, as he'll likely be heading to the pros next season.
Notable: Sophomore Isaiah Thomas poured in 30 points for the #14 Huskies as Washington topped pesky Wright State, 74-69 to open their 2009-10 campaign. Thomas, no relation to the former Detroit Piston star by the same name (different spelling: Isiah), led the Huskies in scoring in 08-09 and is off to a smart start, hitting 7 of 14 from the field, including 2 of 7 from 3-point range and 14 of 18 freebies.
#1 Kansas wasted no time in establishing themselves as the team to beat in the Big 12, with a 101-65 thumping of tiny Hofstra. The Jayhawks showed off their top recruit, freshman guard Xavier Henry, who led the scoring parade with 27 points on 8-for-12 shooting, including 5-of-8 from outside the arc and 6-6 from the charity stripe. The sharpshooting guard did all his damage in a mere 24 minutes of floor time.
It's a shame that Jarvis Varnado doesn't have much of a supporting cast at #18 Mississippi State, because h's got the kind of talent that can make an impact come tournament time. In their season opener, the Bulldogs relied too heavily on Varnado, their 6'9" senior forward, an came up short against little-known Rider College from New Jersey, losing, 88-74.
It wasn't for lack of effort from Varnado, who hit all 8 of his shots from the floor, knocked down 6 of 8 free throws, grabbed 14 rebounds and blocked 7 shots. His 22 points led all scorers, but his teammates shot a losing 18-54 from the field, a 33.3% performance that isn't going to get the job done in the SEC or any other conference, for that matter. Keep an eye on Jarvis, though, as he'll likely be heading to the pros next season.
Notable: Sophomore Isaiah Thomas poured in 30 points for the #14 Huskies as Washington topped pesky Wright State, 74-69 to open their 2009-10 campaign. Thomas, no relation to the former Detroit Piston star by the same name (different spelling: Isiah), led the Huskies in scoring in 08-09 and is off to a smart start, hitting 7 of 14 from the field, including 2 of 7 from 3-point range and 14 of 18 freebies.
#1 Kansas wasted no time in establishing themselves as the team to beat in the Big 12, with a 101-65 thumping of tiny Hofstra. The Jayhawks showed off their top recruit, freshman guard Xavier Henry, who led the scoring parade with 27 points on 8-for-12 shooting, including 5-of-8 from outside the arc and 6-6 from the charity stripe. The sharpshooting guard did all his damage in a mere 24 minutes of floor time.
College Hoops 2009-10 New Format
This marks the 6th season in which I'll be blogging on College Basketball, and every year I go through the same thought process - how can one post per day make an impact, provide readers with something entertaining and consistent, something readers can come back to daily.
What I've discovered, after years of doing Baseball on Deck, my daily in-season baseball blog, is a format which may work well for college hoops: the Player of the Day, or POTD, as I like to call it. On my baseball blog, I choose a player from each of the two leagues, National and American, who had a star performance from the previous night, write that up and link to the box score, and that seems to work well with baseball fans.
Since there aren't two leagues in the NCAA, my workload will be a little lighter, as I'll be highlighting just one player who has an outstanding on-court performance. What's nice about this format is that you can search for a player or team through the labels, or tags, and you'll get just the posts related to that player or team.
In addition, this space will also delve into standings, conference battles and other issues surrounding college hoops, plus, game previews and recaps, and more extensive coverage come tourney time.
OK, the kids are already on the court, so let's get going...
What I've discovered, after years of doing Baseball on Deck, my daily in-season baseball blog, is a format which may work well for college hoops: the Player of the Day, or POTD, as I like to call it. On my baseball blog, I choose a player from each of the two leagues, National and American, who had a star performance from the previous night, write that up and link to the box score, and that seems to work well with baseball fans.
Since there aren't two leagues in the NCAA, my workload will be a little lighter, as I'll be highlighting just one player who has an outstanding on-court performance. What's nice about this format is that you can search for a player or team through the labels, or tags, and you'll get just the posts related to that player or team.
In addition, this space will also delve into standings, conference battles and other issues surrounding college hoops, plus, game previews and recaps, and more extensive coverage come tourney time.
OK, the kids are already on the court, so let's get going...
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Monday, April 06, 2009
BLUE HEAVEN AGAIN! Tar Heels Take 5th Championship
North Carolina Tar Heels (34-4) 89, Michigan State Spartans (31-7) 72
Two teams met on the court Monday night, but one, the North Carolina Tar Heels, was clearly superior.
North Carolina rolled out to a 17-7 lead, hitting 6 of their first seven shots including 2 3-pointers and 3 of 4 free throws. Then, the Tar Heels went on a 6-1 run to lead 24-8, and expanded on that, leading by 20 or more for most of the first half. North Carolina's 55-34 lead at the break was the largest lead and highest first half point total in a championship game.
Michigan State could just not stay with the kids from the Carolinas. Wayne Ellington scored 17 first-half points, on 7 of 9 shooting, hitting all three of his 3-point attempts. Carolina was 15 of 19 from the charity stripe. In the first half, Ty Lawson tied the championship game record of 7 steals for a full game. The rout was on, and only a miracle could keep prevent the Tar Heels from their fifth national championship, and the Spartans were all out of those.
Having beaten two #1 seeds already, they found the third time more harmful than charming, as the Tar Heels maintained a double-digit lead the rest of the way. The spartans cut it to 13 points with under five minutes to play, but their 21 turnovers really hut them and they could not match North Carolina's size, speed and play in the paint, where the Heels were just plain kickin' it.
Ty Lawson, who set a new NCAA championship game record with 8 steals, led all scorers with 21 points, followed by Ellington's 19 and 18 by Tyler Hansbrough.
Ed Davis and Deon Thompson chipped in 11 and 9, respectively. For coach Roy Williams, his second national championship in six years at North Carolina was a testament to his outstanding coaching ability.
The Tar Heels were widely believed the team to beat even before the season began, and that prognosis proved true. North Carolina won the championship game by nearly the average margin they had won their first five tournament games, 21 points, showing that they were not only championship quality but truly among the elite teams of all time. Truly, throughout the 6 games, they were never really tested, except in the second round, when they were down by 1 to LSU with 5 minutes left, but won that game by 12.
They may have won the title in the city of Detroit, but nothing could be finer than to be from Carolina this time.
Two teams met on the court Monday night, but one, the North Carolina Tar Heels, was clearly superior.
North Carolina rolled out to a 17-7 lead, hitting 6 of their first seven shots including 2 3-pointers and 3 of 4 free throws. Then, the Tar Heels went on a 6-1 run to lead 24-8, and expanded on that, leading by 20 or more for most of the first half. North Carolina's 55-34 lead at the break was the largest lead and highest first half point total in a championship game.
Michigan State could just not stay with the kids from the Carolinas. Wayne Ellington scored 17 first-half points, on 7 of 9 shooting, hitting all three of his 3-point attempts. Carolina was 15 of 19 from the charity stripe. In the first half, Ty Lawson tied the championship game record of 7 steals for a full game. The rout was on, and only a miracle could keep prevent the Tar Heels from their fifth national championship, and the Spartans were all out of those.
Having beaten two #1 seeds already, they found the third time more harmful than charming, as the Tar Heels maintained a double-digit lead the rest of the way. The spartans cut it to 13 points with under five minutes to play, but their 21 turnovers really hut them and they could not match North Carolina's size, speed and play in the paint, where the Heels were just plain kickin' it.
Ty Lawson, who set a new NCAA championship game record with 8 steals, led all scorers with 21 points, followed by Ellington's 19 and 18 by Tyler Hansbrough.
Ed Davis and Deon Thompson chipped in 11 and 9, respectively. For coach Roy Williams, his second national championship in six years at North Carolina was a testament to his outstanding coaching ability.
The Tar Heels were widely believed the team to beat even before the season began, and that prognosis proved true. North Carolina won the championship game by nearly the average margin they had won their first five tournament games, 21 points, showing that they were not only championship quality but truly among the elite teams of all time. Truly, throughout the 6 games, they were never really tested, except in the second round, when they were down by 1 to LSU with 5 minutes left, but won that game by 12.
They may have won the title in the city of Detroit, but nothing could be finer than to be from Carolina this time.
Sunday, April 05, 2009
National Championship Analysis: Tar Heels vs. Spartans
Here we go with the final game of the 2008-09 college hoops season with the National Championship game Monday night at Ford Field in detroit, Michigan, pitting the Michigan State Spartans against the North Carolina Tar Heels. Tip time is 9:21 pm EDT.
North Carolina Tar Heels (33-4) (-7 1/2, 152 1/2) Michigan State Spartans (31-6)
Analysis:
How they got here (all stats for NCAA tournament only):
Michigan State beat Robert Morris, 77-62; USC, 74-69; Kansas 67-62; Louisville, 64-52; Connecticut, 82-73.
North Carolina beat Radford, 101-58; LSU, 84-70; Gonzaga, 98-77; Oklahoma, 72-60; Villanova, 83-69.
Average Points Scored
Michigan St.: 72.8
North Carolina: 87.6
Average Points Allowed:
Michigan St.: 63.6
North Carolina: 66.8
Average Margin of Victory:
Michigan St.: 9.2
North Carolina: 20.8
Just looking at the raw numbers, it's easy to see how the oddsmakers have the Tar Heels installed as 7 1/2-point favorites. If they play as they have, on average, Michigan State will score 69.8 points against North Carolina, but the Tar Heels will put in 75.7 points, so we come up with a final score of 76-70, in favor of North Carolina, meaning that the Tar Heels capture the national title, but don't cover the spread. Also, the number (146) falls short of the over/under of 152 1/2.
In the parlance of Las Vegas, this is called hedging. The Tar Heels maybe should only be favored by 6 points, and the O/U lower by 6 1/2, but owing to the idea that more people will bet the favorite, they're going to pay a premium. Those betting that Michigan State either wins or covers get an additional 1 1/2-point boost in their wager. Naturally, 1 1/2 points is nothing in a college basketball game, but the Las Vegas sharpies who calculate these things are uncanny at getting the final result right.
Further, since there are going to be more people betting on Carolina, their hope is that the Spartans pull off the upset, becaue the money line is massively tilted toward a North Carolina victory. You have to put up 360 to make 100 on a flat bet (no points) on the Tar Heels, though you could put up 100 to make 300 making a similar wager on Michigan State. Essentially, Vegas is saying that North Carolina is a 3-1 favorite, which, as most of us already know, is a pretty heavy choice.
How Carolina wins is pretty understandable. First, there's history. Earlier this season, the two teams met at the very same site, Ford Field, with Carolina romping to a 98-63 win. It was Carolina's 8th game of the season, Michigan State's 6th.
Two items stand out from that encounter. Kalin Lucas, Michigan State's point guard, scored 6 points and dished 5 assists. He's arguably a better player now than he was then, but by how much? Playing opposite Ty Lawson, who is possibly the best point guard in the nation, Lucas can't be expected to fare that much better in the final. Give him 15 points and 8 assists, and it's still a 24-point win for Carolina.
The second point is that Goran Suton, Michigan State's steady center, did not play. Suton is good for at least 12 points and 10 rebounds, even against the mighty Tar Heels. Those numbers are a little better than his season average, so give the Spartans another 12 points, plus 4 more due to the additional board strength. That still leaves Michigan State on the short end of the score by 8, which means there is hardly any way the Spartans can win this game, unless...
Draymond Green, a 6'6" freshman who plays bigger, and Delvon Roe, a 6'8" frosh, can contribute more on both ends of the floor. This is likely, since neither of them scored a single point in that December pasting, though Roe was fairly productive in his 26 minutes, with 8 boards, 3 assists and 3 blocks. Green played all of 6 minutes and fouled out. That's unlikely to happen again, considering the additional time both players are likely to see in the final.
Michigan State got an incredible 33 points from its bench in their semifinal win over UConn, many of those on layups and dunks in the fast break. will the Spartans actually try to outrun the Tar Heels. They just might, as it seems to be one way to get some quick scores and settle in on defense, which is the heart of Michigan State success.
With that in mind, the big stat - which probably won't come into play here, though it might - is that the Spartans are 30-0 when holding their opponent to less than 70 points. Of North Carolina's four losses, the lowest point total was 70, against Florida State in the ACC tournament. In the other three, they scored 75, 78 and 89. If North Carolina pours in 80 or more, their chances of winning are enormous, because Michigan State has only topped that number 4 times, the last just two days ago. The Spartans can score, but the Tar Heels - for all intents and purposes - can score more, so the idea of running on them sounds more like suicide than success.
Michigan State will throw more players into the mix, that's a given, but, even though those players may have fresh legs, they probably won't have much impact against North Carolina's impressive offense, which can hurt teams on the inside or out, with heft in the middle and gunners on the wings. Unless Michigan State comes up huge, or the Carolina kids have an off night shooting, this one looks like a pretty big win for the Tar Heels.
The other factor which may come into play is the fact that it's a virtual home game for Michigan State. Whether that matters much or at all remains to be seen. The Tar Heels are battle-tested and enjoy advantages in many aspects of the game - size, experience, three-point shooting, among the top reasons. Ty Lawson at the point and Tyler Hansbrough in the post are WMBs - Weapons of Monstrous Ballin' - who are unlikely to be denied.
Michigan State has provided some of the tournament's best moments in the regionals and semifinals, taking out the best teams from the Big East - Louisville and Connecticut - while the Tar Heels disemboweled Villanova. It's interesting, that for all the Big East hype all season long, none of their teams are represented in the national championship game. It's Big Ten vs. ACC.
One final word about this game needs to be mentioned. This North Carolina team may be one of the best ever, rivaling the great Michael Jordan-Sam Perkins-James Worthy era. If they win this game, which they should, will we someday come back to look at this national championship and say, "Wow, Ty Lawson, Tyler Hansbrough and Wayne Ellington all on the same team?" Maybe. I count as many as seven potential NBA players on the North Carolina roster right now, and there may be more. Danny Green, who has come through big during the tournament run, is not the most overlooked player on this squad, at least not now. That award would go to Deon Thompson, the 6'8" junior foward who's in on every loose ball, banging in the middle with the giants of every team, quietly doing all the little things like boxing out, swatting away shots and providing backside defense without any acclaim. He and Green make this team special.
North Carolina will win handily.
PREDICTION: North Carolina 84 Michigan State 71
North Carolina Tar Heels (33-4) (-7 1/2, 152 1/2) Michigan State Spartans (31-6)
Analysis:
How they got here (all stats for NCAA tournament only):
Michigan State beat Robert Morris, 77-62; USC, 74-69; Kansas 67-62; Louisville, 64-52; Connecticut, 82-73.
North Carolina beat Radford, 101-58; LSU, 84-70; Gonzaga, 98-77; Oklahoma, 72-60; Villanova, 83-69.
Average Points Scored
Michigan St.: 72.8
North Carolina: 87.6
Average Points Allowed:
Michigan St.: 63.6
North Carolina: 66.8
Average Margin of Victory:
Michigan St.: 9.2
North Carolina: 20.8
Just looking at the raw numbers, it's easy to see how the oddsmakers have the Tar Heels installed as 7 1/2-point favorites. If they play as they have, on average, Michigan State will score 69.8 points against North Carolina, but the Tar Heels will put in 75.7 points, so we come up with a final score of 76-70, in favor of North Carolina, meaning that the Tar Heels capture the national title, but don't cover the spread. Also, the number (146) falls short of the over/under of 152 1/2.
In the parlance of Las Vegas, this is called hedging. The Tar Heels maybe should only be favored by 6 points, and the O/U lower by 6 1/2, but owing to the idea that more people will bet the favorite, they're going to pay a premium. Those betting that Michigan State either wins or covers get an additional 1 1/2-point boost in their wager. Naturally, 1 1/2 points is nothing in a college basketball game, but the Las Vegas sharpies who calculate these things are uncanny at getting the final result right.
Further, since there are going to be more people betting on Carolina, their hope is that the Spartans pull off the upset, becaue the money line is massively tilted toward a North Carolina victory. You have to put up 360 to make 100 on a flat bet (no points) on the Tar Heels, though you could put up 100 to make 300 making a similar wager on Michigan State. Essentially, Vegas is saying that North Carolina is a 3-1 favorite, which, as most of us already know, is a pretty heavy choice.
How Carolina wins is pretty understandable. First, there's history. Earlier this season, the two teams met at the very same site, Ford Field, with Carolina romping to a 98-63 win. It was Carolina's 8th game of the season, Michigan State's 6th.
Two items stand out from that encounter. Kalin Lucas, Michigan State's point guard, scored 6 points and dished 5 assists. He's arguably a better player now than he was then, but by how much? Playing opposite Ty Lawson, who is possibly the best point guard in the nation, Lucas can't be expected to fare that much better in the final. Give him 15 points and 8 assists, and it's still a 24-point win for Carolina.
The second point is that Goran Suton, Michigan State's steady center, did not play. Suton is good for at least 12 points and 10 rebounds, even against the mighty Tar Heels. Those numbers are a little better than his season average, so give the Spartans another 12 points, plus 4 more due to the additional board strength. That still leaves Michigan State on the short end of the score by 8, which means there is hardly any way the Spartans can win this game, unless...
Draymond Green, a 6'6" freshman who plays bigger, and Delvon Roe, a 6'8" frosh, can contribute more on both ends of the floor. This is likely, since neither of them scored a single point in that December pasting, though Roe was fairly productive in his 26 minutes, with 8 boards, 3 assists and 3 blocks. Green played all of 6 minutes and fouled out. That's unlikely to happen again, considering the additional time both players are likely to see in the final.
Michigan State got an incredible 33 points from its bench in their semifinal win over UConn, many of those on layups and dunks in the fast break. will the Spartans actually try to outrun the Tar Heels. They just might, as it seems to be one way to get some quick scores and settle in on defense, which is the heart of Michigan State success.
With that in mind, the big stat - which probably won't come into play here, though it might - is that the Spartans are 30-0 when holding their opponent to less than 70 points. Of North Carolina's four losses, the lowest point total was 70, against Florida State in the ACC tournament. In the other three, they scored 75, 78 and 89. If North Carolina pours in 80 or more, their chances of winning are enormous, because Michigan State has only topped that number 4 times, the last just two days ago. The Spartans can score, but the Tar Heels - for all intents and purposes - can score more, so the idea of running on them sounds more like suicide than success.
Michigan State will throw more players into the mix, that's a given, but, even though those players may have fresh legs, they probably won't have much impact against North Carolina's impressive offense, which can hurt teams on the inside or out, with heft in the middle and gunners on the wings. Unless Michigan State comes up huge, or the Carolina kids have an off night shooting, this one looks like a pretty big win for the Tar Heels.
The other factor which may come into play is the fact that it's a virtual home game for Michigan State. Whether that matters much or at all remains to be seen. The Tar Heels are battle-tested and enjoy advantages in many aspects of the game - size, experience, three-point shooting, among the top reasons. Ty Lawson at the point and Tyler Hansbrough in the post are WMBs - Weapons of Monstrous Ballin' - who are unlikely to be denied.
Michigan State has provided some of the tournament's best moments in the regionals and semifinals, taking out the best teams from the Big East - Louisville and Connecticut - while the Tar Heels disemboweled Villanova. It's interesting, that for all the Big East hype all season long, none of their teams are represented in the national championship game. It's Big Ten vs. ACC.
One final word about this game needs to be mentioned. This North Carolina team may be one of the best ever, rivaling the great Michael Jordan-Sam Perkins-James Worthy era. If they win this game, which they should, will we someday come back to look at this national championship and say, "Wow, Ty Lawson, Tyler Hansbrough and Wayne Ellington all on the same team?" Maybe. I count as many as seven potential NBA players on the North Carolina roster right now, and there may be more. Danny Green, who has come through big during the tournament run, is not the most overlooked player on this squad, at least not now. That award would go to Deon Thompson, the 6'8" junior foward who's in on every loose ball, banging in the middle with the giants of every team, quietly doing all the little things like boxing out, swatting away shots and providing backside defense without any acclaim. He and Green make this team special.
North Carolina will win handily.
PREDICTION: North Carolina 84 Michigan State 71
Saturday, April 04, 2009
It's Spartans vs. Tar Heels for the National Championship!
In college basketball, coaching matters. Having either more contributors or just better players also makes a difference. But both Michigan State and North Carolina made it though the meat-grinder that is the NCAA tournament largely because the respective coaches - Michigan State's Tom Izzo and North Carolina's Roy Williams - have been there before, guiding their youthful charges to overcome the hype, media, fans, confusion and pressure that are obstacles along the way to achieving the lofty goal of one shining moment.
What began more than a fortnight ago with 65 teams, has now been whittled down to just two. Here's how each team fared in their last outing. More detailed analysis will follow tomorrow in anticipation of the national title game.
(2) Michigan State 82, (1) Connecticut 73
ESPN Box Score
The stats don't like for the Spartans. They are simply unbeatable (30-0) when holding opponents under 70 points, and while this one doesn't qualify technically, it had all of the earmarks of a Michigan State, defense-first victory. The game was, as are many of the Spartans wins of this 2008-09 vintage, closely played, with neither team able to gather an advantage though the first half, which ended with Michigan State up by 2 points, 38-36.
Michigan State took control early in the second half, when consecutive layups by Kalin Lucas and Chris Allen gave the Spartans a 53-49 lead with just over 13 minutes left. After that, they would never trail or be tied again. Failure to hit anything from the perimeter by the Huskies allowed Michigan State defenders to pack the lane and make entry passes difficult for UConn. As usual, every shot was contested, and as the Huskies struggled for offense, the Spartan lead expanded to 8, then 10, then finally, 11, on Raymar Morgan's dunk at 3:21.
Morgan was one of the difference-makers for Michigan State, scoring 18 points and 9 boards, his best outing in the tournament. Lucas led all scorers with 21. The Spartans got an incredible 33 points from their bench. In the basketball world of Tom Izzo, it's still a team game. Everybody plays, and that was one of the most decisive aspects of this win. The Connecticut players were simply outmanned in the end as Izzo shuffled players in and out of the game throughout.
(1) North Carolina 83, (3) Villanova 69
ESPN Box Score
In stark contrast to the first game, North Carolina's explosive offense made this one rather one-sided right away, establishing a big early lead, hitting 10 f their first 15 shots, 3 of them from beyond the arc. Less than 10 minutes in, it was 26-12 and the Tar Heels just continued to roll along. Villanova eventually cut the lead down to 9 at the break, and to 5 early in the second half, but North Carolina responded to the challenge and played at a high tempo throughout.
While the tar Heels raced up and down and around the Wildcats, Villanova could not buy a bucket, especially from three-point range, where they hit just 4 of 28. By comparison, the Tar Heels were more efficient, nailing 11-22 threes.
Wayne Ellington and Danny Green were the deadliest bombers for Carolina. Green hit 4 of 10, while Ellington splashed 5 of 7. Ty Lawson was the game's high scorer, with 22 points; Tyler Hansbrough had his second double-double of the tournament, scoring 17 points and pulling down 11 rebounds.
What began more than a fortnight ago with 65 teams, has now been whittled down to just two. Here's how each team fared in their last outing. More detailed analysis will follow tomorrow in anticipation of the national title game.
(2) Michigan State 82, (1) Connecticut 73
ESPN Box Score
The stats don't like for the Spartans. They are simply unbeatable (30-0) when holding opponents under 70 points, and while this one doesn't qualify technically, it had all of the earmarks of a Michigan State, defense-first victory. The game was, as are many of the Spartans wins of this 2008-09 vintage, closely played, with neither team able to gather an advantage though the first half, which ended with Michigan State up by 2 points, 38-36.
Michigan State took control early in the second half, when consecutive layups by Kalin Lucas and Chris Allen gave the Spartans a 53-49 lead with just over 13 minutes left. After that, they would never trail or be tied again. Failure to hit anything from the perimeter by the Huskies allowed Michigan State defenders to pack the lane and make entry passes difficult for UConn. As usual, every shot was contested, and as the Huskies struggled for offense, the Spartan lead expanded to 8, then 10, then finally, 11, on Raymar Morgan's dunk at 3:21.
Morgan was one of the difference-makers for Michigan State, scoring 18 points and 9 boards, his best outing in the tournament. Lucas led all scorers with 21. The Spartans got an incredible 33 points from their bench. In the basketball world of Tom Izzo, it's still a team game. Everybody plays, and that was one of the most decisive aspects of this win. The Connecticut players were simply outmanned in the end as Izzo shuffled players in and out of the game throughout.
(1) North Carolina 83, (3) Villanova 69
ESPN Box Score
In stark contrast to the first game, North Carolina's explosive offense made this one rather one-sided right away, establishing a big early lead, hitting 10 f their first 15 shots, 3 of them from beyond the arc. Less than 10 minutes in, it was 26-12 and the Tar Heels just continued to roll along. Villanova eventually cut the lead down to 9 at the break, and to 5 early in the second half, but North Carolina responded to the challenge and played at a high tempo throughout.
While the tar Heels raced up and down and around the Wildcats, Villanova could not buy a bucket, especially from three-point range, where they hit just 4 of 28. By comparison, the Tar Heels were more efficient, nailing 11-22 threes.
Wayne Ellington and Danny Green were the deadliest bombers for Carolina. Green hit 4 of 10, while Ellington splashed 5 of 7. Ty Lawson was the game's high scorer, with 22 points; Tyler Hansbrough had his second double-double of the tournament, scoring 17 points and pulling down 11 rebounds.
Friday, April 03, 2009
Final Four Analysis (Part 2) North Carolina vs. Villanova
Final Four Game 2, Saturday, April 4, 2009
Ford Field, Detroit, MI
(1) North Carolina (32-4) (-7, 158 1/2) (3) Villanova (30-7) 8:47 pm - The dark horse from the Big East, Villanova, is also possibly the most balanced and talented team overall from the conference. It's fitting that they'll face off with North Carolina, as both teams possess very subtle, but important similarities. Both teams are solid in the backcourt, strong up front, rebounds well and has no single player without which they cannot survive, though it could be argued that if Carolina is without either point guard Ty Lawson or forward Tyler Hansbrough, or the Wildcats are missing Dante Cunningham or Scottie Reynolds, their games would suffer on both ends.
So, there are the first and second similarities, at point guard and strong forward, where the Tar Heels seem to have edges. While Reynolds is as fine a point guard as can be found, Lawson is simply extraordinary, a gifted ball-handler with speed and quickness that has yet to be matched in this tournament. Where Reynolds evens things out, however, is in the strength department. Lawson probably won't be able to handle Reynolds man-to-man, and that could cause trouble for North Carolina. It's easy to see how both point guards will be able to penetrate into the lane and raise havoc. In that regard, the matchup becomes a draw.
In the power forward area, Tyler Hansbrough has a heft advantage over Cunningham. He is the more physical of the two, though Cunningham has better range and is quicker on his feet, so once again, the edge, if there is one, is marginal. Both players can play to their strengths within the offense. Look for Cunningham to set up either at the foul line or on the wing away from the basket. From either of those positions, he can either aid the offense with ball movement and screens or, should he so choose, shoot over Hansbrough while also drawing him away from the basket.
When Hansbrough is on offense, he'll want to be active in the low post, where he can hope to overpower his opponent for layups and dunks or feeds to his teammates for the same.
Cunningham will stand his ground, though he's not going to get a whole lot of help from teammates, and Carolina can also go very large, inserting either of their big freshmen, 6'10" Ed Davis or 7'0" Tyler Zeller. 6'8 Deon Thompson starts and plays much bigger. Compare those beasts with what Villanova puts on the floor. Cunningham is 6'8", Dwayne Anderson checks in at 6'6", and sub Shane Clark is 6'7". Also crashing the board will be Reggie Redding, who goes 6.5", but the Tar Heels have an obvious height edge in the lane.
A wild card in this game, as he usually is, is Danny Green, who lit up Oklahoma for 18 points in the Tar Heels' 72-60 win. Green is a do-it-all kind of player who will stick his nose in anywhere, can get out on the break, hit jumpers and rebound with the big boys. His counterpart on the Wildcats is Anderson, who has had some big games during the tournament, is seasoned and capable of guarding the best athletes on the floor. Again, whatever advantage North Carolina has with Green, it is offset by the defensive abilities by the corresponding Villanova player.
If there's an edge in terms of coaching, it has to go to Roy Williams, who is making his 7th appearance in the Final Four and has a championship ring, earned in 2005 with the Tar Heels. Villanova coach Jay Wright is the only coach in the Final Four (his first) without an NCAA championship. Williams has an experience edge. Wright will get some here.
In the final analysis, North Carolina looks indomitable on the inside and, with Lawson healthy, he's going to be difficult for even Reynolds to contain. The overall size and depth of the Tar Heel bench, plus the smarts of coach Williams makes North Carolina the team most likely to advance. Villanova's defense and heart will keep them in the game and not allow the Tar Heels to establish a huge runaway lead, but down the stretch, North Carolina has the players who can come up with the really big plays in Lawson, Hansbrough and Green. They're no lock to cover the spread, which will probably come down to the final minutes and free throws vs. three-pointers, but they seem capable of prevailing. The Over/Under is an equally risky proposition, as the oddsmakers seem to have that number nailed.
PREDICTION: North Carolina 85 Villanova 75
Ford Field, Detroit, MI
(1) North Carolina (32-4) (-7, 158 1/2) (3) Villanova (30-7) 8:47 pm - The dark horse from the Big East, Villanova, is also possibly the most balanced and talented team overall from the conference. It's fitting that they'll face off with North Carolina, as both teams possess very subtle, but important similarities. Both teams are solid in the backcourt, strong up front, rebounds well and has no single player without which they cannot survive, though it could be argued that if Carolina is without either point guard Ty Lawson or forward Tyler Hansbrough, or the Wildcats are missing Dante Cunningham or Scottie Reynolds, their games would suffer on both ends.
So, there are the first and second similarities, at point guard and strong forward, where the Tar Heels seem to have edges. While Reynolds is as fine a point guard as can be found, Lawson is simply extraordinary, a gifted ball-handler with speed and quickness that has yet to be matched in this tournament. Where Reynolds evens things out, however, is in the strength department. Lawson probably won't be able to handle Reynolds man-to-man, and that could cause trouble for North Carolina. It's easy to see how both point guards will be able to penetrate into the lane and raise havoc. In that regard, the matchup becomes a draw.
In the power forward area, Tyler Hansbrough has a heft advantage over Cunningham. He is the more physical of the two, though Cunningham has better range and is quicker on his feet, so once again, the edge, if there is one, is marginal. Both players can play to their strengths within the offense. Look for Cunningham to set up either at the foul line or on the wing away from the basket. From either of those positions, he can either aid the offense with ball movement and screens or, should he so choose, shoot over Hansbrough while also drawing him away from the basket.
When Hansbrough is on offense, he'll want to be active in the low post, where he can hope to overpower his opponent for layups and dunks or feeds to his teammates for the same.
Cunningham will stand his ground, though he's not going to get a whole lot of help from teammates, and Carolina can also go very large, inserting either of their big freshmen, 6'10" Ed Davis or 7'0" Tyler Zeller. 6'8 Deon Thompson starts and plays much bigger. Compare those beasts with what Villanova puts on the floor. Cunningham is 6'8", Dwayne Anderson checks in at 6'6", and sub Shane Clark is 6'7". Also crashing the board will be Reggie Redding, who goes 6.5", but the Tar Heels have an obvious height edge in the lane.
A wild card in this game, as he usually is, is Danny Green, who lit up Oklahoma for 18 points in the Tar Heels' 72-60 win. Green is a do-it-all kind of player who will stick his nose in anywhere, can get out on the break, hit jumpers and rebound with the big boys. His counterpart on the Wildcats is Anderson, who has had some big games during the tournament, is seasoned and capable of guarding the best athletes on the floor. Again, whatever advantage North Carolina has with Green, it is offset by the defensive abilities by the corresponding Villanova player.
If there's an edge in terms of coaching, it has to go to Roy Williams, who is making his 7th appearance in the Final Four and has a championship ring, earned in 2005 with the Tar Heels. Villanova coach Jay Wright is the only coach in the Final Four (his first) without an NCAA championship. Williams has an experience edge. Wright will get some here.
In the final analysis, North Carolina looks indomitable on the inside and, with Lawson healthy, he's going to be difficult for even Reynolds to contain. The overall size and depth of the Tar Heel bench, plus the smarts of coach Williams makes North Carolina the team most likely to advance. Villanova's defense and heart will keep them in the game and not allow the Tar Heels to establish a huge runaway lead, but down the stretch, North Carolina has the players who can come up with the really big plays in Lawson, Hansbrough and Green. They're no lock to cover the spread, which will probably come down to the final minutes and free throws vs. three-pointers, but they seem capable of prevailing. The Over/Under is an equally risky proposition, as the oddsmakers seem to have that number nailed.
PREDICTION: North Carolina 85 Villanova 75
Thursday, April 02, 2009
Final Four Analysis (Part 1) Michigan St. vs. Connecticut
Final Four Game 1, Saturday, April 4, 2009
Ford Field, Detroit, MI
(1) Connecticut (31-4) (-4, 131 1/2) (2) Michigan State (30-6) 6:07 pm - Hoops fans could not have asked for a more balanced Final Four, with two teams from the nation's best conference, the Big East, and one each from the Big Ten and ACC. Interestingly, two of the three Big East #1 seeds did not make it to Detroit, as Louisville - the #1 overall seed - and Pitt were ousted in their respected regional finals. However, Villanova picked up the Big East slack, by beating Pitt but still representing the conference.
In the matchup between UConn and Michigan State, the player which stands out most prominently is the Huskies' 7'3" man in the middle, Hasheem Thabeet, who is a terror to anyone who dares drive to the tin, swatting away would be layups with alarming regularity. Keeping Thabeet out of foul trouble will be coach Jim Calhoun's main concern. For Tom Izzo, finding a way around, over or through the big guy is the challenge.
Izzo used an interesting ploy in his win over Louisville, spotting his own big man, Goran Suton, at the high post offensively. Suton responded with key jumpers, three of them 3-pointers, four assists and 10 boards (4 offensive). He proved to be the absolute key to beating the Cardinals by sticking to the coach's plan and executing to perfection. Should Izzo determine to employ the same tactic, Connecticut will be not caught unaware. They can either choose to send Thabeet out to play man-to-man on Suton, though that would open up the inside, where Michigan's slashers and drivers, particularly point guard Kalin Lucas and Raymar Morgan (shut out against the Cardinals) might just find a happy place in the lane.
Calhoun has other options, however, one being keeping Thabeet in the low post and putting the more athletic Stanley Robinson on Suton to limit his effectiveness by contesting his shots or denying him the ball. Robinson is a good match for Suton, being just an inch shorter than the 6'10" Spartan.
Besides Suton, Michigan State has some limitations when it comes to offense, though the play of Lucas during the late regular season and into the post-season has been a real boost for Michigan State. He is speedy and a deft ball-handler, though he's prone to hoisting treys more often than coach Izzo might like. Almost as comic relief, Lucas has been hitting at a respectable 40% during the tournament, including 2-of-4 against Louisville.
The other Spartan player who's been a boost during the tournament is Durrell Summers, who filled in the scoring nicely over the past three games, scoring 11 against USC, 9 against Kansas and 12 against the cardinals. His contribution and ability to bury a number of treys (4 of 6 during the tournament) will be another key to Michigan State's success.
For the Huskies, they cannot rely heavily upon Thabeet for scoring because he does so much work on defense, though sending the ball into the low post and trying to get Suton in foul trouble is a ploy Calhoun no doubt has under consideration. The bulk of the scoring will come from A.J. Price (averaging 20 ppg in the NCAAs), point guard Kemba Walker (who exploded for 23 against Missouri) and Robinson (15 ppg). Craig Austrie has been inconsistent, missing all 6 of his three-point attempts in the Huskies' opener against Chattanooga, but going 3-for-3 beyond the arc and scoring 17 points against Purdue.
Getting points against the stingy Spartan defense will not be easy for Connecticut. All of their players are hard-nosed defenders, and Lucas is probably a bit of an overmatch for Walker at the point. Though Walker should hold his own, don't expect him to blow by Lucas more than a couple times. The Michigan State point guard is the embodiment of quickness and speed.
If the pace of the game is to Michigan's liking, forcing the Huskies to work hard for every basket, they may be able to get out on the break on a number of occasions. Suton is especially good at getting up and down the floor in a hurry, while Thabeet is not. Expect the Michigan State big man to be on the receiving end of a number of passes to the post or the happy trailer on the break.
The real kicker in this game is UConn's Jeff Adrian and his ability to hit jumpers from inside 15 feet. When he's on, the Huskies are virtually unbeatable. When he's not, which is often enough to raise concerns, UConn is vulnerable.
If there is one big key or stat it's this: Michigan is 30-0 when holding opponents under 70 points. While Connecticut can generally put up 75 points or more, they do have 9 wins (and 3 losses) when they have scored in the 60s, so they are capable of playing the defense-first game as well. It would not be a surprise for the Huskies to score 65 points and win, though a final score in that range surely works in Michigan State's favor.
Both coaches have been here before, and Calhoun has a pair of championship rings to Izzo's one, so there's no advantage when it comes to sideline smarts. Bottom line, this could go either way. Giving Michigan State points at this juncture might just be a mistake, as they've turned back the critics with crisp play thus far and have shown incredible heart and desire, key factors in tournament play. Take the points and hope nobody scores for the first five minutes. That will help Michigan State's confidence.
PREDICTION: Michigan State 67 Connecticut 63
Tomorrow: Part 2: Villanova vs. North Carolina
Ford Field, Detroit, MI
(1) Connecticut (31-4) (-4, 131 1/2) (2) Michigan State (30-6) 6:07 pm - Hoops fans could not have asked for a more balanced Final Four, with two teams from the nation's best conference, the Big East, and one each from the Big Ten and ACC. Interestingly, two of the three Big East #1 seeds did not make it to Detroit, as Louisville - the #1 overall seed - and Pitt were ousted in their respected regional finals. However, Villanova picked up the Big East slack, by beating Pitt but still representing the conference.
In the matchup between UConn and Michigan State, the player which stands out most prominently is the Huskies' 7'3" man in the middle, Hasheem Thabeet, who is a terror to anyone who dares drive to the tin, swatting away would be layups with alarming regularity. Keeping Thabeet out of foul trouble will be coach Jim Calhoun's main concern. For Tom Izzo, finding a way around, over or through the big guy is the challenge.
Izzo used an interesting ploy in his win over Louisville, spotting his own big man, Goran Suton, at the high post offensively. Suton responded with key jumpers, three of them 3-pointers, four assists and 10 boards (4 offensive). He proved to be the absolute key to beating the Cardinals by sticking to the coach's plan and executing to perfection. Should Izzo determine to employ the same tactic, Connecticut will be not caught unaware. They can either choose to send Thabeet out to play man-to-man on Suton, though that would open up the inside, where Michigan's slashers and drivers, particularly point guard Kalin Lucas and Raymar Morgan (shut out against the Cardinals) might just find a happy place in the lane.
Calhoun has other options, however, one being keeping Thabeet in the low post and putting the more athletic Stanley Robinson on Suton to limit his effectiveness by contesting his shots or denying him the ball. Robinson is a good match for Suton, being just an inch shorter than the 6'10" Spartan.
Besides Suton, Michigan State has some limitations when it comes to offense, though the play of Lucas during the late regular season and into the post-season has been a real boost for Michigan State. He is speedy and a deft ball-handler, though he's prone to hoisting treys more often than coach Izzo might like. Almost as comic relief, Lucas has been hitting at a respectable 40% during the tournament, including 2-of-4 against Louisville.
The other Spartan player who's been a boost during the tournament is Durrell Summers, who filled in the scoring nicely over the past three games, scoring 11 against USC, 9 against Kansas and 12 against the cardinals. His contribution and ability to bury a number of treys (4 of 6 during the tournament) will be another key to Michigan State's success.
For the Huskies, they cannot rely heavily upon Thabeet for scoring because he does so much work on defense, though sending the ball into the low post and trying to get Suton in foul trouble is a ploy Calhoun no doubt has under consideration. The bulk of the scoring will come from A.J. Price (averaging 20 ppg in the NCAAs), point guard Kemba Walker (who exploded for 23 against Missouri) and Robinson (15 ppg). Craig Austrie has been inconsistent, missing all 6 of his three-point attempts in the Huskies' opener against Chattanooga, but going 3-for-3 beyond the arc and scoring 17 points against Purdue.
Getting points against the stingy Spartan defense will not be easy for Connecticut. All of their players are hard-nosed defenders, and Lucas is probably a bit of an overmatch for Walker at the point. Though Walker should hold his own, don't expect him to blow by Lucas more than a couple times. The Michigan State point guard is the embodiment of quickness and speed.
If the pace of the game is to Michigan's liking, forcing the Huskies to work hard for every basket, they may be able to get out on the break on a number of occasions. Suton is especially good at getting up and down the floor in a hurry, while Thabeet is not. Expect the Michigan State big man to be on the receiving end of a number of passes to the post or the happy trailer on the break.
The real kicker in this game is UConn's Jeff Adrian and his ability to hit jumpers from inside 15 feet. When he's on, the Huskies are virtually unbeatable. When he's not, which is often enough to raise concerns, UConn is vulnerable.
If there is one big key or stat it's this: Michigan is 30-0 when holding opponents under 70 points. While Connecticut can generally put up 75 points or more, they do have 9 wins (and 3 losses) when they have scored in the 60s, so they are capable of playing the defense-first game as well. It would not be a surprise for the Huskies to score 65 points and win, though a final score in that range surely works in Michigan State's favor.
Both coaches have been here before, and Calhoun has a pair of championship rings to Izzo's one, so there's no advantage when it comes to sideline smarts. Bottom line, this could go either way. Giving Michigan State points at this juncture might just be a mistake, as they've turned back the critics with crisp play thus far and have shown incredible heart and desire, key factors in tournament play. Take the points and hope nobody scores for the first five minutes. That will help Michigan State's confidence.
PREDICTION: Michigan State 67 Connecticut 63
Tomorrow: Part 2: Villanova vs. North Carolina
Sunday, March 29, 2009
FINAL FOUR: Huskies, Wildcats, Spartans and Tar Heels Head to Motor City
How they got there: Recaps of the Regional Finals
West: (1) Connecticut 82, (3) Missouri 75 - The Huskies were undaunted by Missouri's pressure and built a 13-point lead only to have the Tigers whittle it down and eventually take the lead back, by a point, with less than 6 minutes left. From that point onward, Connecticut stepped up the defense and made shots and freebies when they had to. Missouri continued to try to cut into the advantage, but Kemba Walker and A.J. Price controlled the backcourt tempo for the prevailing Huskies. Walker had the game of his life, outscoring everybody with 23 points while dishing 5 assists and snatching 5 rebounds. Price scored 18 points for UConn, which hit only 2 of 12 3-pointers, turned the ball over 17 times to Missouri's 6, but controlled the paint, outrebounding the Tigers, 47-32.
Midwest: (2) Michigan St. 64, (1) Louisville 52 - Tom Izzo's defensive-minded Spartans limited Louisville to their second-lowest point total of the season ending the Cardinals' 13-game win streak while rewarding themselves with a virtual home game in Detroit at the Final Four. Michigan State's fearless defenders took Louisville out of their game and outhustled them at every opportunity. Louisville shot just 38% (18-47), including a respectable 6-16 from beyond the arc, but the Spartans shot 45% and outdueled Louisville in the paint, grabbing 37 boards to Louisville's 28.
Michigan State's big man, Goran Suton, positioning himself 15 to 18 feet from the basket on offense, kept getting open looks and hitting them, sharing game-high honors with Louisville's Earl Clark at 19 points. Suton also managed to corral 10 rebounds and fed his teammates with 4 assists.
East: (3) Villanova 78, (1) Pittsburgh 76 - This one figured to be close all the way and it was, ending finally on Scottie Reynolds' four-footer in the lane with 1/2 second left. Both teams played their hearts out, but Villanova ended up with the last possession at 8 seconds from the final buzzer and they made their play. There was nothing more Pitt could do to win this game; they were simply one-upped by another team from Pennsylvania. For the Panthers, Sam Young had 28 points to lead all scorers, and deJuan Blair recorded his usual double-double, with 20 points and 10 rebounds.
Villanova's scoring was led by Dwayne Anderson with 17, followed by Reynolds with 15 and Dante Cunningham's 15. The Wildcats did everything right, as did Pitt, in the tournament's best-played game. Villanova was actually outshot by the Panthers, 48% to 45%, but the Wildcats won it at the line, hitting 22 of 23 free throws.
South: (1) North Carolina 72, (2) Oklahoma 60 - The much-anticipated mano-a-mano between Tyler Hansbrough and Blake Griffin never really materialized as Hansbrough was saddled with fouls early and had to sit out much of the first half. By the numbers, Griffin outplayed North Carolina's Psycho-T, scoring 23 points with 16 rebounds. Hansbrough had 8 and 6, though Carolina's lead expanded and Griffin's scoring was limited with Hansbrough on the floor.
Otherwise, the game went almost completely north Carolina's way thanks to Ty Lawson and Danny Green. Lawson, virtually unchecked at the point, scored 19 points and had 5 rebounds and 5 assists. Green scored 18 on 6 of 9 shooting. Both players hit 2 of 4 3-pointers.
Once the Tar Heels had established a first half lead of 11 points, they maintained a similar edge throughout most of the remainder of the game. The Sooners were pathetic from outside, missing their first 15 3-point attempts until 5:14 left in the second half when Willie Warren finally splashed one in the middle of a 9-0 late Sooner run. Oklahoma got to within 12 points after the tar Heels had led by as many as 19, but failed to get any closer, going xxx from beyond the arc.
In the semifinal games to be played Saturday, April 4 at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan, the Connecticut Huskies face Michigan State and the Tar Heels meet Villanova.
The Final will be played Monday night, April 6.
West: (1) Connecticut 82, (3) Missouri 75 - The Huskies were undaunted by Missouri's pressure and built a 13-point lead only to have the Tigers whittle it down and eventually take the lead back, by a point, with less than 6 minutes left. From that point onward, Connecticut stepped up the defense and made shots and freebies when they had to. Missouri continued to try to cut into the advantage, but Kemba Walker and A.J. Price controlled the backcourt tempo for the prevailing Huskies. Walker had the game of his life, outscoring everybody with 23 points while dishing 5 assists and snatching 5 rebounds. Price scored 18 points for UConn, which hit only 2 of 12 3-pointers, turned the ball over 17 times to Missouri's 6, but controlled the paint, outrebounding the Tigers, 47-32.
Midwest: (2) Michigan St. 64, (1) Louisville 52 - Tom Izzo's defensive-minded Spartans limited Louisville to their second-lowest point total of the season ending the Cardinals' 13-game win streak while rewarding themselves with a virtual home game in Detroit at the Final Four. Michigan State's fearless defenders took Louisville out of their game and outhustled them at every opportunity. Louisville shot just 38% (18-47), including a respectable 6-16 from beyond the arc, but the Spartans shot 45% and outdueled Louisville in the paint, grabbing 37 boards to Louisville's 28.
Michigan State's big man, Goran Suton, positioning himself 15 to 18 feet from the basket on offense, kept getting open looks and hitting them, sharing game-high honors with Louisville's Earl Clark at 19 points. Suton also managed to corral 10 rebounds and fed his teammates with 4 assists.
East: (3) Villanova 78, (1) Pittsburgh 76 - This one figured to be close all the way and it was, ending finally on Scottie Reynolds' four-footer in the lane with 1/2 second left. Both teams played their hearts out, but Villanova ended up with the last possession at 8 seconds from the final buzzer and they made their play. There was nothing more Pitt could do to win this game; they were simply one-upped by another team from Pennsylvania. For the Panthers, Sam Young had 28 points to lead all scorers, and deJuan Blair recorded his usual double-double, with 20 points and 10 rebounds.
Villanova's scoring was led by Dwayne Anderson with 17, followed by Reynolds with 15 and Dante Cunningham's 15. The Wildcats did everything right, as did Pitt, in the tournament's best-played game. Villanova was actually outshot by the Panthers, 48% to 45%, but the Wildcats won it at the line, hitting 22 of 23 free throws.
South: (1) North Carolina 72, (2) Oklahoma 60 - The much-anticipated mano-a-mano between Tyler Hansbrough and Blake Griffin never really materialized as Hansbrough was saddled with fouls early and had to sit out much of the first half. By the numbers, Griffin outplayed North Carolina's Psycho-T, scoring 23 points with 16 rebounds. Hansbrough had 8 and 6, though Carolina's lead expanded and Griffin's scoring was limited with Hansbrough on the floor.
Otherwise, the game went almost completely north Carolina's way thanks to Ty Lawson and Danny Green. Lawson, virtually unchecked at the point, scored 19 points and had 5 rebounds and 5 assists. Green scored 18 on 6 of 9 shooting. Both players hit 2 of 4 3-pointers.
Once the Tar Heels had established a first half lead of 11 points, they maintained a similar edge throughout most of the remainder of the game. The Sooners were pathetic from outside, missing their first 15 3-point attempts until 5:14 left in the second half when Willie Warren finally splashed one in the middle of a 9-0 late Sooner run. Oklahoma got to within 12 points after the tar Heels had led by as many as 19, but failed to get any closer, going xxx from beyond the arc.
In the semifinal games to be played Saturday, April 4 at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan, the Connecticut Huskies face Michigan State and the Tar Heels meet Villanova.
The Final will be played Monday night, April 6.
Saturday, March 28, 2009
Regional Finals, Elite Eight Picks
West Regional Finals, Saturday, March 28
University of Phoenix Stadium (Glendale, AZ)
(1) Connecticut (30-4) (-6, 150) (3) Missouri (31-6) 4:40 pm EDT - Don't believe that Missouri's win over Memphis was a kind of fluke or that Memphis wasn't a high quality team. Nobody wins 27 straight without doing something right, but the Memphis Tigers ran into a bengal of another stripe in Missouri, one which pressed and contested every pass and dribble, throwing Memphis off their game. Even then, Memphis hung in, finally succumbing, 102-91, the highest-scoring game of the tournament, which says plenty about the quality of both teams.
Missouri can click on offense when it gets contributions outside of Leo Lyons and DeMarre Carroll, which it did Thursday as J.T. Tiller whipped and whizzed through the Memphis defense like a gyroscopic genie out of its bottle. Tiller led Missouri with 23 points on 10-16 shooting and his slashing style will be paramount in getting to the tin against UConn's shot-swatting Hasheem Thabeet.
Missouri must push the ball into the lane in order to be successful against Connecticut, hoping to get Thabeet into foul trouble. That seems to be just about the only way to slow down the 7'3" center - limit his playing time to under 25 minutes - and Missouri, with Tiller, Lyons (who will be on Thabeet's hip through most of the proceedings), and Carroll, all of whom love to mix it up underneath, possesses the right kind of offense.
The Tigers should create havoc for the Huskies on defense as well, their pressure style making it difficult for UConn to get into their offense early. The Huskies are basically inept from beyond the arc, so Missouri may find some opportunity to mix up the half-court defense with box-and-one, man to man and maybe even a 2-3 zone look. That will clog the lane, and the Tigers will be a force on the boards against the statuesque Connecticut big men.
UConn's win over Purdue was an ugly thing, despite the statistical edge in most categories. While the Huskies shot a respectable 45% from the field, A.J. Price and Jeff Adrien, the two players who took the most shots, were a combined 8-for-28 and only Craig Austrie was able to hit a three-pointer, canning all three of his attempts. He's not likely to repeat that against Missouri. The Tigers will likely allow Adrien to shoot form anywhere beyond 10 feet, as he has all of the touch of a sledge-hammer on a railway line.
Long story short, Connecticut simply doesn't have enough quality pure shooters to remain competitive for long at this level. Consider their pair of losses to Pittsburgh an early warning sign that they may not be the best fit for a Final Four jumpsuit. Missouri is on a mission, and the Huskies will find their timing thrown completely off and their shooting to be wanting.
PREDICTION: Missouri 85 Connecticut 82
East Regional Finals, Saturday, March 28
TD Banknorth Garden (Boston, MA)
(1) Pittsburgh (31-4) (-2, 142) (3) Villanova (29-7) 7:05 pm EDT - Every game for Villanova seems to provide matchup difficulties and tough-to-call scenarios, but the Wildcats keep winning, increasing their margin of victory with each successive foray into the tournament - 13 over American, 20 over UCLA and 23 over Duke, possibly their most dominant performance of the season. Jay Wright's Wildcats are peaking at the right time and are ready for a real cat fight with the Panthers.
The Panthers and Wildcats met once during the Big East regular season, in the last game played at Philadelphia's Spectrum, and besides home court, the Widlcats also had the luxury of keeping Pitt insider DeJuan Blair on the bench with foul trouble for most of the game, coming away with a 67-57 win. The Wildcats won't likely find the same fortune on Saturday. Blair has been amping up his inside game and will be a rock in the lane.
Pitt has not been impressive in their first three wins, beating East Tennessee State by 10, then Oklahoma State by 8 and finally getting past Xavier by 5, thanks almost exclusively to point guard Levance Fields' heroic 3-pointer and steal and layup in the final minute. That kind of storybook ending is also not probable against the Wildcats and their steady stream of upperclassmen. All of their starters are juniors or seniors.
The Panthers will try to get offense from Sam Young, but the Villanova players have seen Sam's deft ball fakes and he'll not likely have the same measure of accommodation he's had against less-experienced foes. Fields will match up with Scottie Reynolds, who may have an edge over the shorter point guard. The Wildcats role players, Dwayne Anderson, Shane Clark, Reggie Redding and Corey Stokes also appear to be more in their team's flow and better able to contribute than Pitt's Tyrone Biggs, Jermaine Dixon and Gilbert Brown.
Not that it's going to be easy (though it might be), Villanova simply is playing better than just about any other team right now and should move on to the Final Four.
PREDICTION: Villanova 75 Pitt 71
Midwest Regional Finals, Sunday, March 29
Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, IN)
(1) Louisville (31-5) (-7, 138) (2) Michigan St. (29-6) 2:20 pm EDT - In what could be either the biggest mismatch or the biggest upset of this round, The Louisville Cardinals, champions of the Big East, tangle with the Big Ten's regular season champion, Michigan State. The Trojans have been underestimated before, but they ranked in the top 10 nationally almost all season, and did what they had to against Kansas on Friday night. Point guard Kalin Lucas stepped up in the second half and outplayed the jayhawks' Sherrod Collins, and he may have the upper hand again against Louisville's Andre McGee and Edgar Sosa, though that is where Michigan's advantages may end.
Louisville is playing at an emotionally high level, matching their outstanding talent and in Earl Clark, Terrence Williams and Samardo Samuels, probably have the best front court in the nation. If Sosa or McGee can get them the ball, they will likely be too much for the Spartans' Goran Suton, Raymar Morgan and Delvon Roe to handle.
Michigan State is also very young. Only one regular, Travis Walton, is a senior, while only one of Louisville's starters - Samuls, a freshman - is not an upperclassman. Both teams get after it well on defense, but Louisville is less appreciated for it than are the Spartans. Just in terms of size alone, the Cardinals should control the lane and establish a rebounding edge. If they are able to shoot anything close to 50% from the floor against Michigan State, they'll be on their way to Detroit and into the Final Four. Louisville's 103-64 dismantling of a hopelessly overmatched Arizona team in the regional semifinals sent a clear message to the remaining teams that Louisville is serious.
PREDICTION: Louisville 74 Michigan St. 59
South Regional Finals, Sunday, March 29
FedExForum (Memphis, TN)
(1) North Carolina (31-4) (-7, 164) (2) Oklahoma (30-5) 5:05 pm EDT - In one of the most highly anticipated matchups of this or any tournament, Tyler Hansbrough and Blake Griffin will go toe-to-toe in the low post. Hansbrough was last season's college player of the year, and Griffin is the leading choice for the same honor this season. Whoever survives that encounter may find themselves on the way to more glory in the Final Four.
Carolina is a perennial contender at this level, and it's no surprise that they're seven point favorites. Oklahoma doesn't get to this point often, but they have a dynamic offensive team beyond their superstar, Griffin, and they match up very well with the Tar Heels in every aspect, except possibly at point guard, where Ty Lawson is in a league of his own.
The Tar Heels have an edge in terms of margin of victory, a combined 78-51, and nobody's come closer than 14 points (LSU in the second round). That's important, because it demonstrates just how explosive North Carolina is. Oklahoma is a solid team, but if Hansbrough can keep Griffin somewhat in check, it's hard to see how the Sooners can match up for an entire 40 minutes against the Tar Heels. Besides Hansbrough and Lawson, they also have players like Wayne Ellington, Danny Green and Deon Thompson, who can create their own shots. There's also legendary Roy Williams coaching this squad, which gives North Carolina one more huge advantage.
PREDICTION: North Carolina 91 Oklahoma 78
University of Phoenix Stadium (Glendale, AZ)
(1) Connecticut (30-4) (-6, 150) (3) Missouri (31-6) 4:40 pm EDT - Don't believe that Missouri's win over Memphis was a kind of fluke or that Memphis wasn't a high quality team. Nobody wins 27 straight without doing something right, but the Memphis Tigers ran into a bengal of another stripe in Missouri, one which pressed and contested every pass and dribble, throwing Memphis off their game. Even then, Memphis hung in, finally succumbing, 102-91, the highest-scoring game of the tournament, which says plenty about the quality of both teams.
Missouri can click on offense when it gets contributions outside of Leo Lyons and DeMarre Carroll, which it did Thursday as J.T. Tiller whipped and whizzed through the Memphis defense like a gyroscopic genie out of its bottle. Tiller led Missouri with 23 points on 10-16 shooting and his slashing style will be paramount in getting to the tin against UConn's shot-swatting Hasheem Thabeet.
Missouri must push the ball into the lane in order to be successful against Connecticut, hoping to get Thabeet into foul trouble. That seems to be just about the only way to slow down the 7'3" center - limit his playing time to under 25 minutes - and Missouri, with Tiller, Lyons (who will be on Thabeet's hip through most of the proceedings), and Carroll, all of whom love to mix it up underneath, possesses the right kind of offense.
The Tigers should create havoc for the Huskies on defense as well, their pressure style making it difficult for UConn to get into their offense early. The Huskies are basically inept from beyond the arc, so Missouri may find some opportunity to mix up the half-court defense with box-and-one, man to man and maybe even a 2-3 zone look. That will clog the lane, and the Tigers will be a force on the boards against the statuesque Connecticut big men.
UConn's win over Purdue was an ugly thing, despite the statistical edge in most categories. While the Huskies shot a respectable 45% from the field, A.J. Price and Jeff Adrien, the two players who took the most shots, were a combined 8-for-28 and only Craig Austrie was able to hit a three-pointer, canning all three of his attempts. He's not likely to repeat that against Missouri. The Tigers will likely allow Adrien to shoot form anywhere beyond 10 feet, as he has all of the touch of a sledge-hammer on a railway line.
Long story short, Connecticut simply doesn't have enough quality pure shooters to remain competitive for long at this level. Consider their pair of losses to Pittsburgh an early warning sign that they may not be the best fit for a Final Four jumpsuit. Missouri is on a mission, and the Huskies will find their timing thrown completely off and their shooting to be wanting.
PREDICTION: Missouri 85 Connecticut 82
East Regional Finals, Saturday, March 28
TD Banknorth Garden (Boston, MA)
(1) Pittsburgh (31-4) (-2, 142) (3) Villanova (29-7) 7:05 pm EDT - Every game for Villanova seems to provide matchup difficulties and tough-to-call scenarios, but the Wildcats keep winning, increasing their margin of victory with each successive foray into the tournament - 13 over American, 20 over UCLA and 23 over Duke, possibly their most dominant performance of the season. Jay Wright's Wildcats are peaking at the right time and are ready for a real cat fight with the Panthers.
The Panthers and Wildcats met once during the Big East regular season, in the last game played at Philadelphia's Spectrum, and besides home court, the Widlcats also had the luxury of keeping Pitt insider DeJuan Blair on the bench with foul trouble for most of the game, coming away with a 67-57 win. The Wildcats won't likely find the same fortune on Saturday. Blair has been amping up his inside game and will be a rock in the lane.
Pitt has not been impressive in their first three wins, beating East Tennessee State by 10, then Oklahoma State by 8 and finally getting past Xavier by 5, thanks almost exclusively to point guard Levance Fields' heroic 3-pointer and steal and layup in the final minute. That kind of storybook ending is also not probable against the Wildcats and their steady stream of upperclassmen. All of their starters are juniors or seniors.
The Panthers will try to get offense from Sam Young, but the Villanova players have seen Sam's deft ball fakes and he'll not likely have the same measure of accommodation he's had against less-experienced foes. Fields will match up with Scottie Reynolds, who may have an edge over the shorter point guard. The Wildcats role players, Dwayne Anderson, Shane Clark, Reggie Redding and Corey Stokes also appear to be more in their team's flow and better able to contribute than Pitt's Tyrone Biggs, Jermaine Dixon and Gilbert Brown.
Not that it's going to be easy (though it might be), Villanova simply is playing better than just about any other team right now and should move on to the Final Four.
PREDICTION: Villanova 75 Pitt 71
Midwest Regional Finals, Sunday, March 29
Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, IN)
(1) Louisville (31-5) (-7, 138) (2) Michigan St. (29-6) 2:20 pm EDT - In what could be either the biggest mismatch or the biggest upset of this round, The Louisville Cardinals, champions of the Big East, tangle with the Big Ten's regular season champion, Michigan State. The Trojans have been underestimated before, but they ranked in the top 10 nationally almost all season, and did what they had to against Kansas on Friday night. Point guard Kalin Lucas stepped up in the second half and outplayed the jayhawks' Sherrod Collins, and he may have the upper hand again against Louisville's Andre McGee and Edgar Sosa, though that is where Michigan's advantages may end.
Louisville is playing at an emotionally high level, matching their outstanding talent and in Earl Clark, Terrence Williams and Samardo Samuels, probably have the best front court in the nation. If Sosa or McGee can get them the ball, they will likely be too much for the Spartans' Goran Suton, Raymar Morgan and Delvon Roe to handle.
Michigan State is also very young. Only one regular, Travis Walton, is a senior, while only one of Louisville's starters - Samuls, a freshman - is not an upperclassman. Both teams get after it well on defense, but Louisville is less appreciated for it than are the Spartans. Just in terms of size alone, the Cardinals should control the lane and establish a rebounding edge. If they are able to shoot anything close to 50% from the floor against Michigan State, they'll be on their way to Detroit and into the Final Four. Louisville's 103-64 dismantling of a hopelessly overmatched Arizona team in the regional semifinals sent a clear message to the remaining teams that Louisville is serious.
PREDICTION: Louisville 74 Michigan St. 59
South Regional Finals, Sunday, March 29
FedExForum (Memphis, TN)
(1) North Carolina (31-4) (-7, 164) (2) Oklahoma (30-5) 5:05 pm EDT - In one of the most highly anticipated matchups of this or any tournament, Tyler Hansbrough and Blake Griffin will go toe-to-toe in the low post. Hansbrough was last season's college player of the year, and Griffin is the leading choice for the same honor this season. Whoever survives that encounter may find themselves on the way to more glory in the Final Four.
Carolina is a perennial contender at this level, and it's no surprise that they're seven point favorites. Oklahoma doesn't get to this point often, but they have a dynamic offensive team beyond their superstar, Griffin, and they match up very well with the Tar Heels in every aspect, except possibly at point guard, where Ty Lawson is in a league of his own.
The Tar Heels have an edge in terms of margin of victory, a combined 78-51, and nobody's come closer than 14 points (LSU in the second round). That's important, because it demonstrates just how explosive North Carolina is. Oklahoma is a solid team, but if Hansbrough can keep Griffin somewhat in check, it's hard to see how the Sooners can match up for an entire 40 minutes against the Tar Heels. Besides Hansbrough and Lawson, they also have players like Wayne Ellington, Danny Green and Deon Thompson, who can create their own shots. There's also legendary Roy Williams coaching this squad, which gives North Carolina one more huge advantage.
PREDICTION: North Carolina 91 Oklahoma 78
Friday, March 27, 2009
South, Midwest Regional Semis: Friday Games
Midwest Region
Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, IN)
(1) Louisville 103, (12) Arizona 64 - The Cardinals took control early and led 49-28 by the half and the contest was essentially over. Louisville completely dominated the less-experienced Wildcats throughout and cruised to the round of 8. Their lead widened in the second half. Look out Final Four, Rick Pitino's Louisville Cardinals are more than ready. Louisville's final tally tied Connecticut for the highest of the tournament. Twelve different players scored for the Cardinals, led by Earl Clark's 19.
(2) Michigan St. 67, (3) Kansas 62 - The Jayhawks took a 36-29 lead into the half after leading by as many as 13 earlier on the strength of 22 combined from Cole Aldrich ad Sherron Collins.
Michigan State rallied in the second half, with the game eventually taken over by Kalin Lucas who hit a clutch three and numerous free throws down the stretch.
Lucas and the Spartan faithful will have their hands full with Louisville on Sunday.
South Region
FedExForum (Memphis, TN)
(2) Oklahoma 84, (3) Syracuse 71 - The Orangemen could not buy a bucket from outside, missing all 10 of their 3-point attempts in the first half. The Sooners took advantage with 16 first half points from Blake Griffin and 14 on 3 3-pointers by Tony Crocker for a 39-26 lead.
With an injured Jonny Flynn on the floor for the Orangemen in the second half, the Sooners quickly upped the lead to 22 points and were never seriously challenged. Crocker finished with a career-high 28 points, hitting 6 of 11 from three-point range, Blake Griffin had 30 points and 12 boards.
(1) North Carolina 98, (4) Gonzaga 77 - Two of the highest scoring teams in the nation played at a breakneck pace in the first half, but Carolina made fewer miscues and was the swifter and more adroit, taking a 53-42 lead into intermission. The Tar Heels expanded their lead and cruised to the Elite Eight.
North Carolina will play Oklahoma in the regional final. That will be one hot game. Get ready.
Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, IN)
(1) Louisville 103, (12) Arizona 64 - The Cardinals took control early and led 49-28 by the half and the contest was essentially over. Louisville completely dominated the less-experienced Wildcats throughout and cruised to the round of 8. Their lead widened in the second half. Look out Final Four, Rick Pitino's Louisville Cardinals are more than ready. Louisville's final tally tied Connecticut for the highest of the tournament. Twelve different players scored for the Cardinals, led by Earl Clark's 19.
(2) Michigan St. 67, (3) Kansas 62 - The Jayhawks took a 36-29 lead into the half after leading by as many as 13 earlier on the strength of 22 combined from Cole Aldrich ad Sherron Collins.
Michigan State rallied in the second half, with the game eventually taken over by Kalin Lucas who hit a clutch three and numerous free throws down the stretch.
Lucas and the Spartan faithful will have their hands full with Louisville on Sunday.
South Region
FedExForum (Memphis, TN)
(2) Oklahoma 84, (3) Syracuse 71 - The Orangemen could not buy a bucket from outside, missing all 10 of their 3-point attempts in the first half. The Sooners took advantage with 16 first half points from Blake Griffin and 14 on 3 3-pointers by Tony Crocker for a 39-26 lead.
With an injured Jonny Flynn on the floor for the Orangemen in the second half, the Sooners quickly upped the lead to 22 points and were never seriously challenged. Crocker finished with a career-high 28 points, hitting 6 of 11 from three-point range, Blake Griffin had 30 points and 12 boards.
(1) North Carolina 98, (4) Gonzaga 77 - Two of the highest scoring teams in the nation played at a breakneck pace in the first half, but Carolina made fewer miscues and was the swifter and more adroit, taking a 53-42 lead into intermission. The Tar Heels expanded their lead and cruised to the Elite Eight.
North Carolina will play Oklahoma in the regional final. That will be one hot game. Get ready.
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