The SEC is the Place to Be

Tennessee asserted themselves at home and ended upstart Mississippi's 13-game win streak with the Rebels' first loss of the season while surprising Vanderbilt improved to 16-0 with an 80-73 win over South Carolina.

The Commodores, ranked #13 nationally, needed a huge game from freshman A.J. Ogilvy, who scored 25 points, more than picking up the slack from SEC scoring leader Shan Foster, who hit only 4-11 from the field and tallied 13 points. The Gamecocks kept the game close until Vandy pulled away in the final four minutes. Devan Downey led South Carolina with 22 points.

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In Tennessee's 85-83 win, it was tighter down the stretch. The visiting Rebels led 83-79 with under two minutes remaining, but the Vols scored the final six points of the game, the last four on buckets by Tyler Smith, who finished with a team-high 21 points, the same number scored by JaJuan Smith, who had a hot first half with 16 points, including 4-6 shooting from 3-point range.

Mississippi's Chris Warren scored 24 to pace all scorers. With the win, the Vols and Rebels share identical 13-1 records as conference play in the SEC got underway. The two teams will not meet again during the regular season.

Both divisions look to be hotly contested. In the East, the main challenge for the Vols will come from Vanderbilt and Georgia. Florida, which won the division, conference and national championship last year, already has a conference win over Alabama, though they are nowhere near the same team that took the floor last season, having lost all five starters to the NBA.

In the West, Mississippi will have to contend with Mississippi St., Arkansas and Auburn, all of which were close to the division lead last season.

Hibbert's Double-Double Leads Hoyas; Big East on Fire

Georgetown 76 DePaul 60 - Roy Hibbert scored 17 points and wiped the boards for 11 rebounds to lead the #7 Georgetown Hoyas to a decisive victory at DePaul. The victory was the second straight Big East road win for Georgetown, which pounded Rutgers, 58-46 on Saturday.

Georgetown joins Notre Dame and Syracuse atop the Big East standings at 2-0, followed by Connecticut and Marquette at 2-1 and a gaggle of six teams at 1-1. Pre-season favorite Pittsburgh is 0-1, after losing at Villanova, 64-63, on Sunday. The Panthers can begin to make amends with games against 1-1 South Florida and 0-2 Seton Hall this week, prior to hosting the Hoyas on the 14th.

For Hibbert, it was business as usual in the post, hitting on 7 of 9 shots from the field as Georgetown improved to 12-1 overall. It was Hibbert's 2nd double-double of the season.

Four other Top 25 teams in action on Tuesday all won.

#3 Kansas 90 Loyola (MD) 60 - 12 different Jayhawks tallied as Kansas improved to 15-0.

#15 Marquette 61 Seton Hall 56 - Marquette survived a poor shooting night, hitting less than 33% from the field and committing 15 turnovers, to hold on for a home win over Seton Hall, 0-2 in the Big East.

#10 Indiana 78 Michigan 64 - Freshman sensation Eric Gordon led all scorers with 23 points, but D.J. White's performance was one for the record books, as the 6'9" senior forward scored 21 points and hauled down 23 rebounds, 8 of them on the offensive boards. White was the first Hoosier to record a 20-20 performance in over a decade (Alan Henderson, 1995). The Hoosiers are 13-1 and are tied with Wisconsin, Penn St., Michigan St. and Ohio St. at 2-0 in the conference.

#6 Michigan St. 78 Purdue 76 - The Boilermakers nearly pulled off a huge upset, rallying from a 16-point first half deficit to take a lead late in the game, but the Spartans held court at home to improve to 14-1, their 11th straight win.

Izzo's Spartans the Team to Beat in Big 10

There's little doubt that Michigan State coach Tommy Izzo is one of the best coaches in the NCAA, as a recruiter, game coach and getting players ready through rigorous practices.

This season, Izzo seems to have put together an elite, Top 10 team, making Michigan State the one to beat in the rugged Big 10 conference.

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Entering Saturday night's conference opener against a solid Minnesota team, the Spartans were 12-1 and ranked 6th nationally. By the time the game was over, Michigan had added another win, buttressing their spot near the top of the national heap with an All-American performance from sophomore forward Raymar Morgan.

The 6'8" Morgan wore out the visiting Golden Gophers on both ends of the floor, scoring 31 points on 11-17 shooting while snatching 10 rebounds in Michigan State's 65-59 win. The points were a career high for Morgan, who ranks third in Big 10 scoring behind Indiana's Eric Gordon (23.5) and Penn State's Geary Claxton (18.6) at 18.4 per game. He's also tied for 7th in the conference 7.3 rebounds per outing and has registered three double-doubles this season.

Teamed with the playmaking, scoring and leadership abilities of senior Drew Neitzel and the inside presence of 6'10" junior Goran Suton, Izzo is looking forward to a Big 10 title and possible Final Four appearance later this year.

Michigan State's only setback this season was a tough 68-63 loss, November 20 at UCLA. Since then, the Spartans have knocked off three ranked opponents - BYU, Texas and NC State.

Looking ahead, key games include a Feb. 16 contest at Indiana, then two consecutive tough outings, Feb. 28 at Wisconsin and March 2, at home with the Hoosiers.

As Morgan continues to impress and improve and Izzo keeps pushing the fundamentals to his troops, the Spartans look to be the kind of team nobody will want to play come tourney time.

Kansas Forwards Dismantle Boston College

Darnell Jackson had 25 points and Darrell Arthur scored 22, as the Kansas Jayhawks' starting forwards completely overwhelmed Boston College, 85-60, in one of Saturday's premier college hoops events. The scoring totals were season-highs for both players.

Jackson was 9-16 from the field and popped in 7 of 8 free throws, while Arthur was devastatingly accurate, hitting on 10 of 13 shots with a pair of free throws. Kansas shot 52% for the game and outrebounded the Eagles 32-20.

The two power forwards are primarily responsible for Kansas' perfect 14-0 record this season.

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Sophomore Arthur leads the team in scoring at 13.1 points per outing, with Jackson, a senior, a close third, hitting for an average of 11.5 per game. Guard Mario Chalmers is second with 12.3. All five Kansas starters are averaging in double digits.

The two also do an exceptional job wiping the glass, combining for 13 rebounds per game. On Saturday, the pair was a force on both ends, as Jackson hauled down 9 boards and Arthur pulled in 7.

While Jackson will surely test the NBA draft following his final season at Kansas, Arthur may forego the remainder of his college career to go pro as well. In addition to leading the Jayhawks in scoring, he's second on the team in both rebounds and blocks and has scored in double digits in 13 of 14 games this season.

The inside presence of these two is going to make the Big 12 schedule - which begins next week - a nightmare for conference opponents.

The Jayhawks open on the road at Nebraska on January 12. Other key dates for Kansas are a pair of away games: at Texas, February 11 and Texas A&M, March 8, the final game of the regular season.

Watch out for Kansas come tourney time. Barring major injuries, they look like a lock for a #1 seed.

Spartans Travel Well, Knock Off BYU

Michigan State 68 BYU 61

In one of the most widely-anticipated matchups of the early college hoops season, the #9 Michigan State Spartans traveled out to Provo, Utah, to take on the 20th-ranked Brigham Young Cougars.

BYU stormed out to a 35-25 edge at the half, but Michigan State rallied on a 14-3 run to open the second half for a brief 39-38 lead. The teams exchanged baskets and leads thereafter, while BYU's Junior swingman Lee Cummard, who averages 14.8 points per game, was saddled with 4 fouls and sat out most of the second half.

Michigan State's Drew Neitzel scored seven straight points late, including a 3-pointer with 2:27 remaining to give the Spartans a 82-56 lead which proved to be insurmountable for the Cougars.

Fouls and foul-shooting played a critical role down the stretch, as the Spartans piled up personals, putting BYU in the bonus with 7 minutes left and into the double bonus at the 3:42 mark, while the Cougars committed only 4 fouls through the first 19 minutes of the second half but were forced to foul the Spartans repeatedly down the stretch as their shots would not fall and Michigan kept their lead at the foul line, as Travis Walton hit all six of his attempts from the stripe in the final minute.

Neitzel finished with 15 points as did teammate Raymar Morgan. BYU's Trent Plaisted led all scorers with 17.

The Spartans are 8-1, their only loss a thin 68-63 defeat at UCLA. BYU dropped to 7-2.

Indiana 70 Kentucky 51

Indiana positively pounded the Kentucky Wildcats in the annual border war in Bloomington, as D. J. White dropped in 16 points and hauled down 13 rebounds for his 5th straight double-double. The Hoosiers completely dominated the scoring and the boards, even without starting guard Eric Gordon, who was averaging 24.2 points per outing this season. Freshman Jordan Crawford led the Hoosiers and all scorers with 20 points.

Indiana improved to 8-1 and looks like one of the favorites in the Big 10. Kentucky dropped to 4-3, and is has not shot the ball well in most of their outings this season. They hit only 19 of 49 (39%) against Indiana, and have only cracked the 50% plateau twice, in blowout wins over pushovers Liberty and Texas Southern.

Coach Billy Gillispie will find the going tough once Kentucky enters SEC play in mid-January.

No Fluke: Duke Routs Wolverines

Duke 95 Michigan 67

I may have to take back some of what I said about Duke after watching them roll over Michigan on Saturday. While they are not big up front, they do have some depth and their wingmen, notably Gerald Henderson, Taylor King and DeMarcus Nelson, are extremely versatile and play within themselves. Most impressive, however, was freshman Nolan Smith, who scored a career-high 17 points on 7-9 shooting.

Duke opened the game shooting 0-7, but Taylor King hit a sweeping hook shot, then Paulus hit a long trey, followed by a three from King on the wing. Suddenly, the Blue Devils were up 8-5. Duke could not maintain much of a lead early in the first half, as the 3-5 Wolverines continued to push the ball and force Duke into mostly outside shooting. But the Wolverines shot only 26% for the half and Duke nearly ran them out of the gym, going on a 23-9 run to expand an 18-14 lead to 41-23 at intermission. Duke shot only 37% and hit on only 6 of 17 three-point tries in the opening stanza.

The second half saw a lot of substitution by both coaches, and Duke's lead was never challenged. Michigan seemed content to just hang in and work on their offense, while the Blue Devils hammered the ball inside.

Michigan ended up shooting 38% for the game, to the Blue Devils' 49%. Duke hit 11 of 26 3-pointers, better than their average of 22 threes per game and a 41% clip.

One to watch for Michigan is freshman Manny Harris, who was held to just 8 points, well below his 16.6 per game average. He's a slick guard with good ball-handling skills. Despite the loss, the Wolverines will win more than a fair share of their Big 10 games once they develop a little more offensively.

In other early Saturday action, the Fighting Illini took the visiting Arizona Wildcats into overtime, dropping a 78-72 decision to the 6-2 Wildcats. Arizona misses head coach Lute Olson, who is on an extended leave through the end of the season as he has filed for divorce, seeking to end his second marriage. Freshman sensation Jerryd Bayless dropped in 20 for Arizona, right on his average for the season.

Louisville, playing without Juan Palacios, had their hands full with the Dayton Flyers, dropping a 70-65 decision, as the Cardinals had absolutely no answer for senior guard Brian Roberts, who poured in 28 points on 10-17 shooting. The win makes Dayton 7-1, while Louisville falls to 5-2. Both Louisville losses have come at home, the first a 78-76 defeat to BYU. The Cardinals, currently #14, may fall out of the Top 25 next week, while Dayton probably won't get any consideration, but looks like a contender in the rugged Atlantic 10, along with Xavier, Duquesne and Rhode Island.

Duke is a Fluke

Every year about this time, we see the Duke Blue Devils ranked high in the polls. It's just one of those NCAA customs we're so used to. As long as Coach K is at the front of the bench, the Blue Devils are supposed to put on the floor one of the best teams in college basketball.

Currently, the 8-0 Blue Devils are ranked #6 in the AP Poll and #7 in the USA Today/ESPN poll. Chances are good that this is as high as they'll get because this 2007-08 version is not a powerhouse, nor will they challenge for supremacy in the ACC. They're just not that good.

OK, I hear the Cameron Crazies now. "We just beat Wisconsin by 24 points and we beat Marquette in the Maui Invitational."

Right. And you slipped by Davidson by 6 this past Saturday.

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The remainder of the month is pretty cushy, with only three games total and two that will have much meaning. Michigan comes to Cameron this Saturday and a December 20 game at Pittsburgh are the big ones. The Devils could win both of those, or lose both. It won't matter. They'll still be ranked in the Top 10. Everybody likes Duke, or, they're being kind to them, at least.

The real action begins on January 13, when the ACC schedule begins. Last year, Duke didn't do well, and while the conference doesn't look that strong, there are some teams that are loaded. Virginia, Maryland, Boston College and North Carolina will each pose a problem to Duke.

Why Duke is not that good? First they're thin, having just lost Junior guard Marty Pocious to season-ending surgery. A swingman, Pocius could play either guard or forward, but won't be missed too badly, as he was averaging only 8 minutes per game. The bench is going to be needed, however, and two starters, Greg Paulus and Lance Thomas, have taken early exits in a number of games. Paulus, the playmaker, is averaging just 3.8 assists per game, while Thomas is only hitting the boards for 2.8 rebounds per contest.

Up front, the Blue Devils are not very big nor experienced. Kyle Singler, who leads the team in scoring and rebounding, is, like Thomas, 6-8. They can bring in sophomore 7-1 Brian Zoubek for added height, but he's not very mobile and has seen limited action.

The Blue Devils also rely on the three-pointer quite heavily. Jon Scheyer, Taylor King and Paulus are all shooting over 47% from beyond the arc, but they're heaving up more than 20 per game. Also, the free-throws aren't falling as easily as they could be. Against Marquette the Blue Devils shot 70%. In the win over Davidson, it was 60%.

Duke is a good team, but not one to hang one's March destiny upon. Enjoy the Top Ten ranking for now, because in about 6 weeks, it will be nothing but a fond memory.

Creampuff Upsets

This is a difficult time of year for hard-core college hoops fans. Many of the games being played are lopsided affairs between ranked teams and small colleges, so there really isn't much in the way of compelling basketball.

However, there have been a number of notable upsets over the past week that need to be highlighted.

Last Saturday, USC, ranked #9 by Rivals.com and #7 by me, got walloped by little Mercer College, 96-81, marking the first serious casualty in the top 25. USC needs to play a little defense apparently. Mercer shot 59% from the field and also hit 13-16 free throws. By contrast, the Trojans shot only 40% from the floor and 56% from the charity line. Obviously, more time in the gym working on fundamentals is ahead for these guys.

Another team with free throw problems is Texas Tech, my #25 preseason pick. The Red Raiders fell on Wednesday night at Sam Houston State, 56-54, missing four key foul shots down the stretch and hitting just 15-28 freebies for the game. They also were outrebounded, 44-32. Coach Bobby Knight will likely be running block out drills and extra free throw sessions for weeks.

On Friday, Memphis knocked off UConn, 81-70 in the Coaches Vs. Cancer Classic. I didn't rank UConn, but Rivals.com had them at #21 preseason. I still think the Huskies are toast this season and this result is just the beginning of what will be a 12-15 loss season for them.

Also on Friday, one of my sleepers, Providence, topped Arkansas. 67-51 (I had Arkansas ranked #14 and the Friars, #22. Rivals.com didn't rank either of them). Providence had beaten Temple 66-64 in Thursday's opening round of the ESPNU Puerto Rico Tip-Off, before topping the Razorbacks. Arkansas committed 32 turnovers in the game, while the Friars accounted for 15 steals. What really stands out is that neither team shot the ball very well. Arkansas actually hit 43% from the field to Providence's 38%. Sonny Weems, one of the Razorback stars, had only 3 points in 36 minutes. I don't know why the Friars weren't ranked preseason, but they've served notice that they should challenge some of the powerhouses in the Big East. I still think Arkansas is a pretty good team and they'll recover from this.

The Friars (2-0) will face Miami (3-0) in the championship game, Sunday night.

Pre-season College Basketball Rankings

I should have put these up a few days ago before Kentucky, Michigan State and Ohio State got whacked by lesser teams. I've composed my own Pre-season Top 25 and present them here, followed by those of widely-circulated and multi-million doall baby of Yahoo, Rivals.com.

My Rank Team
1 North Carolina
2 Tennessee
3 Memphis
4 Kansas
5 UCLA
6 Georgetown
7 USC
8 Louisville
9 Virginia
10 Indiana
11 Marquette
12 Kansas St.
13 Michigan St.
14 Arkansas
15 Clemson
16 Washington St.
17 Georgia
18 Texas A&M
19 Mississippi
20 Florida St.
21 Duke
22 Providence
23 Auburn
24 Southern Illinois
25 Texas Tech

Rivals.com Rank Team
1 North Carolina
2 Memphis
3 UCLA
4 Kansas
5 Louisville
6 Tennessee
7 Indiana
8 Michigan St.
9 USC
10 Georgetown
11 Kansas St.
12 Arizona
13 Stanford
14 Washington St.
15 Marquette
16 Duke
17 Mississippi St.
18 NC State
19 Syracuse
20 Texas
21 Connecticut
22 Oregon
23 Pitttsburgh
24 Alabama
25 Southern Illinois

We'll make comparisons as the season progresses. Note that neither I nor Rivals.com had Ohio St. or Kentucky in the Top 25. So far, we both look pretty smart.

Durant First Freshman to Claim Wooden Award

As the Florida Gator Nation continued the celebration of their 2nd consecutive national championship, the L.A. Athletic Club hosted the selection of the winner of the annual John R. Wooden award on Saturday, April 7.

The award is given annually - after the conclusion of the NCAA men's basketball season - to the top player in college basketball.

For the first time in the history of the award, the honor went to a freshman: Kevin Durant of the Texas Longhorns. Durant finished #5 in the nation in scoring at 25.1 points, leading Texas to a 25-10 season. He also averaged 11.4 rebounds per game, led the Longhorns in both steals and blocks (1.9/game each) and recorded an astounding 20 double-doubles. At one point, Durant ran off a string of 6 straight double-doubles, averaging 29.7 points and 14.3 rebounds during the stretch.

Durant was a prolific scorer, hitting 83 3-pointers and scoring 30 or more points on 11 occasions, including his career-high of 37, 4 different times.

The Longhorns were bounced from the NCAA tournament in the second round by USC, but Durant's presence was felt in both tourney games. In the opener against New Mexico St., Durant scored 27 points and hauled down 8 rebounds. He had 30 points and 8 boards in Texas' 87-68 loss to Southern Cal.

After receiving the award, Durant declined to comment on whether he would turn pro or return for another season at Texas, saying he was just going to enjoy the moment. The 6'9", 225 lb. phenom is widely assumed to be heading to the NBA after an incredible season, likely to be the #1 or #2 pick in a draft loaded with talented under-and-upperclassmen.

The selection committee had previously named 10 players as finalists for the award on two teams. The 1st Team:

• Arron Afflalo (UCLA)


• Aaron Brooks (Oregon)


• Kevin Durant (Texas)


• Nick Fazekas (Nevada)


• Tyler Hansbrough (North Carolina)

2nd Team:

• Acie Law (Texas A&M)


• Joakim Noah (Florida)


• Greg Oden (Ohio State)


• Brandon Rush (Kansas)


• Alando Tucker (Wisconsin)

Purdue's Gene Keady was the recipient of the Legends of Coaching award for the 2006-2007 season.

Candace Parker, a 6'4" forward from the Tennessee Lady Vols, won the award for the 2006-2007 top women's player.

The event was aired live on CBS.

Florida Gators Repeat: One for the Ages

Florida completes rare repeat; Gator Nation jubilant

The Florida Gators accomplished what no other NCAA Championship team had ever done: winning back-to-back championships with the same starting five. With their 84-75 win over Ohio State on Monday night, the Gators became the first repeat basketball champions since the Duke Blue Devils accomplished the feat in 1991-92.

The starters from Florida, most notably Joakim Noah, were outspoken about their desire to return to school and repeat after winning the title last season, and they proved true to their word.
The Gators stopped Ohio State's 22-game win streak in its tracks with timely outside shooting from Cory Brewer (3-8 on 3-pointers and named Most Oustanding Player of the Final Four), Lee Humphrey (4-7 3s) or Taurean Green (3-3).

The long-range scoring of the Gators was the story as Florida hit 10-18 (56%) from beyond the arc. Inside, Ohio State's Greg Oden had his career game, hitting 10 of 15 shots for 25 points while collecting 12 rebounds. Oden battled four Gators inside all night and wracked up a total of 15 fouls on his opposition.

But he alone could not overcome the tremendous team effort by Florida. Of the starters, only Noah failed to score in double figures. Al Horford had 18; Green, 16; Humphrey 14 and Green, 13. Noah, who spent much of the second half on the bench due to foul problems, finished with 8 points.

The Gators have now captured the last three major college championships. In between the basketball titles, the football team won a national championship, beating the Buckeyes' football counterparts earlier this year.

It has been an amazing 2 years in Gainesville, but all indications are that the good times may be coming to an end. All of the Florida starters will leave for the NBA and coach Billy Donovan has been rumored to be headed to another coaching post, either at Kentucky or in the pros.

That leaves it to Urban Meyer and the football team to carry on. The basketball Gators of 2005-2007 are going into the history books. In the two years the starters have been together, they've gone 68-11 (33-6 in 2005-06, 35-5 in 06-07), won both SEC tournaments and national championships, ending this season with a 9-game win streak. We may have just seen one of the great teams of all time.

You certainly won't get any arguments in the Sunshine State.

Deja Vu: Florida vs. Ohio State National Championship

For Joakim Noah and his fellow Florida Gators, the setting is familiar. They're playing for the national championship for the second year in a row, this time on a court that they might as well call home. The Gators won the SEC tournament at the Georgia Dome and easily handled UCLA (again) in their half of the national semi-finals.

Against UCLA, the Gators displayed the kind of aggressive play that have put them at the pinnacle of their sport, plus, having the Bruins' Arron Afflalo sidelined with two early fouls didn't hurt. Afflalo, UCLA's leading scorer and best defender, picked up his second foul less than three minutes into the game. As the Gators threatened to blow the game open, coach Howland put his star back in only to see him pick up foul #3.

Meanwhile, Corey Brewer was lighting up the scoreboard with three 3-pointers that put the Gators ahead by 6 points at the half. From there, Lee Humphrey and Chris Richard provided most of the offense as the Florida lead grew to double digits and the outcome became predictable. Humphrey hit 3 3-pointers in the second half and Richard scored repeatedly on dunks and tip-ins, finishing with 16 points. Brewer led all scorers with 19, while Al Horford swept the boards, accounting for a tournament-high 17 rebounds.

The final score of 76-66 was not indicative of how lopsided Florida's win really was. Afflalo did get back into the game in the second half and finished with 17 points, but he only hit 5-14 shots and much of his scoring was late in the game.

Earlier in the day, the Ohio State Buckeyes extended their winning streak to 22 games with a 67-60 win over Georgetown. The anticipated showdown between Greg Oden and Roy Hibbert failed to materialize as both players got into early foul trouble. The game lacked any real flow or consistency as the Buckeyes maintained a single-digit advantage through much of the contest and Georgetown could never sustain their offense for long.

Georgetown actually outshot the Buckeyes, 49-44%, but both teams were icy from outside, going a combined 11-35 from beyond the arc. With less than 3 minutes remaining, the Buckeyes opened up a 9-point lead that the Hoyas could never overcome and the game devolved into a foul-shooting contest late.

The national championship game tonight between the Gators and Buckeyes is a rematch of the programs which competed in the Fiesta Bowl in January for football's national title. In that game, the Buckeyes were heavy favorites, but the Gators shocked them with a one-sided win.

It's doubtful that the basketball Buckeyes will be able to turn the same trick. Florida is a 4 1/2 point favorite, and that's probably not even close to what the final score will be. While the Ohio State faithful are hoping for the first national title in over 40 years, the Gators are on the verge of being the first team to repeat as champions since Duke did it in 1992.

The matchups really favor the Gators here, despite not having a single player the stature of Oden. The problem for the Ohio State center is that the Gators have four players they can send at him - Noah, Horford, Chris Richard and, if need be, Marreese Speights, another 6'10" reserve. Oden doesn't have the stamina to stay in the game the full 40 minutes anyway, and there's a good chance he'll be in early foul trouble again.

On the perimeter, the Gators and Buckeyes match up pretty well, though nobody in the country has an answer for Corey Brewer, who has been the real x-factor in Florida's two-season run. Nobody is able to match up effectively with his long, lean 6'9" frame. Brewer is the team's best defender and can slash to the hoop or shoot from outside. Ohio State will have trouble - as has every other team - containing him.

These two met earlier in the season and the result was an ugly, 86-60 rout by the Gators. Sure, the Gators were at home and Greg Oden was playing in just his fifth game after an injury. But Oden is still a freshman, after all, and the Gators are still defending national champions.

An upset by Ohio State seems unlikely. Tomorrow morning, we're likely to be singing the praises of the Gator nation.

NCAA Semi-Finals Game Picks

6:07 pm EDT Georgetown (-1) vs. Ohio State - As has been noted almost everywhere, the looming confrontation between the big men in the middle, Ohio State's Greg Oden and Georgetown's Roy Hibbert, is supposed to be the main focus of this game.

While what the 7-footers accomplish in the lane will certainly have an impact on the game, there are going to be 8 other players on the floor at all times and none of them are more important than Georgetown's Jeff Green and the Buckeyes' Mike Conley Jr.

Conley has been an exemplar of consistency and cool throughout the tournament. Even as a freshman, he's displayed the kind of floor leadership that has propelled Ohio State to the pinnacle of college basketball. Often overlooked because of the plaudits going to Oden or the 3-point exploits of Jamar Butler or Ron Lewis, when there's a big play to be made it's Conley who's the trigger man. Whenever there's a critical play, Conley's usually in the middle of it.

While there's no way to accurately measure things like off-the-ball movement, intensity and hoops instincts, Conley gets high marks on all of those. His penetration and distribution of the ball will be key to Ohio State's success.

For the Hoyas, beyond Hibbert, they have the incomparable Jeff Green, the Big East Player of the Year. Green exploded in last year's post-season and has been vital to the Hoyas' success this season. He's already hit two big shots in tournaments this year - game winners against Notre Dame in the Big East tourney and last weekend's tough banker for the win over Vanderbilt.

Green's game is complete. He's got the size to compete in the lane and a shooting touch that is deadly from 3-point range. Defenders have a difficult choice when guarding him. Get in his face and he's likely to blow by you for an easy layup or dunk. Lay off him and he'll knock down long and mid-range jumpers.

Defensively, Green is a ferocious rebounder with incredible leaping ability. He's the most athletic player on the floor most nights and his all-around play will lead Georgetown to a win here.

One other player to keep a close eye on is Georgetown's Jonathan Wallace. The purest shooter in the game, if he gets hot, the Hoyas could romp.

Bottom Line: Hibbert gets a slight edge over Oden, Green has 20 or more, Ohio State goes cold from beyond the arc and Georgetown wins 82-71.


8:47 pm EDT Florida (-3) vs. UCLA - Call this one "The Rematch." Most of the characters from last year's championship game are back in similar roles.

The Florida Gators, while they haven't shown much of the emotion that got them the rings last season, are nevertheless on a mission, this time to prove that they are once again, the top team in the land. They're just doing it with a little more control and confidence this time around.

It's difficult to say which players will be key for the Gators, but since Arron Afflalo is the key to UCLA, Corey Brewer, who will likely be guarding him, is the main focus for Florida. Brewer is long and lean and difficult to defend himself, which creates matchup problems for the Bruins.

Afflalo, however, is regarded as the Bruins' best defender and top scorer and should be able to front Brewer effectively. When he has the ball, he's going to have to create offense on his own, and that's going to prove difficult. In last year's finals, Afflalo was invisible for large parts of the game, mostly due to Brewer's defense.

This time around, however, it's a little different. Ben Howland has a different offense, with explosive Darren Collison at point instead of the more careful, sometimes plodding, Jordan Farmar. If Collison is handling the ball, Afflalo and Josh Shipp should be able to work off screens for open looks and keep UCLA from going though extended scoring droughts.

Beyond the matchups, the real impact here is going to be UCLA's team defense. They're better than they were a year ago, and they know what's coming. While they won't exactly frustrate the Gators, the Bruins will be able to create enough havoc and turnovers to keep the game close and maybe put together some scoring runs of their own.

Bottom Line: UCLA turns up the defense, Joakim Noah spends much of the 2nd half on the bench and Collison emerges as star of the game in a 74-69 Bruins win.

Saturday Semi-Finals: Georgetown vs. Ohio State

6:07 pm EDT (#2 East) Georgetown (30-6) vs. (#1 South) Ohio St. (34-3) - This is the game many have been anticipating all season. The matchup between the two best big men in the country, Ohio State's Greg Oden and Georgetown's Roy Hibbert.

Both 7-footers dominate the middle, can block shots, rebound well, distribute the rock and are serious scoring threats. Putting them on the same floor at the same time recalls famous bouts between Bill Russell and Wilt Chamberlain or Lew Alcindor and Elvin Hayes. The confrontation, on the biggest stage in college basketball, has the potential to be a classic.

Like many of these confrontations often turn out, this one may end up somewhat of a stalemate. Both centers are power players and thus, each will have their moments. Hibbert and Oden are so evenly matched that the only possible derailment of this encounter would be the refs calling the game too close. The last thing basketball fans want to see is one or the other cooling out on the bench because of foul trouble, but, as both players have shown, they are not very careful about picking up nickel-dimers (as Bill Raftery might say) and hurting their team's chances.

If there's any advantage at all, it would be Hibbert's maturity. As a junior, he's got a couple of years playing time over Oden, which means his footwork and game understanding is likely to be a little more advanced than that of the Ohio State star.

Statistically, Hibbert has the edge on paper, though not by much. His shooting percentage is 67%, as compared to Oden's 62%. Both are capable free throw shooters; Hibbert hits at 70%, Oden, 64%. Defensively, Oden has the edge with 9.5 rebounds and 3.3 blocks per game, compared to Hibbert at 6.9 and 2.5. Hibbert averages 12.7 points per game, Oden, 15.4. Obviously, there's little separating the two.

That gets us to the rest of the starters, the bench and the coaches. The other star for Georgetown is Big East Player of the Year, Jeff Green, who can score from anywhere on the court, but it most dangerous on slashing moves to the hoop. His Buckeye counterpart would be Ron Lewis, an all-around performer who's leading Ohio State (and all remaining players) in scoring at 21.8 ppg. He's a proven commodity as a clutch player, having hit the game-tying 3-pointer against Xavier. When the Buckeyes stared elimination in the eye, Lewis didn't blink.

The Buckeyes may be known more for their 3-point shooting than the Hoyas, as, in addition to Lewis, Jamar Butler can also throw down from well beyond the arc and Mike Conley Jr. hasn't shown any shyness in hoisting from 3-point land. The Hoyas, however, have two players with high percentages from behind the line: Patrick Ewing Jr. and Jonathan Wallace, who hit at 46% and 49%, respectively.

Wallace is especially dangerous whenever he has an open look. A bona fide pure shooter, Wallace is the X-factor for Georgetown. If he gets hot, forget the Oden-Hibbert games and everything else; Ohio State will have to trade baskets with the Hoyas - no easy feat.

Jessie Sapp and DaJuan Summers of the Hoyas are both slashers, not necessarily outside threats similar to Ohio State's Conley Jr. The Buckeyes' Ivan Harris is more a jump shooter than a driver and he'll opt for 3's rather than drive.

Both teams can go 9 deep, with the key subs being Daequan Cook and David Lighty for Ohio State. Cook is the Buckeye's most consistent 3-point shooter at 42% efficiency, while Lighty is a good ball-handler, slasher and rebounder with excellent instincts. The Hoyas will have Jeremiah Rivers off the bench early on. He's an excellent point guard who can control the offense. Ewing Jr. will also see plenty of floor time when the Hoyas want to go big.

Emotionally, the Hoyas seem to have an advantage. They were a #2 seed, Ohio State a #1, so they may take on the relished role of underdog, thinking they have something to prove, while the Buckeyes, who came into the tournament ranked #1 in the nation, have bullseyes on their backs.

Both coaches, Georgetown's John Thompson Jr. and Ohio State's Thad Motta have serious top-notch credentials and are masters of discipline and game-situation understanding. Both will be into the game from the start and neither will hamper their teams chances of winning.

The other advantage in this contest is the Hoyas' overall height differential. Here's an odd stat, that you'll see nowhere else. Ohio State's combined starters' height is 32'2". The Hoyas starting five measure up at 32'11". That's 9 inches difference or nearly 2 inches per starter. Not that the Buckeyes' players are small, but there's a height advantage for the Hoyas just about everywhere. Hibbert is actually 2 inches taller than Oden. Whether the overall height makes a difference will be hard to tell, but there's definitely an effect.

Tomorrow, I'll present my final picks for both semi-final games.

Saturday Semi-Finals: Florida vs. UCLA

8:47 pm EDT (#2 West) UCLA (30-5) vs. (#1 Midwest) Florida (33-5) - a rematch of last year's championship game and both teams have earned the right to be here, though Florida's route looks to have been considerably easier than that of the Bruins.

The Gators are on an 8-game win streak which includes winning the SEC tourney. Even in their own conference tournament, though, the Gators didn't face the best teams in the SEC, Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Kentucky.

Florida skated through the conference tournament with wins over Georgia, Mississippi and Arkansas. Only the Razorbacks made it to the Big Dance, and they were summarily dispatched in the opening round.

The teams Florida has played since then won't really have them properly prepped for UCLA, either. Jackson State was a walkover (112-69); they struggled with a very suspect Purdue team (74-67); struggled even more against the Butler Bulldogs (65-57), before beating up on Oregon, 85-77, a team which lost its shooting touch at precisely the wrong time.

Florida was not impressive in any of their wins, but they did what they had to do to advance. Against Oregon, specifically, they rode the red hot shooting of Lee Humphrey (7 of 13 3-pointers) and Taurean Green (4-8) to commandeer a healthy lead over the Ducks until the closing minutes of the game. Despite their substantial size advantage and Oregon's foul problems - 2 Ducks fouled out and 2 others finished with 4 fouls - the game got close late.

The considerable edge Florida had at the free throw line (28-43 to Oregon's 15-16) was also more than the margin of victory, so in retrospect, the Ducks (who also hit only 8-22 3-pointers) did more to lose that game than Florida did to win it.

The Gators also don't seem to have the same emotion as last year, which is understandable. Like sex, the first time is always the most thrilling, with each subsequent foray an opportunity to make mistakes. There are a lot of distractions which seem to have invaded Florida's game. The Gators are not as intense as last season's squad, despite having the same starting five. It's going to be a problem because the Bruins will be fired up.

Nothing prepares a team better than a loss. And last year's loss in the NCAA finals still stings the Bruins, especially their star, Arron Afflalo, who was basically invisible for much of the game.

Afflalo has raised his game, especially in the Bruins' last outing against Kansas. in which he led UCLA with 24 points in a 68-55 win. While Afflalo was doing the bulk of the scoring and hitting key shots at critical points, his running mate, Darren Collison was aiding the cause with tight defense, 5 steals and 14 points, including 2 of 3 3-pointers.

If anyone thinks defense doesn't matter, they'd better take a closer look at that game. The Bruins turned the ball over 24 times themselves! Most of the time, that would result in a big, fat L. Instead, the UCLA players contested every Kansas shot, forced 21 Jayhawk turnovers and barely won the battle of the boards. They also played with tremendous commitment and tempo on offense and ended up outshooting Kansas, 53-41%.

When it was all over, the Bruins had held the Jayhawks to their lowest point total of the season. They earned the win, and they did it the hard way.

When the Bruins take the court against Florida, Lorenzo Mata and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute are going to give Al Horford and Joakim Noah a pair of steel-eyed looks that speak revenge. Collison and Afflalo match up very well with Humphrey and Green, though Afflalo may have to defend the taller, and more dangerous, Corey Brewer.

That matchup is the real key to the game. If Afflalo can limit Brewer's penetration, or Brewer can keep Afflalo off-balance on offense, their respective team will win the game. Brewer and his mates have already done it. Afflalo and the Bruins are hungry for a championship and they come in healthy and well-prepared.

On Friday, I'll give you the final take on who's going to advance, but right now, I'm leaning heavily towards UCLA.

Conference Scoreboard and Peak Performers

Peak Performers of remaining teams:

Scoring
Player, game 1, 2, 3, 4, Total, Average

Ron Lewis, OHST, 13, 27, 25, 22, 87, 21.8
Arron Afflalo, UCLA, 22, 10, 17, 24, 73, 18.3
Corey Brewer, FL, 21, 17, 11, 14, 63, 15.8
Jeff Green, GTWN, 15, 11, 15, 22, 63, 15.8
Mike Conley Jr., OHST, 4, 21, 17, 19, 61, 15.3
Greg Oden, OHST, 19, 14, 9, 17, 59, 14.8
Darren Collison, UCLA, 14, 15, 12, 14, 55, 13.8
Joakim Noah, FL, 17, 9, 13, 14, 53, 13.3
Al Horford, FL, 15, 17, 16, 6, 52, 13.0
Roy Hibbert, GTWN, 10, 17, 12, 13, 52, 13.0

Rebounds
Player, game 1, 2, 3, 4, Total, Average

Roy Hibbert, GTWN, 13, 12, 10, 11, 46, 11.5
Joakim Noah, FL, 12, 9, 9, 14, 44, 11.0
Al Horford, FL, 16, 9, 7, 7, 39, 9.8
Greg Oden, OHST, 10, 12, 3, 9, 34, 8.5
Jeff Green, GTWN, 3, 12, 4, 9, 28, 7.0
Lorenzo Mata, UCLA, 7, 8, 9, 3, 27, 6.8

Assists
Player, game 1, 2, 3, 4, Total, Average

Taurean Green, FL, , 12, 2, 1, 3, 18, 4.5
Mike Conley Jr., OHST, 5, 4, 6, 2, 17, 4.3
Darren Collison, UCLA, 8, 2, 4, 1, 16, 4.0
Jessie Sapp, GTWN, 1, 3, 3, 8, 15, 3.8

Conference Scoreboard

Conference, Region:East, West, Midwest, South, Total

ACC: 4-2, 1-2, 1-2, 1-1, 7-7

Big East: 4-1, 2-2, 0-1, 1-1, 7-5

Big 10: 1-1, 1-2, 2-2, 4-0, 8-5

Big 12: 1-2, 3-1, 0-0, 2-1, 6-4

PAC-10: 3-2, 4-0, 3-2, 0-1, 10-5

SEC: 2-2, 1-1, 4-0, 2-1, 9-4

Press Relaease:

College Basketball Daily, a leading blog following the world of NCAA hoops, heads to the Final Four in full stride, with complete coverage, analysis and free picks for the two semi-final games and the championship game on Monday, April 2.

Rick Gagliano, publisher of the blog, says, "I've been putting in lots of hours analyzing the four teams remaining and despite only having Georgetown and Ohio State left in my original brackets, I'm pretty sure the Hoyas can win another national title."

"The game against Ohio State is one I've personally been anticipating for a long time. I can't wait to see the Roy Hibbert - Greg Oden matchup. It's going to be a war out there."

In the other semi-final game, Gagliano isn't about to tip his hand.

"I originally had Kansas facing Oregon, but now it's Florida vs. UCLA, a rematch of last year's championship. Last season, I had a shot at actually winning a pool with a partner, but when UCLA lost, we were knocked out of the first three spots, and wound up with nothing. I've got nothing invested this year except time and my reputation, and I'll put that up against the Vegas oddsmakers any day," said Gagliano.

"I've been covering college sports in one form or another for nearly 25 years and I still haven't figured it out, but I'm trying," joked the publisher.

Scheduled entries on the blog are the Conference Scoreboard (Tuesday), analysis of the Florida-UCLA game (Wednesday), analysis of the Geogetown-Ohio State game (Thursday), exclusive ATS picks on Friday. After that, Gagliano plans on analyzing the two semi-final games and providing a final pick on Sunday. After the championship, College Basketball Daily will do a season recap, name an All-American team and Player of the Year, before focusing on off-season recruitment and coaching changes.

As the name suggests, College Basketball Daily provides news, insight and analysis of college hoops every day.

Gators, Hoyas, Bruins, Buckeyes Head to Atlanta

Give the tournament selection committee a round of applause.

Two teams seeded #1 in their respective regions, the Florida Gators and Ohio State Buckeyes, head into the Final Four the favorites over a pair of #2 seeds which arguably could have been 1s.

Georgetown, the #2 seed in the East, know the second fiddle role well. For much of the regular season, they weren't even ranked in the Top 25, trailing the Pitt Panthers in the standings through the midway point of the Big East campaign.

On January 13, following consecutive losses to conference foes Villanova and Pittsburgh, the Hoyas were just 11-5. But, just as people were beginning to write Georgetown - and their twin towers of Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert - off, they reeled off 11 straight wins, culminating with a 61-53 revenge win against Pitt.

Two days later, the Hoyas lost a road game at Syracuse, but finished with a win over UConn to capture the Big East title at 13-3.

But the Hoyas weren't done. Not even close. They swept through the Big East tournament, knocking off Villanova and Notre Dame before hammering Pitt, this time by a shocking 65-42 score. While North Carolina was winning the ACC tournament and locking up the #1 seed, the Hoyas came in as a hungry #2, knocked off Belmont, Boston College and Vanderbilt to set up the match with the Tar Heels.

For most of the game, it looked as though they would go home losers to the top seed, until they rallied late in the game, tying the score on Jonathan Wallace's 3-pointer to force overtime at 81-all.

The Hoyas left no doubt in the OT, outscoring Carolina 15-3 in a convincing performance. Georgetown will face Ohio State in one of the two semi-final games on Saturday, March 31.

The Buckeyes, 92-76 winners over South #2 seed Memphis on Saturday, ended the Tigers' 25-game winning streak by extending their own to 20 straight, now the longest in the nation.

The UCLA Bruins took an entirely different path to their #2 seeding in the West region. After being ranked in the Top 10 most of the season and wrapping up the PAC-10 title with a win over Washington State, the Bruins came up flat in their regular season finale at Washington, losing 61-51 and looking lethargic the whole time. Then, in the opening round of the PAC-10 tournament, the Bruins unexpectedly fell to lightly-regarded Cal, 76-69.

That was likely the game that cost the Bruins a #1 seeding, which went to Kansas instead. The Bruins, however, got the last laugh on both the Jayhawks and the selection committee, thumping Kansas in the regional final on Saturday, 68-55.

The Bruins head to Atlanta with a renewed confidence to face Florida, the top seed from the Midwest region. The defending national champion Gators beat Oregon, 85-77, to reach the Final Four for the second consecutive year. The game is a rematch of last year's championship.

The Georgetown-Ohio State game will be the first semi-final, with tip-off scheduled for 6:07 pm EDT. Florida and UCLA will take the floor roughly 30 minutes after the conclusion of that game.

Tomorrow: Conference scoreboard and peak performers.
Wednesday: Breakdown of Ohio State - Georgetown
Thursday: Breakdown of Florida - UCLA
Friday: Final analysis and picks

NCAA Matchups & Picks for Sunday, March 25

2:40 pm EDT Florida (-6.5) Oregon - Tajuan Porter has silenced a lot of critics over the short course of his Oregon career. On Sunday, he'll get the opportunity to do it again.

Porter, easily the smallest player in the tournament at 5'6", put on a giant of a performance Friday night in Oregon's 76-72 win over UNLV, hitting 8 3-pointers and totaling 33 points, tying him with Tyler Hansbrough for the high single-game mark of the tournament.

Once again, Porter and the Ducks find themselves underdogs as they match up with the reigning national champions. Florida dispatched a pesky Butler squad on Thursday, 65-57, coming from behind as they have in all three of their tournament games thus far. They will try to get off to a faster start against the quicker Ducks.

The Gators have a huge size advantage inside with Joakim Noah and Al Horford anchoring the middle. The Ducks have no real center and actually start four guards along with forward Maarty Leunen, who stands 6'8" and specializes in outside shooting. While Leunen may draw one of Florida's big men outside when the Ducks are on offense, he's going to get backed down inside against Horford along with Malik Hairston, who will likely be matched up with Noah. Stopping those two inside is Oregon's biggest problem, one which they'll likely handle by denying them the ball on defense.

It wouldn't surprise anyone to see the Ducks press off made baskets to at least slow Florida's offense. Pressure and hitting 3-pointers will be the key to Oregon's success and they will get it done as their trio of sharpshooting guards, Porter, Aaron Brooks and Bryce Taylor make a shambles of Florida's backcourt. The Gators' dream of back-to-back championships dies here.

5:05 pm EDT North Carolina (-3.5) Georgetown - The Tar Heels struggled mightily against an upset minded USC squad on Thursday before blowing the game open late and advancing. USC ran out of gas as Carolina coach Roy Williams used his deep bench to maximum advantage, outscoring the Trojans 41-22 in the second half.

Georgetown stared elimination in the face and, as time wore down, came up with a huge shot by forward Jeff Green to oust the upset-minded Vanderbilt Commodores 66-65. Green's bank shot with 2.5 seconds remaining left Vandy without enough time to get off a quality shot at the buzzer.

The Hoyas are hoping that this round will be a little less dramatic, though putting away the Tar Heels isn't going to be easy. Along with Green, the other key inside player, Roy Hibbert, will have to be on top of his game to stop the aggressive inside play of Tyler Hansbrough and Brandan Wright. It's likely that Wright and Green will match up against each other, which would be one of the best pairings of the season. Both forwards are athletic, strong and can get up on the boards. It's doubtful either will have much of an edge, and may actually end up canceling each other out.

Hibbert and Hansbrough will battle inside, and the edge goes to Hansbrough, who, though smaller, at 6'9", is more agile and mobile than the seven-foot Hibbert. If Hansbrough is able to operate on the low post, the Tar Heels could cruise to the Final Four.

In the backcourt, once again Jonathan Wallace and Patrick Ewing Jr. of the Hoyas become the wild cards. If they can provide some offense with 3-pointers and penetration, Georgetown can hang around against the much deeper Tar Heels.

North Carolina will look to get out and run, while the Hoyas will try to turn the game into a half-court mosh. If Hibbert stays out of foul trouble, Georgetown's overall length should offset Carolina's depth and book the Hoyas a trip to Atlanta.

NCAA Matchups & Picks for Saturday, March 24

4:40 pm EDT Ohio State (-1) Memphis - Apparently, people are paying attention and they've come to the realization that Memphis is a pretty darn good team and also that Ohio State has been living on the edge over the past two games.

The Buckeyes' win over over Tennessee was not one that the Ohio State faithful are going to remember, having to rally from 20 points down to get the narrow win. The Tigers, on the other hand, should have plenty of confidence after their 1-point win over a very solid Texas A&M team. With that win, we now know how Memphis will react in tight games - with poise and determination.

The Tigers have now stretched their winning streak to 25 games not many have been close calls. They should be physically and emotionally ready for anything that Ohio State throws at them.

The biggest matchup in this game is going to be in the middle, where Greg Oden squares up with Joey Dorsey. Oden may have a height advantage, but nobody in this tournament has a wider, more physically imposing stature than Dorsey. Oden is listed at 7'0", 280, and Dorsey at 6'8", 260, but Dorsey is all muscle and is not going to allow Oden to settle in on the blocks. Nothing inside is going to come easy for Ohio State, and, if Oden gets in foul trouble again, it could be lights out for the Buckeyes.

Memphis also matches up well with the rest of the Ohio State squad, and again, they are going to look like the quicker players on the floor. Key players are going to be Mike Conley Jr. for the Buckeyes in his battle with Memphis point guard Andre Allen, who is a bulldog and lightning fast.

Allen will split time with the taller (6'6") Antonio Anderson, so depending on what coach Calipari wants to do with the ball - and Conley - he's got options.

Memphis also has excellent depth, something the Buckeyes do not enjoy. They are only 7 or 8 deep, whereas the Tigers usually go 9 deep and more.

Memphis has edges in experience, coaching and that 25-game win streak gives them enormous confidence. They will not be beaten. Ohio State will be heading home a week early.

7:05 pm EDT Kansas (-2) UCLA - If you like contrasting styles, look no further than this. Kansas has the hottest and one of the highest-scoring offenses in the nation, but UCLA plays the stingiest and nastiest defense. If either team manages to get things going their way early, this could turn into a rout.

However, it has to be understood that Kansas has superior talent at all positions. The Jayhawks can run up and down the floor all night and all of their starters can score.

By contrast, UCLA lives and dies off limiting opponent opportunities, contesting passes and shots and solid rebounding. Their scoring almost always has to come from Arron Afflalo and Darren Collison, who also is the point guard, handling distribution. If Kansas can shut down Afflalo, they'll win this easily, it's as simple as that.

Their wing players, Brandon Rush, Mario Chalmers and Julian Wright should be able to light up the Bruins from outside and in. The inside game between Loenzo Mata and Darrell Arthur may turn out to be a standoff, but the Jayhawks have a serious edge at most of the other positions.

It's doubtful that the Bruins will hold Kansas under 65 points, which is what they'll need to do to win. Even then, as Southern Illinois found out on Thursday, holding the score down to a favorable level is no guarantee of victory as Kansas won, 61-58, with their 2nd lowest output of the season. The Jayhawks can play defense as well and they will mow down the Bruins and head to the Final Four. This one could easily turn into a double-digit rout for Kansas.

NCAA Game Picks for Friday, March 23

7:10 pm EDT Florida (-10.5) Butler - It would be difficult to imagine a scenario in which the Gators did not win this game, but the Butler Bulldogs surely have other ideas. Butler will have to find a way to negate the inside game of Joakim Noah and Al Horford, which isn't going to be easy. Along with that, they'll have to find a solution for slashing forward Corey Brewer, who always seems to be the X-factor in big games.

After yesterday's close calls, I certainly wouldn't argue with anyone who thinks that Butler can keep the Gators within single digits. Players are very emotional at this point in the tournament and none of the remaining teams are going to be easy outs.

However, the Gators are likely to be at the very pinnacle of their game here and will look to blow this one open early. whether they'll be able to do that depends more on their guards - Green and Humphrey - who don't actually match up well against Butler's, than the inside game. Florida's guards have to get the ball inside. Look for the Butler to deny, zone and use back doors and slip screens on offense to hang in.

Florida will advance, but the Bulldogs will not fold and should keep this one under the line.

7:30 pm EDT Georgetown (-7.5) Vanderbilt - There's an important key in this game which a lot of people may not notice, and it's not how many rebounds Roy Hibbert is going to get (should be many). The key here is Vanderbilt's Shan Foster, who sometimes disappears offensively. When he doesn't score in double digits, the Commodores almost always lose.

Foster, a 6'6" junior will be paired against either Jeff Green or Jonathan Wallace, both of whom are good defenders and longer than the Vandy forward and that spells trouble.

Georgetown and Vanderbilt squared off way back on November 15, with the Hoyas grabbing an 86-70 road win. In that game, Foster scored just 2 points, while Hibbert and Green had huge games for the Hoyas. In Vandy's 11 losses, Foster scored 15 or less 10 times. His season average is 15.6, so this game becomes very simple for the Hoyas. Hold Foster under his average and get the win.

Besides the Foster angle, the Hoyas will have to handle the ball with care. Vandy is quicker, but Georgetown holds a huge size advantage and that should get them easily into the next round. The Hoyas should win this one handily.

9:40 pm EDT Oregon (-3) UNLV - The Ducks have incredible quickness and that's going to cause problems for the Runnin' Rebels on both offense and defense. As anyone who watches the Ducks knows, if they hit their 3-pointers, they are nearly unbeatable and they're likely to throw up at least 25 attempts from beyond the arc here.

If the Ducks hit at 40% from 3-point land, it's lights out for the Rebels unless they hit at better percentages than their season average. UNLV may opt to play a 2-3 zone, with pressure on the ball, to keep the score down, but Oregon can either shoot over it, drive through it or pass into it. No matter which way you slice this game up, it looks like the Ducks are going on to face Florida in the next round.

If you look at the tournament teams UNLV has beaten in the course of the season, you'll notice that none of them are still around. The Ducks, on the other hand, show regular season wins over three teams still in the hunt - Georgetown, UCLA and USC. Oregon should win this game by at least 8 points.

10:00 pm EDT North Carolina (-8.5) USC - The Tar Heels are one of the deepest teams in the tournament and coach Roy Williams will likely use a 10-man rotation here. The one constant will be Tyler Hansbrough, Carolina's top-scoring center/forward, who will probably see at least 32-35 minutes of action, especially if it's close, which this one should be.

Judging by the odds, Tar Heel nation is alive and well, with the Vegas line looking very generous in what is likely to be a close game, matching contrasting styles. While Carolina will want to get out and run, speed up the game and slash to the hoop, the USC defense is among the best in the nation. Stopping the penetration of Ty Lawson will be key for the Trojans, as he is very quick and a solid ball handler. Keeping him on the perimeter means keeping the ball out of the hands of finishers Hansbrough and Brandan Wright.

The Trojans should have success in stopping the Tar Heels and they should be capable of scoring on the other end. North Carolina is not among the best defensive teams, so if USC gets a lead or stays close, defensive close-outs late in the game should lead to a major upset and a #1 seed heading home.