NCAA Game Picks for Thursday, March 22

West Region

7:10 pm EDT Kansas (-9) Southern Illinois - The outcome of this game will likely be decided by the pace of play. If Kansas gets off early and scores easy baskets on run-outs, the Salukis will be up against it. Additionally, Southern Illinois' forward Randal Falker is going to find the going inside very tough. Between Sasha Kaun and Julian Wright, he's not going to have much room to operate.

The solid Saluki defense will have some effect, though Kansas is not a team that goes long between baskets. If there are point-scoring runs in this game, expect them to come from Kansas, as Brandon Rush and Mario Chalmers can light it up from outside in a hurry.

As for the generous point spread, Southern Illinois has only lost 6 games and only once, at Indiana, did they lose by more than 9. They lost that game by 10, and also lost at home to Arkansas by 8. Kansas is heads and shoulders better than either of those teams, they've won their two tournament games by 40 and 12. The Jayhawks should establish a double-digit lead about halfway through the 2nd half and hold off the Salukis from there.


9:40 pm EDT UCLA (-3) Pittsburgh - This is likely the weakest matchup of the week, though UCLA actually looks less likely to advance than the Panthers. Sure, Pitt blew a big lead against VCU, but they rallied to win that game. UCLA nearly coughed it up against Indiana, an inferior opponent, so they're not exactly world-beaters either.

There are two big difference makers in this game and they both belong to Pittsburgh. The first is Aaron Gray, Pitts' All-American center, who should benefit from being matched up with Lorenzo Mata and/or Luc Richard Mbah a Moute. He can dominate either player. The other Pitt advantage is in perimeter shooting, where the Panthers hold a distinct edge in accuracy. UCLA's Shipp and Afflalo are sub-par from beyond the arc; besides, they will be guarded closely by the Panthers quick guards.

One other potential problem for the Bruins is their dependence on Arron Afflalo for the bulk of their scoring. Last year in the Final Four, Afflalo was nearly invisible, especially in the championship game vs. Florida. The pressure of this game may get to him and cause another poor shooting game from the Bruins' all-star guard. If Pitt plays to their potential they should win this one going away.

South Region

7:27 pm EDT Texas A&M (-3) Memphis - This one is going to look more like a war than a basketball game. If the refs allow physical play, Joey Dorsey will be banging hard inside and tough to stop. The other wild card in this game is the health of Memphis' leading scorer Chris Douglas-Roberts, who worked out in a private practice yesterday, wants to play, but the best coach John Calipari could offer was that if he's ready, he'll play. So, his status is uncertain.

The Tigers have looked awesome in their wins over North Texas and Nevada, but the Aggies have a lot more going for them than those teams. Acie Law is a prime time player who will step up here, but the Tigers aren't going to be blown out. In a close call, look for the Aggies to survive a bump and grind kind of game and move on to the Elite 8.


9:57 pm EDT Ohio State (-5) Tennessee - The Vols have done well to get this far in the tournament and they are up against the top seed in the region, though it has to be noted that Ohio State nearly didn't make it here either. Only a missed free throw and a perfect 3-pointer by Ron Lewis got them to overtime against Xavier.

That said, nearly every championship team has a close call, and Tennessee just barely scraped by Virginia. After missing a slew of free throws earlier in the game, the Vols were fortunate to have Chris Lofton at the line for the final six attempts, all of which he converted.

The Buckeyes have proven to be less than invulnerable, but Tennessee just doesn't have the horses to stay with them here. Ohio State should move on, winning this one by a comfortable margin of 8-12.

Sweet 16 Regional Analysis: Midwest and East

Midwest Region

7:10 pm EDT #1 Florida (31-5) v. #5 Butler (29-6) -

The Florida Gators are probably the best-known starting five in college basketball. Since winning the tournament in 2006, all five returned to defend their championship. Emotional leader Joakim Noah teams with Al Horford in the frontcourt, while swingman Corey Brewer's slashing style complements the outside shooting of Taurean Green and Lee Humphrey. Their scoring is extremely balanced. While Horford leads the team in both scoring (13.3 ppg) and rebounding (9.3), Brewer averages 13.1, Green, 13.0, Noah, 12.1 and Humphrey, 9.9.

Humphrey is the top gun from outside, hitting 45% from beyond the arc. Sub Walter Hodge can provide instant offense with his 51% 3-point shooting. Green clicks at 39%. Besides Hodge, the Gators can also bring in a pair of talented and tall substitutes, Chris Richard and Marreese Speights, both of whom have solid interior games. While the Florida rotation is only 7 or at best, 8 deep, it's all it has to be as the Gators play excellent individual and team defense and all of the starters can score.

The Gators' opening round, 112-69 win over Jackson State resembled a Florida shoot-around, though the Purdue Boilermakers made them sweat a little in a 74-67 win. If Florida has an enemy it may be their own complacency. In their two games, they're rarely displayed the kind of passion and enthusiasm that sent them to the national championship last year.

Florida has a 9-3 record against tourney teams, with wins coming against Jackson State, Purdue, Kentucky (2), Arkansas (2), Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Ohio State. Their losses were to Kansas, Vanderbilt and Tennessee.


The Butler Bulldogs play the ultimate underdog in their matchup with the Gators. Butler tied for the regular season title with Wright State in the Horizon League and lost to that same team in the conference tourney championship game. In their two NCAA tourney games, Butler ousted Old Dominion, 57-46, before dispatching Maryland in the second round, 62-59.

The Bulldogs rely on defense (allowing only 57 ppg) and deft 3-point shooting from guard A.J. Graves (36%) and forward Pete Campbell (51%), who usually comes in off the bench. Graves is the team's top scorer at 17.1 ppg, followed by point guard Mike Green (13.9) and forward Brandon Cole (11.4). Rebounding is a team affair, with Green getting the most, at 6 per game.

Butler has to play a tight, low-turnover game in order to win. Since they are height-challenged, they also need to take good shots and hit a high percentage. That has been the formula for their success.

Against tournament teams, the Bulldogs are an impressive 8-3. Wins came against Notre Dame, Indiana, Tennessee, Gonzaga, Old Dominion, Maryland, Wright State and Purdue. The losses were to Wright St. (2) and Southern Illinois.


9:40 pm EDT #7 UNLV (30-6) v. #3 Oregon (28-7) - This is one of the more intriguing matchups of this round. Oregon escaped a slow down game with Miami (OH), 58-56, and then romped past Winthrop, 75-61. The Ducks finished third in the PAC-10, but then stomped to the conference tourney title in three lopsided games decided by an average margin of 20 points.

Oregon relies on quickness and high-percentage shooting. They are one of the smaller teams in remaining in the tournament, but they are likely the best ball-handling squad in the Sweet 16. Four of their five starters have positive assist-turnover ratios and three average more than a steal per game. All five starters score in double figures, led by Aaron Brooks at 17.8 ppg. Bryce Taylor and Tajuan Porter, both guards, average 14.6 and 14.2, respectively. Maarty Leunen and Malik Hairston, also the two leading rebounders, check in at 10.9.

The Ducks are deadly from beyond the arc. All five starters average 40% or better from 3-point range. If the Ducks are hitting their threes, they are almost impossible to beat. They've won their last 8 games.

Oregon was 10-5 against tournament teams, defeating Georgetown, UCLA, Arizona (2), USC, Stanford, Washington St. (2), Miami (OH) and Winthrop. Their losses were to UCLA, USC, (2) Arizona and Stanford.


UNLV flew under the radar most of the season, but came on late to grab second place in the Mountain West and then win the conference tourney for the automatic bid. They're on a 9-game win streak, including their two wins in the tournament, besting Georgia Tech, 67-63 in the opening round, and then pulling off the upset of #2-seed Wisconsin, 74-68.

The Runnin' Rebels are peaking at the right time and should prove to be a tough out. The bulk of their offense comes from their three starting guards, Wendell White (14.6), Wink Adams (14.1) and point guard Kevin Kruger (13.4). White is more of a swingman, doing almost all of his scoring inside. He rarely attempts 3-pointers. Michael Umeh averages just 7.7 per game, but he's been more effective in the tournament. The rebounding falls mostly to White and forward Gaston Essengue, at 6.2 and 5.0 per game, respectively.

The Rebels don't shoot well from beyond the arc. Kruger, Adams and Umeh all hit just about 36%. They are deep, however, with a 9-man rotation.

Against tournament teams, UNLV was 6-2. They recorded wins over Nevada, Texas Tech, BYU (2), Georgia Tech and Wisconsin, with losses to BYU and Arizona.


East Region

7:27 pm EDT #2 Georgetown (28-6) v. #6 Vanderbilt (22-11) - The Hoyas are on an impressive roll, having won 17 of their last 18 games, capturing both the Big East regular season and tournament titles in the process, not to mention a pair of big time wins, 80-55 over Belmont and 62-55 over Boston College in the first two rounds of the Big Dance.

Georgetown's success revolves around their two big men, 7'2" Roy Hibbert and 6'9" Jeff Green. They are 1-2 in scoring and rebounding on the team. Green 14.2 ppg, 6.2 rpg) and Hibbert (12.7, 6.7) are possibly the best inside tandem in the country. The other three starters, Jonathon Wallace, Jesse Sapp and Dajuan Summers put up 11, 9 and 9 points per game, respectively and are backed up by the deepest bench in the tournament. The Hoyas can go 10 deep with players averaging at least 8 minutes.

If Hibbert and Green don't do enough damage inside, Georgetown can also bomb away from 3-point range. Wallace shoots it at 48% and 6'8" super sub Patrick Ewing, Jr. nails 3's at 47%. The Hoyas are easily the tallest team remaining and when they control the paint, they are virtually unbeatable.

The Hoyas are 12-5 against tourney teams, with wins over Belmont, Boston College, Oral Roberts, Pitt (2), Marquette, Notre Dame (2), Villanova (2), Louisville and Vanderbilt. Their losses were to Oregon, Old Dominion, Duke, Villanova and Pitt.

Vanderbilt is one of the lower-seeded teams, at #6, to get this far. Only UNLV (7) exceeds them. The Commodores were the surprise of the SEC, mostly due to the play of Derrick Byars and Shan Foster, their two leading scorers at 17.0 and 15.6. Complementing them is guard Dan Cage, who shoots 3's at 44%. Inside, forward Ross Neltner leads the team in rebounding at 5.7/game, but hitting the boards is more of a team effort. 7 different players average at least 2.5 boards per game.

Vanderbilt handily won their first round game against George Washington, 77-44. By contrast, their 78-74 second round win over Washington State took two overtimes.

Vandy is a good ball-handling team. Each of their starters has a positive assist-turnover ratio, with point guard Alex Gordon the best at better than 2-1. The Commodores rely on quickness, crisp passing, solid defense, a high free throw percentage and team rebounding. Of all the teams remaining in the tourney, the Commodores best exemplify the team play concept.

The Commodores went 7-5 against tourney teams. The wins came against George Washington, Washington State, Georgia Tech, Tennessee, Kentucky (2) and Florida. Their losses were to Arkansas (2), Tennessee, Florida and Georgetown.


9:57 pm EDT #1 North Carolina (30-6) v. #5 USC (25-11) - Despite USC being a #5 vs. #1 North Carolina, this shapes up as a doozy of a matchup.

North Carolina is one of the deeper teams in the tourney. Coach Roy Williams wastes no time sending in subs, using 10 players and sometimes more in his rotation. the top 10 players for North Carolina average at least 10 minutes or more, and of the starters, only Tyler Hansbrough averages 30.

The Tar Heels cruised though the first two rounds of the tourney, whipping Eastern Kentucky, 86-65, before blasting Michigan State, 81-67 in the second round.

Hansbrough is a madman inside, with deft moves and a great shooting touch. He leads the team in scoring at 18.6 ppg, followed closely by fellow forward Brandan Wright (14.6). Point guard Ty Lawson averaged nearly a 3-1 assist-turnover ratio throughout the season. The rest of the team is full of role players who can all score and defend well in Williams' versatile motion offense.

North Carolina tied with Virginia in the ACC regular season, and won the ACC tourney. They weren't perfect down the stretch, but after consecutive road losses to Maryland and Georgia Tech, they've won 6 straight.

The Tar Heels are 14-5 against tournament teams. Their wins came over Eastern Kentucky, Michigan State, Duke (2), Boston College (2), Arizona, Georgia Tech, Virginia, Penn, Kentucky, Ohio State, Tennessee and Winthrop. They lost games to Gonzaga, Maryland, Virginia Tech (2) and Georgia Tech.

USC finished 2nd in the PAC-10 and lost in the championship game of the conference tourney to Oregon. In the NCAA, they've cruised past two quality opponents, whipping Arkansas, 77-60, and then dominating Texas, 87-68 in a game that was ostensibly decided by halftime.

The Trojans rely on timely shooting, ball movement and stellar defense. If they can shut down an opponent early, they have enough offense to keep just about any team at bay. Swingman Nick Young is their leading scorer at 17.8 ppg, and the next three scoring leaders, guards Lodrick Stewart, Gabe Pruitt and forward Taj Gibson, each average between 12 and 14 points per game.

Gibson is also a ferocious rebounder, leading the team with nearly nine a game, while Young and Stewart are capable from behind the arc, averaging 45 and 44%, respectively.

Against tournament teams, the Trojans were 11-7, with wins over Long Beach St., George Washington, Arkansas, Texas, Oregon (2), Arizona (2), Stanford (2) and Washington State. The losses were to UCLA (2), Oregon, Stanford, Washington State (2) and Kansas.

Sweet 16 Regional Breakdown: West and South

West Region:

7:10 pm EDT #1 Kansas (32-4) v. #4 Southern Illinois (29-6) - The Salukis didn't get any help as Kansas cruised through the first two rounds of the tournament, sailing past Niagara, 107-67 in the opening round before booting Kentucky on Sunday 88-76.

Southern Illinois has had arguably their best season ever, setting a school record for victories, and one more win would give them 30, a high-water mark for any program. But that one extra win will come against the high-flying Jayhawks, who have looked unstoppable in the first two game. The Salukis have won 15 of their last 16 games. This is their 6th straight NCAA tournament appearance and a win would put them in the elite 8 for the first time.

The Salukis, which entered the NCAA tournament as the third-best scoring defense in the nation with 56.5 points per game allowed, held both 1st and 2nd round opponents below that mark. In the opening round, they stymied Holy Cross in a 61-51 win, but their 2nd round win over Virginia Tech, 63-48, was even better, as they held the Hokies 8 points below their previous season-low.

The two wins were all the more remarkable in that they were achieved without starting forward Matt Shaw, the Salukis' 3rd leading scorer at 11.4 ppg and 2nd best rebounder (5.7/game). Shaw injured an ankle nearing the end of the first half of the Holy Cross game and hasn't played since. He scored 11 points and had 5 rebounds against the Crusaders.

Tony Boyle took Shaw's place in the lineup and responded with 14 points and 5 rebounds in the second half of the Holy Cross game. In the Virginia Tech game, Boyle only played 20 minutes, had 3 rebounds and did not score. It's not certain whether Shaw will be available for the Kansas game.
Southern Illinois' offense revolves around junior forward Randal Falker. A tough inside defender and rebounder, he's also the 2nd-leading scorer on the team. Senior guard Jamaal Tatum is the team's leader at 15.1 ppg. His, and backcourt mate Tony Young's ability to hit 3's are key. Young hits 3-pointers at a 38% clip; Tatum fires them up at 42%.

The Salukis will have to play great defense to slow down Kansas, which comes in scoring at nearly 80 points per game. Led offensively by Brandon Rush and Mario Chalmers, both can wreak havoc from beyond the arc. Chalmers hits 41% of his 3's, Rush, nearly 43%. Right behind them in the scoring stats is forward Julian Wright, averaging 12.2 ppg, mostly inside.

The Jayhawks may be the best balanced team in the nation except possibly for North Carolina. Kansas' top 5 scorers are separated by only 4 points on average. Sub Sherron Collins scores 9.8 ppg, right behind Darrell Arthur's 10.0. Point guard Russell Robinson scores just 7.1/game, but dishes an average of 4.5 assists. Center Sasha Kaun and forward Darnell Jackson round out the 8-man rotation, all of them averaging at least 15 minutes per contest.

Kansas won the Big 12 regular season and conference tournament and are riding a 13-game win streak.

Kansas has a 7-3 record against tournament teams with wins over Florida, Texas (2), USC, Boston College, Kentucky and Niagara and losses to Texas Tech, Texas A&M and Oral Roberts.

Southern Illinois is 6-3 against tourney teams. Their wins were over Virginia Tech (2), Creighton (2), Holy Cross and Butler, with losses to Arkansas, Indiana and Creighton.


9:40 pm EDT #3 Pittsburgh (29-7) v. #2 UCLA (28-5) - Both Pitt and the Bruins seem to be stumbling through the tournament. Pittsburgh easily handled Wright State, 79-58, in the opening round but blew a 19-point lead in their 2nd-round, 84-79 overtime win against VCU.

UCLA lost in the first round of the PAC-10 tournament and probably lost a #1 seed by doing so. The Bruins shook off any doubt and rust by pounding Weber State, 70-42 in their first tournament game, but allowed Indiana to come back from 13 points down to tie their 2nd round game with under a minute to play. The Bruins had to step up the defense and didn't allow another Indiana score after that, winning 54-49 on free throws. Still, UCLA didn't score from the field in the final 5:25 of that game, raising eyebrows.

The Panthers are led by All-American center Aaron Gray, who tops the team in both scoring and rebounding at 14.0 and 9.6 per game. He is the offense and the defense for this team which only runs 7-deep. Besides Gray in the middle, Pitt starts essentially four guards, each of whom can light it up from 3-point land. Second-leading scorer Mike Cook shoots 3's at 48% though he does most of his scoring inside. The most persistent outside threat is Ronald Ramon, a 43% shooter from outside the arc. Antonio Graves hits 40% and point guard Levance Fields, 35% on 3's.

The Panthers were second in the Big East behind Georgetown and also lost in the conference tournament finals to the Hoyas. Their late-season struggles were primary considerations in their sub-par #3 seeding. Pitt's offense can struggle at times, especially if Gray is being defended and the others aren't hitting their shots. The Panthers have had long stretches in games in which they didn't score and their defense is also suspect, allowing 63 points per game. They are likely one of the most vulnerable teams remaining.

UCLA won the PAC-10 regular season, winning all of their home games. Their offense flows from point guard Darren Collison to shooting guard Arron Afflalo and forward Josh Shipp, who are 1-2 on the team at 16.7 and 13.2 ppg. Neither can hit 3-pointers consistently. Afflalo is a 38% shooter outside the arc, while Shipp is a dreadful 31%.

After Collison, who is third at 12.8 and hits 48% of his 3's, are five players who contribute an average of 3.5 to 8.5 points per game. Most of these starters and reserves are inside-type players and that is the strength of the Bruins, both offensively, but more importantly, on defense. Lorenzo Mata is an anchor inside and Alfred Aboya and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (leading rebounder) are long and lean. The Bruins have one of the best defenses in the country, holding opponents to just a shade under 60 points per outing.

Against tournament teams the Bruins are 12-2. Their wins came against Indiana, Weber St., Washington St. (2), Kentucky, Georgia Tech, Texas A&M, Oregon, USC (2), Stanford and Arizona (2). The losses were to Stanford and Oregon.

Pittsburgh holds a 6-6 record against tournament teams. Wins came over Wright State, VCU, Georgetown, Villanova, Marquette and Louisville. Their losses were to Georgetown (2), Marquette (2), Louisville and Wisconsin.

South Region

7:27 pm EDT #2 Memphis (32-3) v. #3 Texas A&M (27-6) - If there's any team that looked like an unstoppable force over the first weekend of play, it was the Memphis Tigers. Both the 73-58 win over North Texas and the 78-62 drilling of Nevada turned into one-sided affairs late in the second halves. The interior play of Joey Dorsey (a true widebody monster at 6'9", 260 lbs.) and Robert Dozier was the perfect complement to the slick perimeter play of Chris Douglas-Roberts, Andre Anderson, and Jeremy Hunt.

The Tigers toiled through the regular season in the relative obscurity of Conference USA, which they totally overwhelmed, winning all 16 conference games plus 3 more to capture the conference tournament. Their two wins in the Big Dance stretched their winning streak to a nation's best 24 games. Coach John Calipari has put together a team that is capable of beating anyone, at any time, in any venue.

The only drawback for the Tigers might be the loss of leading scorer Douglas-Roberts, who suffered an ankle injury in the latter stages of the Nevada game and didn't practice Tuesday. His loss would be a major blow to Memphis, though he says he's going to play.

As the only entrant from Conference-USA, the Tigers didn't play too many tourney teams, but their record stands at 4-3, with wins over Gonzaga, Nevada, North Texas and Kentucky and losses to Tennessee, Arizona and Georgia Tech.

The Texas A&M Aggies had a spectacular season, even though they finished 2nd to Kansas in the Big 12. Led by prototype shooting guard Acie Law, who can create off the dribble or score from the outside, the Aggies have a nice blend of inside-outside game. Coach Billy Gilispie has a high-quality product that was as close to perfection as any team this season. Of their six losses, only one - a 64-52 loss at LSU - was by a wide margin. The other five were by a total of 10 points.

The offense revolves around Law, who leads the team with 18.2 ppg. Three other players average double figures. Joseph Jones, 13.4; Josh Carter, 12.1; Antanas Kavaliauskas, 11.8. Kavaliauskas and Jones handle most of the rebounding duties, while point guard Dominique Kirk has a nearly 3-1 assist to turnover ratio, though it is Law who leads the team in assists.

The one knock on the Aggies is that they aren't very deep. After the five starters they only have two players who average more than 15 minutes per game.

The Aggies are 4-5 against tournament teams. Their wins came over Texas, Kansas, Louisville and Penn. They lost to Texas Tech (2), Texas, LSU and UCLA.


9:57 pm EDT #1 Ohio St. (32-3) v. #5 Tennessee (24-10)

Ohio State has looked solid in their two tournament games, but had a scare against Xavier in the second round when they forced overtime on a Ron Lewis 3-pointer and won, 78-71, without center Greg Oden in the extra period. In their opening round 78-57 win over Central Connecticut State, Oden dominated with 19 points and 10 boards in 30 minutes.

While freshman sensation Oden gets most of the press, the Buckeyes have a solid supporting cast of four guards, though Dequan Cook (10.4 ppg, 4.7 rpg) usually plays a forward position. Point guard Mike Conley, Jr. averages 6.2 assists per game and has a nearly 3-1 assist to turnover ratio. Ron Lewis and Jamar Butler can rain down 3's, though their percentages are not outstanding. Lewis clicks at 36%, Butler at 39%.

The key to Ohio State success is the play of Oden in the middle. He's a dominating force and often plays a one-man zone in the defensive middle. Any shot taken in the lane is likely to be challenged by Oden, who is one of the nation's top shot blockers, averaging 3.4 per game.

Ohio State isn't a particularly explosive team, though once they get a lead they're prone to going on one-sided scoring runs and putting games away early in 3nd halves. Their strength is also their Achilles heel. If Oden gets into early foul trouble, they may struggle, though the big man has improved at keeping out of foul trouble as the season has progressed.

The Buckeyes have a gaudy 13-3 record against tournament teams with wins over Central Conn. St., Xavier, Eastern Kentucky, Tennessee, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan St. (2), Purdue (3), Wisconsin (2). Their losses were to North Carolina, Florida and Wisconsin.


The Tennessee Volunteers were sometimes shaky during the regular season, but whenever Chris Lofton is on the floor, the Vols have a good chance of winning. Their tournament opener - a 121-86 romp over Long Beach State - tied a first round scoring record. In the second round, they outlasted a gritty Virginia team, 77-74, with Lofton hitting 6 straight free throws to seal the win.

Tennessee is one of the smaller teams still in the tourney. They generally start three guards and two forwards, with no true center. Lofton leads the team in scoring at 20.7 ppg, followed by JaJuan Smith at 15.3 and reserve guard Ramar Smith at 10.6. Lofton, JaJuan Smith and forward Wayne Chism are the main outside threats. Lofton hits at 41% from 3-point range; Smith and Chism click at respectable 36 and 35%.

The main area of concern for the Vols is first and foremost ball control. they have a very poor team assist-turnover ratio, though point guard Dane Bradshaw is the one deft ball handler, at 4.7-1.7. On the other hand, the Vols are one of the better ball-hawking teams. Four different players average more than 1 steal per game, with the two primary defenders being Bradshaw and Lofton. If the Vols win the turnover battle, they generally are close enough to win games, as they are routinely outrebounded.

Tennessee has a 8-6 record vs. tournament teams. They had wins over Memphis, Texas, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Florida, Arkansas, Long Beach St. and Virginia. Losses came against Vanderbilt, Florida, Kentucky, Ohio State, Butler and North Carolina.

Tomorrow: East and Midwest Region analysis.

Oh-so-Sweet Sixteen

After a weekend of basketball bliss and bracket binges, we approach the epitome of college hoops - the Sweet 16 - likely to be the best 12 games in any 4 days of the season. The survivors will, of course, end up in the Final Four, but the Sweet 16 poses an equally difficult task. All of the teams in this year's regionals are top-shelf. A quick look at last week's AP Top 25 reveals that only Vanderbilt (the #6 seed in the East region) didn't make that list.

There were ostensibly no big upsets in the opening weekend of play. The lowest seeds remaining are #7 UNLV and #6 Vanderbilt Three #5s made the grade: Butler, Tennessee and USC. Southern Illinois is the lone #4 in the regionals; after that all of the 1-3 seeds made it to the third round except Washington State (#3 East) and Wisconsin (#2 Midwest).

The big losers in the conference breakdown were the Big Ten and Big East. Big 10 basketball didn't make the grade over the first weekend when Purdue, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan State and Wisconsin were all summarily booted. Add to that Ohio State needing a buzzer-beating 3-pointer to get into overtime and eventually defeat Xavier, and the #1 ranked team in the country all of a sudden doesn't look very imposing. They alone now carry the Big 10 banner.

The Big East lost 4 of the 6 they sent to the tourney. Notre Dame, Villanova and Marquette didn't even make it past the first round. Louisville lost a tough one to Texas A&M. Only Pitt (another team that needed overtime in the 2nd round) and Georgetown remain from the nation's largest (16 teams) conference. Maybe West Virginia or Syracuse might have fared better. Maybe not. It was a crowded, competitive field beyond the #1-3 seedings.

The Thursday and Friday matchups, which I'll break down on Tuesday and Wednesday, are intriguing, but none moreso than the Florida - Butler tilt in the Midwest. The Gators were tested briefly by Purdue, but they'll face one of the best defensive teams in the country in the Bulldogs, and one which has a 7-1 record against tournament teams with wins over Notre Dame, Tennessee, Indiana and Gonzaga back in November, Purdue in December, plus tourney wins over Old Dominion and Maryland. Their only loss was a 68-64 road loss to Southern Illinois in February. Butler is, right now, the ultimate Cinderella team with aims at the defending champion.

Before getting ahead of myself and doing game analysis, here's some of the prime time performers still remaining in the field of 16.

Scoring (1st game, 2nd game, total, average):
Tyler Hansbrough, NC: 21, 33, 54, 27.0
Acie Law, Texas A&M: 20, 26, 46, 23.0
Chris Lofton, Tenn.: 25, 20, 45, 22.5
Nick Young, USC: 20, 22, 42, 21.0
Derrick Byars, Vanderbilt: 12, 27, 39, 19.5
Shan Foster, Vanderbilt: 18, 20, 38, 19.0
Aaron Brooks, Oregon: 18, 22, 40, 20.0
JaJuan Smith, Tenn.: 24, 16, 40, 20.0
Ron Lewis, Ohio St.: 13, 27, 40, 20.0
Wendell White, UNLV: 19, 22, 41, 20.5
Corey Brewer, Florida: 21, 17, 38, 19.0
A. J. Graves, Butler: 18, 19, 37, 17.5
Mario Chalmers, Kansas: 19, 16, 35, 17.0


Rebounds (1st game, 2nd game, total, average):
Roy Hibbert, Georgetown: 13, 12, 25, 12.5
Al Horford, Florida: 16, 9, 25, 12.5
Joey Dorsey, Memphis: 15, 9, 24, 12.0
Greg Oden, Ohio St.: 10, 12, 22, 11.0
Taj Gibson, USC: 8, 14, 22, 11.0
Randal Falker, 8, 12, 20, 10.0
Joseph Jones, Texas A&M: 11, 8, 19, 9.5
Mike Green, Butler: 10, 8, 18, 9.0
Julian Wright, Kansas: 10, 8, 18, 9.0


Assists (1st game, 2nd game, total, average):
Kevin Kruger, UNLV: 8, 7, 15, 7.5
Taurean Green, Florida: 12, 2, 14, 7.0
Levance Fields, Pitt.: 9, 4, 13, 6.5
Gabe Pruitt, USC: 4, 8, 12, 6.0



Here's the Thursday-Friday lineup (all times Eastern):

Thursday, March 22:

West Region (San Jose, CA)
7:10 pm #4 Southern Ill. (29-6) v. #1 Kansas (32-4)
9:40 pm #3 Pittsburgh (29-7) v. #2 UCLA (28-5)

South Region (San Antonio, TX)
7:27 pm #3 Texas A&M (27-6) v. #2 Memphis (32-3)
9:57 pm #5 Tennessee (24-10) v. #1 Ohio St. (32-3)

Friday, March 23:

Midwest Region (St. Louis, MO)
7:10 pm #5 Butler (29-6) v. #1 Florida (31-5)
9:40 pm #7 UNLV (30-6) v. #3 Oregon (28-7)

East Region (East Rutherford, NJ)
7:27 pm #6 Vanderbilt (22-11) v. #2 Georgetown (28-6)
9:57 pm #5 USC (25-11) v. #1 North Carolina (30-6)

Sunday Sends 8 to Sweet 16

Tennessee 77 Virginia 74 - Chris Lofton was only 4-16 from the field, but he led the Vols with 20 points, hitting 6 straight free throws in the final minute to deny Virginia an opportunity to play Ohio in the Sweet 16. J. R. Reynolds scored 26 for Virginia, but he was not a factor in the latter stages of the game, apparently suffering an injury nearing halftime. Tennessee hit 11-26 3-pointers, but free throw shooting kept the game close. There were 51 total fouls, and 68 free throw attempts.Virginia hit 31-36 while Tennessee went 22-32.

UNLV 74 Wisconsin 68 - The Runnin' Rebels pulled off the biggest upset of the tournament, sending the Midwest's #2 seed home early. Wisconsin got off to a slow start again and trailed by 12 at the half. But the Badger's scoring duo of Alando Tucker and Kammron Taylor brought the Badgers back with a 21-7 run to open the 2nd half and take a lead at 48-46. The Rebels battled back, however, and took a 61-54 lead on a pair of 3-pointers by Kevin Kruger and two free throws by Michael Umeh. As time wore down, the Badgers could get no closer than three as UNLV advanced to the regionals to face Oregon.

Florida 74 Purdue 67 - Purdue took an early lead and maintained their advantage five minutes into the 2nd half as Florida was ice cold and made numerous mistakes on offense. But then, a dunk and a tip-in by Joakim Noah gave Florida a lead at 34-33. Moments later, Taurean Green hit a pair of 3-pointers to put Florida up by 5.

Oregon 75 Winthrop 61 - Aaron Brooks scored 14 first half points to help the Ducks build a 4-point lead to intermission, stretching it to double-digits as the game wore on. Fueled by the 3-point shooting of Brooks and Tajuan Porter, the Ducks pressed their advantage to produce a convincing second round conquest. Brooks, who led the scoring parade with 22 points, hit 5 of 9 threes. Porter was 4 for 7 behind the line and scored 14.

Memphis 78 Nevada 62 - Memphis maintained a single-digit lead most of the game, but could never quite shake loose from Nevada. The turning point could have come with about 8 minutes remaining in the game when the Tigers' leading scorer, Chris Douglas-Roberts left the game with an ankle injury. The Wolf Pack closed to within two points with under 6 minutes remaining, but could get no closer as Memphis was too physical and quick down the stretch. Memphis heads for a date with Texas A&M in the East regional. Douglas-Roberts and Jeremy Hunt led the Tigers in scoring with 16 apiece. Nevada's Nick Fazekas had 20 and Marcelus Kemp, 18.

Southern Illinois 63 Virginia Tech 48 - Jamaal Tatum hit 6-9 3-pointers for 21 points and Tony Young was 4-8 from beyond the arc for 17, as the Salukis romped past Virginia Tech and into the regionals. While the Hokies were missing badly from long range (2-13), Randal Falker was putting together a double-double with 10 points and 12 rebounds. The #4 seed in the West, Southern Illinois has Kansas next on the schedule.

Kansas 88 Kentucky 76 - The Jayhawks shot the lights out on Kentucky in a game that was never in doubt after halftime. Brandon Rush nailed 6 of 7 3-pointers and Julian Wright poured in 21 to lead Kansas into the next round with 19 points and . The Wildcats' Bobby Perry and Randolph Morris tried to keep pace, but their 21 and 22 points alone were not enough to offset Kansas' 57% shooting.

USC 87 Texas 68 - The more-experienced Trojans came out firing against Texas and swamped the Longhorns, swelling a 7-point halftime lead to 17 after the break. Nick Young provided the bulk of the offense with XX points. Kevin Durant had a game high 30, but fellow freshmen Damian James and D.J. Augustin were held to just 8 points on 2 of 11 shooting. USC, one of the nation's best defensive teams, held the high-powered Texas offense to 38% shooting, including 7-28 from beyond the arc. Daniel Hackett had 20 points for the Trojans; Taj Gibson tallied 17 with 13 rebounds. USC will face North Carolina in the East regional.

Making the Grade: Saturday Produces Half of Sweet 16

Ohio State 78 Xavier 71 (OT) - The Musketeers nearly pulled off the biggest upset of the tournament, but Justin Cage, who was a perfect 8-8 from the field, missed the second of two free throws, allowing Ohio State to tie the game at the buzzer on Ron Lewis' dramatic 3-pointer. The Buckeyes played the overtime without center Greg Oden, who had fouled out in regulation, but freshman Mike Conley Jr. took over, scoring 11 of his 21 points in the extra session. Lewis was the game's high scorer with 27 points and 4-5 shooting from 3-point range. Oden finished with 14 points and 12 rebounds.

Butler 62 Maryland 59 - Butler managed to control the pace of the game, forced Maryland into 17 turnovers and hit 12 of 26 3-pointers to advance in the Widwest region. The Bulldogs will likely face Florida in the next round, as the Gators play Purdue on Sunday.

Texas A&M 72 Louisville 69 - These two heavyweights slugged it out until the final buzzer. Louisville's Edgar Sosa briefly became the highest single-game scorer in the tournament with 31 points, but it was not quite enough, as Acie Law's 26 points got the Aggies into the Sweet 16 in the South region, where they will play the winner of Sunday's Memphis-Nevada tilt.

Vanderbilt 78 Washington State 74 (2OT) - It took two overtimes, but the Commodores became the highest seed (6) to advance thus far. Led by Derrick Byars' game-high 27 points, Vandy rallied from an 8-point halftime deficit to take out the #3 seed in the East.

Pittsburgh 84 Virginia Commonwealth 79 - After knocking off Duke in the opening round, VCU nearly upset the #3 seed in the West, Pitt. The Panthers led by as many as 19 points in the game, but the Rams would not let their dreams die, as they continued to pressure Pitt into mistakes which they turned into baskets. Pitt just barely escaped in overtime, despite shooting 54%. Pitt committed 15 turnovers and were only 16-27 from the foul line (59%). Sam Young led 5 Pittsburgh players in double figures with 15 points.

Georgetown 62 Boston College 55 - BC's Tyrese Rice played great again, leading all scorers with 22 points, but Georgetown's interior domination eventually wore down the Eagles. Jeff Green had 11 points and 12 rebounds to go with center Roy Hibbert's 17 and 12. The Hoyas also showed proficiency at the foul line, hitting 14 of 19 free throws. The Hoyas move on to play Vanderbilt in the East regionals.

UCLA 54 Indiana 49 - In a game that could only be described as ugly, UCLA escaped a late run of three-pointers by Indiana that tied the game with under 2 minutes remaining. The Bruins shot 36% to the Hoosiers' 33%, but his 18-24 free throws to more than provide the margin of victory. This game featured plenty of defense, but mostly just plain bad shooting. The Bruins hit just 2-9 from 3-point range and Darren Collison led all scorers with 15 points. The good news for UCLA is that they next face another suspect squad, Pittsburgh, in the West regional.

North Carolina 81 Michigan State 67 - Drew Neitzel did all he could to keep the Spartans in the game, scoring 26 points while directing the Michigan State offense. North Carolina's Tyler Hansbrough, though, was too much to handle inside, as he became the tournament's single-game high scorer with 33 points, hitting 10-17 shots from the field and 13-17 free throws. Hansbrough also reeled in 9 rebounds in 38 minutes of play, the most by any Tar Heel. Point guard Ty Lawson was also a standout performer, dropping in 20 of his own while dishing out 8 assists. Lawson was credited with only one turnover for the entire game.

2nd Round Picks for Sunday, March 18

All Times Eastern

12:10 pm Tennessee (-2.5) Virginia - Both of these squads won their openers by wide margins, but neither expects this 4-5 matchup to be a rout. There isn't much separating these two teams, as evidenced by their games against North Carolina, a common opponent. The Vols lost by 14 to the Tar Heels, whereas Virginia lost by 10. A slight edge has to go to Tennessee, as they have won 5 of their last 6, while the Cavaliers are just 3-3 over the same span. The winner gets Ohio State in the Sweet 16.

2:15 pm Memphis (-5) Nevada - The Wolf Pack survived against a solid Creighton team in overtime and that win may have helped them prepare for Memphis. As for the Tigers, they haven't been in a close contest in a long while and still hold the nation's longest winning streak at 23 games. One wonders how they will perform in a tight game. Nevada's star big man, Nick Fazekas, will have his hands full against the Tigers' front line, which is big and physical, but the backcourt matchup between Ramon Sessions and Memphis' Chris Douglas-Roberts should be interesting as well. Joey Dorsey of Memphis is very physical inside and should prove to be the key for the Tigers, but the Wolf Pack's Marcelus Kemp will be the difference maker in a major upset.

2:30 pm Wisconsin (-5.5) UNLV - Now that Wisconsin has a tournament win under their belts, they'll probably be a little less tentative offensively which spells real trouble for the Runnin' Rebels. Another bonus for the Badgers is that Brian Butch is available, and his inside presence could provide a real lift. For UNLV, the victory over Georgia Tech in the first round stretched their winning streak to 8 games, but they haven't yet met a team like the Badgers or players with the skills of Alando Tucker and Kammron Taylor. Tucker will surely get his points, but if Taylor gets hot from outside, it will be a long, long day for the kids from Nevada.

2:40 pm Southern Illinois (-1) Virginia Tech - The Hokies were fortunate to squeak past Illinois in their opener, and will face an even better defense in the Salukis, the highest-seeded mid-major in the tournament at #4 in the West. The oddsmakers seem to be taking the position that the Salukis are not quite as good as their seeding, but it would pay to go against them here. A win by Southern Illinois puts them in the Sweet 16, where they belong. Their tight defense and disciplined style should serve them well here. They've lost just once in the last 15 games and actually own a win over Hokies this season, a 69-64 home win back in November. It should be close, but eventually, Southern Illinois advances.

2:50 pm Oregon (-3.5) Winthrop - After Winthrop's victory over Notre Dame, everybody is wondering just how far the Eagles can fly. While the guard play may prove to be fairly even in this game, Oregon doesn't have and answer for Craig Bradshaw, who led the Eagles with 24 points in their opening round win. It will be up to Oregon to use ball movement and three-pointers to overcome a very worthy opponent. The Eagles have won 19 straight, but prior to that run they show losses to North Carolina, Wisconsin, Maryland and Texas A&M, the closest of those being by 6 to the Tar Heels. Oregon shows wins over Georgetown, UCLA, USC, Arizona and Washington State. Edge, and the win, to the Ducks.

4:45 pm Florida (-11.5) Purdue - Purdue finished tied for 4th in the Big 10 with Illinois and Iowa. The Hawkeyes didn't make the tourney and the Illini are already out. The Boilermakers beat a sub-par Arizona team, which also didn't belong. In what looks like the biggest mismatch of the day, Florida should cruise past Purdue by 20.

5:05 pm Kansas (-8) Kentucky - The Wildcats outlasted a somewhat limited Villanova team in the opening round as the Jayhawks had a shoot-around against overmatched Niagara. This one figures to be a little closer for Kansas, but they are of much higher caliber than Kentucky.

5:20 pm Texas (-2.5) USC - The weekend closes out with one of the more promising matchups of the tournament. Texas comes fully loaded with freshmen Kevin Durant, Damian James and D. J. Augustin. Add sophomore A. J. Abrams to the mix and the Longhorns have the youngest squad in the the tourney. USC has played a tough PAC-10 schedule, is one of the best defensive teams in the country and will be put to the test by the exuberant Texans. Meanwhile, the Longhorns have lost a lot of close games, probably because they don't play much defense. Texas is a 4 seed, USC a 5, but this one will go to the Trojans, who have the edge in maturity.

First Round Recaps from Friday, March 16

Virginia 84 Albany 57 - J. R. Reynolds popped for 28 points as the Cavaliers routed Albany's Great Danes. Virginia was on the mark from beyond the arc, hitting 9-17 3-pointers. They also controlled the paint, outrebounding Albany, 41-25.

UNLV 67 Georgia Tech 63 - The Runnin' Rebels hit 21 of 27 free throws, played solid defense down the stretch and outlasted the Yellow Jackets. Michael Umeh and Wendell White each scored 19 for the victors.

Memphis 73 North Texas 58 - North Texas kept the game close for most of the first half, but Memphis pulled away in the 2nd half and didn't allow the Mean Green any closer than 10, rolling to their 23rd straight win. The Tigers weren't especially sharp, shooting only 41% and just 4-16 on 3s. Chris Douglas-Roberts led the way with 16 points.

Winthrop 74 Notre Dame 64 - Winthrop grabbed a 4-point lead at halftime and stretched it to 20 in the opening 7 minutes of the second half. Undeterred, the Irish battled back, cutting the lead to 4 at 56-52. The Irish three times cut the lead to one point only to see the Eagles return the score. Luke Harangody hit a bank shot to give the Irish a brief one-point lead with under 3 minutes to play, but Winthrop responded with key shots and free throws down the stretch. Seniors Craig Bradshaw scored 24 and Torrell Martin added 20 points and 11 rebounds for the Eagles.

Tennessee 121 Long Beach St. 86 - Chris Lofton scored 25 points and 10 different Volunteer players scored as Tennessee tied a first round scoring record. JaJuan Smith added 24 points; Ramar Smith had 22. The Vols clicked on 14 of 27 3-pointers.

Wisconsin 76 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 63 - The Badgers couldn't hit a shot as the underdog Islanders sprinted to a 10-0 lead, expanding it to 25-7 with less than four minutes left in the half. But the Badgers went on a 12-2 run to close out the half at 27-19. In the second half and Wisconsin continued to close the gap. When Kammron Taylor hit a pair of 3s near the midway point of the half, the game was tied at 47. From there, Wisconsin slowly inched clear for the decisive win. The Badgers, who were 0-8 in the first half from beyond the arc, hit 7 of 12 in the 2nd. Taylor scored all of his game high 24 points in the 2nd half as he and Alando Tucker combined for 38 second-half points. Tucker finished with 23.

Nevada 77 Creighton 71 - As expected these two played toe-to-toe for the entire 40 minutes and went into overtime. Nevada's star, Nick Fazekas, fouled out with 3:03 left in overtime, but his teammates came through with key baskets, outscoring the Bluejays 18-12 in the extra session. Marcellus Kemp was sensational for the Wolf Pack, scoring 27 points with 12 rebounds. Fazekas also registered a double-double with 17 points and 11 rebounds.

Oregon 58 Miami (OH) 56 - It wasn't supposed to be this close, but Miami's Michael Bramos hit a 3-pointer at the buzzer for the final margin. Oregon started slowly, down 9-0 in the early going, but built an 11-point bulge on the strength of Aaron Brooks' 18 points. The RedHawks of Miami slowed the pace and worked out good shots, but could not overwhelm the plucky Ducks.

Virginia Tech 54 Illinois 52 - Illinois led most of the game, but the Hokies pressured the ball, got turnovers and baskets late and stole one from the Illini. The 19 Illinois turnovers were key, as the Illini outshot and outrebounded Virginia Tech.

Kansas 107 Niagara 67 - Mario Chalmers led 13 different Kansas scorers with 19 points as the Jayhawks made quick work of the Purple Eagles. Kansas shot 54%, including 13-22 from beyond the arc.

Purdue 72 Arizona 63 - Purdue's defense forced 17 Arizona turnovers, Carl Landry scored a game-high 21 points and the Boilermakers sent Lute Olson and the Wildcats home early.

Texas 79 New Mexico St. 67 - The Longhorns pulled away late in the game to advance to a second round matchup with USC. Kevin Durant had 27 points and 8 rebounds, hitting 15 of 16 from the free throw line.

Southern Illinois 61 Holy Cross 51 - The Crusaders of Holy Cross slowed the game down but hit only 1 of 11 3-point attempts in a game which produced 38 turnovers. Led by Randal Falker's 12 points, and Tony Boyle's career-high 14, the Salukis edged clear late in the first half and never relinquished their lead.

Kentucky 67 Villanova 58 - Randolph Morris' inside presence was a huge factor in Kentucky's win. Morris registered 19 points and 11 rebounds as Kentucky held Villanova at bay.

Florida 112 Jackson State 69 - This just looked like fun for the defending national champs. Led by Corey Brewer's 21 points, Florida put 6 different players into double figures and both Joakim Noah and Al Horford had double-doubles. Noah scored 17 with 12 rebounds while Horford had 15 points and 16 boards. The Gators shot 59% overall.

USC 77 Arkansas 60 - The Razorbacks were a questionable addition to the NCAA field and the Trojans showed that the selection committee could have done better. USC was never tested as Nick Young scored 20 points to lead the first round win. Arkansas shot only 37% and were outrebounded, 39-26.

Picks for 2nd round games of Saturday, March 17

All Times Eastern

1:10 pm Ohio State (-7) Xavier - Ohio State romped in the first round, while Xavier barely got past stubborn BYU. If Greg Oden isn't enough to get Ohio State into the next round, his often overlooked supporting cast will be. Xavier has no good answer for Oden, but their emotion could make this closer than it should be. Still, the Buckeyes are looking very solid and should win handily, by 10 to 15.

3:20 pm Maryland (-5.5) Butler - The Terrapins showed some resiliency against Davidson, a team more than willing to go up and down the court in a hurry. Butler, however, will display more defense and could be the best defensive team the Terps have seen this season. Maryland has a size advantage inside which they should use to their advantage, but they'll have to be at the top of their game (and they seem to be) to get by the Bulldogs. The Terrapins should move on.

3:40 pm Texas A&M (-2.5) Louisville - A great 2nd round matchup here with plenty of talent on both sides. The Cardinals and Aggies are two of the better teams in this bracket and either could emerge and go even further. There's little to separate these squads, so taking the points seem to be the only option as the game figures to go down to the wire.

5:40 pm Washington State (-1.5) Vanderbilt - If you're looking for Cinderella, the Vanderbilt Commodores seem to have the right size foot for the slipper. Vandy's won as many big games as have the Cougars and so far, the SEC looks to be pretty solid. Both of these teams have at least three players who could step up and be stars, but keep your eyes on Vandy's Shan Foster and Washington State's Ivory Clark. Vanderbilt's defense may be a little better than anyone cares to admit and that could lead to a big win.

5:50 pm Pittsburgh (-6 1/2) Virginia Commonwealth - VCU proved how dangerous they are by ousting Duke in the first round. Other teams might have folded more easily against the Rams' relentless pressure, but coach K had his troops prepared and they played to the best of their ability. VCU just wanted it more and while point guard Eric Maynor was the star, his backcourt mates, B.A. Walker and Jesse Pellot-Rosa, may strut their stuff here. VCU has to put the clamps down on Pitt center Aaron Gray, who looms as the X-factor here. Another thing to watch is the crows reaction in Buffalo, where there is no love for anything from Pittsburgh. That also will work to the Rams' favor, who are the pick to spring another, even more stunning, upset here.

5:50 pm Georgetown (-8) Boston College - Boston College was impressive in their opening round win over Texas Tech. Their interior defense was pretty good, but it's going to be a different story against Roy Hibbert and Jeff Green inside. The Hoyas look like the best team in this bracket right now and though Boston College may keep this close, Georgetown will wear them down and out of the tournament. Georgetown will win and more than likely cover the spread.

8:10 pm UCLA (-7) Indiana - The Hoosiers didn't exactly shoot the lights out in their win over Gonzaga on Thursday, and they'll have to do better than 9-25 from beyond the arc if they plan on advancing past the Bruins. UCLA is, after all, the #2 seed in the West bracket, and they look to be pretty well primed for this game after routing Weber State by 28 points. If the Bruins are on their game, this one could be over by halftime.

8:20 pm North Carolina(-10) Michigan State - Only a fool would not appreciate the coaching matchup between Tom Izzo and Roy Williams here. Izzo will have his guys as ready as a team can be and they aren't going to be the least bit fazed or intimidated by Carolina's high-octane offense. Izzo's plan is for his guys to play the kind of fundamentally sound defense for which his teams are known and work the ball inside. That's a good tactic against anyone, and if they can get inside Tyler Hansbrough's head, they can pull off the upset. The Tar Heels will likely win this game, though taking the generous gift of 10 points from Vegas offers the makings of a profitable wager. The Spartans have only lost by more than 10 points three times this season. Their style of play and Izzo's understanding of momentum and pace usually keeps their games close.

1st Round Recaps from Thursday's games

Maryland 82 Davidson 70 - Davidson got Maryland to play an up-tempo game and actually led by as much as 8 at one point, but the Terps' defense and Davidson's inability to hit 3-pointers late turned a close game to Maryland's advantage. Davidson failed to score from the field in the final three minutes. Davidson's Stephen Curry posted the high number of the day with 30 points.

Boston College 84 Texas Tech 75 - In a game nearly devoid of defense, Boston College outlasted the Red Raiders, holding a narrow advantage through the second half. Tyrese Rice was the game's high scorer with 26 points.

Louisville 78 Stanford 58 - Plenty of people thought Stanford didn't belong in this tourney and Louisville proved them right with a lopsided win. This game, which was never close, should make the case for a lot of smaller conference schools who didn't get a fair shake this year. Freshman Edgar Sosa was a standout performer for Louisville with 16 points and stellar defense.

Washington State 70 Oral Roberts 54 Ivory Clark had 19 points, 6 rebounds and 5 blocked shots as the Cougars raced past undermanned Oral Roberts.

Butler 57 Old Dominion 46 Keyed by Pete Campbell's 3 straight 3-pointers the Butler Bulldogs went on a 15-0 run midway through the 2nd half to take control and cruise to the opening-round win. Butler's defense was spectacular, limiting Old Dominion to 33% shooting. A.J. Graves led the Bulldogs with 18 points.

Georgetown 80 Belmont 55 - The Hoyas dominated from start to finish and got their tournament off to a flying start. Roy Hibbert had 10 points and 13 rebounds in 22 minutes.

Texas A&M 68 Pennsylvania 52 Penn rallied from 15 points down to briefly grab a 2-point 2nd half lead, but the Aggies responded with an 18-6 run and maintained a comfortable lead the rest of the way. Acie Law paced the Aggies with 20 points and 6 boards.

Vanderbilt 77 George Washington 44 - The Commodores held George Washington to 27% shooting and their lowest point total of the season. Shan Foster led the way for Vandy with 16 points. 10 different players scored for Vanderbilt.

Ohio St. 78 Central Connecticut St. 57 - Greg Oden dominated in the paint, scoring 19 points and grabbing 10 rebounds. Jamar Butler hit 5-6 3-pointers en route to 17 points and an easy Buckeye win.

Virginia Commonwealth 79 Duke 77 - Duke proved to be vulnerable, as many had expected, and Eric Maynor, who pestered the Blue Devils' Greg Paulus all afternoon, scored the game-winner with 1.8 seconds left. Maynor scored 22 points and dished 8 assists. VCU played with intensity and a full-court press the entire game - forcing 17 Duke turnovers - and eventually wore down the Blue Devils for the biggest upset of the day. The Rams face Pitt on Saturday.

Michigan St. 61 Marquette 49 - The teacher schooled the student as Tom Izzo's Spartans grabbed an early lead and were never challenged by Tom Crean's Golden Eagles. Michigan St. shot 54% while limiting Marquette to just 32%.

UCLA 70 Weber St. 42 - The Bruins shook off two straight losses at the end of their season and romped to a one-sided victory. Arron Afflalo led all scorers with 22 points. Next up for UCLA, Indiana.

Xavier 79 at Brigham Young 77 - Xavier rallied in the second half and held on for the win over BYU to move into the 2nd round against #1 seed Ohio State on Saturday, setting up an all-Ohio matchup.

Pittsburgh 79 Wright St. 58 - All five Pitt starters scored in double figures and the Panthers shot 55% for the game, cruising past upset-minded Wright State easily.

North Carolina 86 Eastern Kentucky 65 - Tyler Hansbrough led the Tar Heels with 21 points and 10 rebounds. North Carolina moves on to face Michigan State on Saturday.

Indiana 70 Gonzaga 57 - The Hoosiers grabbed an early lead and never let Gonzaga closer than 4 points. Indiana's Rod Wilmont hit 6-11 from beyond the arc for a game high 22 points. DJ White registered a double-double for the Hoosiers with 16 points and 10 rebounds.

Later today: Saturday's matchups and picks.

NCAA Opening Round Picks for Friday, March 16

ALL TIMES EASTERN

Friday, March 16

12:15 pm Virginia (-13) Albany - Virginia's been an up-and-down team, but ended up tied with North Carolina at 11-5 for 1st place in the ACC. The unbalanced schedule in the conference may have helped the Cavaliers a bit, but they closed out the season only 4-4, losing their last two games to Wake Forest and NC State, two non-tournament teams. Albany won the America East tournament, have won 5 straight and 13 of their last 15, and have tournament experience. Could be a shocker and the points are enticing.

12:25 pm Georgia Tech (-1.5) UNLV - The Runnin' Rebels are a good choice for the upset, especially since they are the lower seed (7 vs. 10). The Yellow Jackets are the weakest team from the ACC, while UNLV won the Mountain West tournament and are on a 7-game roll. Both teams play an aggressive up-tempo style. UNLV should outgun the Georgians.

12:30 pm Memphis (-18) North Texas - The Mean Green of North Texas have an imposing task ahead of them. Memphis has a 22-game win streak on the line - the longest in the nation - and aren't about to stop here. At least a 20-point win for the Tigers is in the cards.

2:35 pm Notre Dame (-4) Winthrop - While there's plenty of buzz about the basketball program at Winthrop, the Fighting Irish (24-7, 11-5) have quietly put together a sensational season, finishing 4th in the expanded Big East. Undefeated at home, the Irish won only four road games, but seemed to find themselves late in the season when they won six straight before losing to Georgetown, 89-83 in the Big East tournament. The Irish average 81 points per outing and should shoot themselves past the Big South champion Eagles.

2:45 pm Tennessee (-7) Long Beach St. - Chris Lofton and Wayne Chism have been the keys for the Volunteers all season. Tennessee may be better than their record indicates, having played a solid non-conference schedule in addition to their SEC slate. Long Beach should not pose a problem.

Wisconsin (-13) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi - Alando Tucker and the Badgers should slice these guys up. The Islanders were clearly the best team in the Southland conference, but that's not saying much. Penetrating the Wisconsin defense should prove to be too much of a challenge to overcome. The Badgers should roll to a big win.

3:00 pm Nevada (-1.5) Creighton - Nevada is the higher seed, at #7, but #10 Creighton will not be impressed. The feisty Bluejays suffered a bunch of close losses through the Missouri Valley conference schedule, but won the tourney, so they can handle big game pressure. Nevada will look primarily to Nick Fazekas inside to control the tempo. Two very talented teams make this a close call. Nevada is likely to survive a possible overtime game.

5:05 pm Oregon (-9) Miami (OH) - The Ducks are on an insane roll and there's no way Miami gets in their way. Oregon could win by as many as 30.

7:10 pm Virginia Tech (-2.5) Illinois - Illinois is probably going to get treated badly by yet another ACC entrant. The Big 10 was not very competitive this season and Illinois squeaked into the tournament only by virtue of the selection committee's questionable judgment.

7:15 pm Kansas (-19) Niagara - Niagara fought their way in, winning the play-in game on Tuesday, but they're one and done against #1 seed Kansas. The Jayhawks will probably have the spread covered by halftime.

7:20 pm Arizona (-2) Purdue - Possibly the worst 8-9 matchup ever. Neither team even belongs in this tournament. Arizona ostensibly has more talent, but the Big 10 has a way of winning games they shouldn't. Arizona turns the ball over with passion and should go home losers.

7:25 pm Texas (-9) New Mexico St. - Kevin Durant may outscore the Aggies all by himself. An opening-round romp for the Longhorns.

9:40 pm Southern Illinois (-7) Holy Cross - The Salukis were one of the nation's hottest teams down the stretch, winning 13 straight before falling in the MVC tourney to Creighton. Holy Cross tied Bucknell for the Patriot League regular season title, and beat them in the tourney for the automatic bid. The Crusaders are a solid team, but losses to Duke, Syracuse, Providence, Niagara and George Mason really tell the story. They are a notch below Southern Illinois in talent and the Salukis will escort them to the tournament exit.

9:40 pm Villanova (-1) at Kentucky - Probably the toughest matchup of the day, pits Wildcats vs. Wildcats, but the ones from Kentucky deserve a slight edge only because of Randolph Morris and their interior defense. As the line suggests, this one could go either way, but Kentucky may be a little better handling the pressure of a close game.

9:50 pm Florida (-28) Jackson State - The Gators won 8 games by 28 or more points this season, plus a bunch more by 20 or more, so they're certainly capable of taking out the #16 seed here. Look for Al Horford to have another double-double and Joakim Noah to spend most of the second half on the bench cheering on Florida's subs. Easy one for the Gators.

9:55 pm USC (-1.5) Arkansas - The Razorbacks get up and down the floor very well, and their experience in the SEC tourney - in which they reached the finals - may have given them enough of a confidence boost to spring the upset. It certainly would not be a surprise. USC needs to play their usually good brand of defense, force a slower, half-court game and be patient. If they do that, they'll win easily and they are the pick.

NCAA Tournament First Round Picks for Thursday, March 15

ALL TIMES EASTERN

Thursday, March 15

12:20 pm Maryland (-7) Davidson - Maryland got a lot of good press as they won 7 straight before losing to Miami in the ACC tourney, but Davidson will give them a game for sure. The 29-4 Wildcats have won 25 of their last 26 and are riding a 13-game win streak. Stephen Curry, son of NBA star Dell Curry, is 2nd in the nation in scoring for freshmen behind Texas' Kevin Durant. An upset looms. Take the points though the Terps should survive.

12:25 pm Boston College (-3) Texas Tech - Tough call between two sub-par units, but Bobby Knight's Red Raiders know how to prepare for an opponent and will handle the tournament pressure better than BC, which has lost 5 of their last 7 and hasn't beaten a ranked team on the road this season. Tech takes it.

12:40 pm Louisville (-5.5) Stanford - Stanford starts a pair of 7-footers, twin brothers Brook and Robin Lopez, but Louisville has handled their share of height in the Big East and should cruise here. This is Cardinal (Stanford) vs. Cardinals (Louisville). Plurality means more, as in points.

2:40 pm Washington State (-6.5) Oral Roberts - The Cougars will need to stop Oral Roberts' Caleb Green, who has been the Mid-Continent player of the year three years running. He's averaging 20.8 points and 9.3 rebounds this season. Washington State would like to keep this game in the 60s, but the Golden Eagles have other ideas, averaging 72 points per game. If they find ways to score, it could lead to a big upset for Sean Sutton's gang. Oral Roberts is the pick.

2:50 pm Butler (-1) Old Dominion - No mid-majors have gotten more mention as bracket busters than these two. Unfortunately, one of them will be gone after just one game. Old D's Drew Williamson may be the key to the game if he can handle pressure at the point guard spot and get his guys good looks. Minor upset here, as Butler hasn't been playing well late (4-4 down the stretch).

2:55 pm Georgetown (-16.5) Belmont - No contest unless the Hoyas come in complacent and that's unlikely. Belmont won't be able to handle Georgetown's overall size advantage. A rout is in store.

3:10 pm Texas A&M (-13.5) Pennsylvania - Penn won't be close after the first 12 minutes, especially if Acie Law gets off early. Mark down a win for the Aggies.

5:10 pm Vanderbilt (-3.5) George Washington - GW finished third in the Atlantic-10 but won the conference tourney, while Vandy was 2nd in the SEC East behind Florida. The Commodores have some big wins on their resume including six wins against Top 25 teams. Derrick Byars, Shan Foster and Dan Cage average a combined 43 points per game. Expect that number to be closer to 60 here as Vandy romps.

7:10 pm Ohio St (-21.5) Central Connecticut St - There may not be a bigger mismatch in this tourney. The Buckeyes could win by as many as 35.

7:10 pm Duke (-6.5) Virginia Commonwealth - Duke should be playing in the NIT. They've lost 3 straight and 7 of their last 11. 27-6 VCU won the Colonial Athletic Assn. conference title and tournament, beat last year's Cinderella, George Mason, three times during the season and have won five straight. An early exit for the Blue Devils is a near certainty.

7:20 pm Michigan St (-1.5) Marquette - Marquette will be missing one of their starters, Jerel McNeal, out with a sprained thumb, but expect subs to fill in, especially David Cubillan, who can bomb from beyond the arc. Michigan State will try to keep the score low, but it may not matter as the Golden Eagles have won their fair share of low-scoring games. Michigan State's only win against a Top 25 opponent was at home win over then-#1 Wisconsin, 64-55. One and done for the Spartans as Marquette wins this handily.

7:25 pm UCLA (-19.5) Weber State - Another 2-15 matchup which may not be much of a game, though the Bruins haven't looked quite themselves the past few weeks. Don't expect an upset, but the surprising Wildcats will score enough to keep it under the line.

9:40 pm Xavier (-1.5) at Brigham Young - While the 8-9 matchups are usually tough to call, this one should go Xavier's way. The Musketeers are 5-1 against tournament teams with wins over VCU, Villanova, Miami (OH), Illinois and George Washington. That experience provides an edge.

9:40 pm Pittsburgh (-10) Wright St. - Look no further for buzzer beaters. Pitt has struggled down the stretch, and against Horizon League regular-season and tournament titlist Wright State, they'll have to be on top of their game. The Panthers went 5-4 down the stretch, ended up 2nd in the Big East standings and lost in the finals of the Big East tourney to Georgetown, 65-42. The Raiders of Wright State chased down Butler - ranked as high as #10 at one point - and then beat them in the tourney championship game. The Raiders are ready for anything and have already shown an ability to rise to the occasion. Even if they don't win here, the game should be much closer than the line suggests.

9:50 pm North Carolina (-26) Eastern Kentucky - This will be as close to a home game for the Tar Heels as the game will be played in Winston-Salem, just 80 miles from the North Carolina campus. Eastern Kentucky will try to keep the score low, but that's easier said than done against Carolina, which comes at their opponents in waves. Expect coach Williams to use his bench extensively, which could play into the Colonels hands. Take the points and pray for Eastern Kentucky to display some shooting skills late in the game.

Indiana (-1) Gonzaga - How the oddsmakers figure Indiana to be the slight favorite is anybody's guess, but Gonzaga isn't about to depart after just one game. The Bulldogs have played one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the country and that should help them overcome a stingy Hoosier defense. Gonzaga shows wins over North Carolina, Texas and Stanford, while Indiana's only claim to quality is a home win over Wisconsin and a number of Big 10 conquests. This one goes to the Zags.

This just in: One of our sponsors, Jeff, from Big Daddy Tickets weighs in with his Final Four of Ohio St., Florida. North Carolina and Kansas, with Ohio St. winning the championship game.

Tomorrow: Loads of recaps and picks for Friday's First Round games.

Final Four and Championship Predictions

On Monday and Tuesday, I offered my projections for each of the brackets in this year's NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament. If all goes according to plan, here's how I see the Final Four and National Championship game shaping up:

(#3 South) Texas A&M vs. (#2 East) Georgetown - Nobody should be surprised that the Aggies reach the Final Four. Entering the tournament, their record of 25-6 (13-3, Big 12), was one of the best in the nation. Five of those six losses were on the road or neutral sites, and their last four losses have been by 2, 2, 2 and 1 point. In that span, they lost twice to Texas Tech, but interestingly, they beat conference champion Kansas in their only meeting this season.

Georgetown (26-6, 13-3, Big East), when on their game, can beat anyone, and they proved that in the latter stages of the Big East season, winning 15 of their last 16 and capturing the Big East tourney title in the process. In their run to the title, they hammered highly-touted Pitt twice, 61-53 on Feb. 24, and 65-42 in the tournament finals.

The Hoyas are led by Big East Player of the Year Jeff Green and their imposing center, 7'2" Roy Hibbert. Add to the mix starting forward DaJuan Summers at 6'8" and with the 6'9" Green, the Hoyas are huge up front and that's been the key to most of their wins. They control the paint and the boards and usually find their way to the foul line more often than their opponents. They also bring in 6'8" Patrick Ewing Jr. off the bench for even more muscle and size.

By contrast, the Aggies rely more on their guards and will often put three guards on the court at the same time. Acie Law is the team leader and top scorer at 17.9 points per game. Law and backcourt mate Josh Carter need to hit their threes to keep A&M close.

The Aggies will struggle to keep Hibbert and Green from dominating and eventually, the size advantage will work to Georgetown's favor as they advance to the finals. The score will likely be somewhere in the 60s as the Hoyas have continued to improve defensively all season.

(#1 West) Kansas vs. (#3 Midwest) Oregon - The Jayhawks are supposed to reach the Final Four; Oregon will be somewhat of a surprise to many as the Ducks are an undersized, but overachieving, bunch.

Kansas (30-4, 14-2 Big 12) has been one of the most consistent teams throughout the course of the 2006-07 season. They captured the Big 12 regular season and tournament title and may have the easiest path to the Final Four of any team. The next best team in their bracket is probably UCLA, Gonzaga or Pitt, and they wouldn't have to play any of them until the regional final as they are in the bottom half of the bracket. There is simply a shortage of quality in the West region. Last season, the Jayhawks were ousted in the opening round by Bradley. Don't expect any slippage this time around.

Kansas may have the best backcourt in the country. Brandon Rush and Mario Chalmers can each light it up from 3-point range or slashes into the lane. They also distribute the ball very well and Rush is an adept rebounder (2nd on the team at 5.7 per game). What makes the Jayhawks tough is their balance. In addition to Rush and Chalmers, forwards Julian Wright and Darrell Arthur also average double figures in scoring.

Kansas does have two weaknesses which will show themselves in this semi-final game: turnovers and free throws. Rush's assist/turnover ratio is slightly under 1-1, Chalmers' is only 3-2. Against the lightning quick Oregon guards, that's going to be a problem. They are also not proficient from the foul line. Only Chalmers and sub Sherrod Collins shoot over 70% from the charity stripe. Missing key free throws in close games has doomed many a potential national champion and Kansas is certainly not immune.

Oregon (26-7, 11-7 PAC-10) is one team in the field that is downright scary. Following a stretch in which they were 2-6 (including 6 road games), the Ducks finished strong, winning their final six games and the PAC-10 tournament in the process. Their average margin of victory in their three PAC-10 tourney games was an impressive 20.3 per game, including an 81-57 win in the final against USC.

Oregon lives and dies with the outside shooting of Aaron Brooks, Tajuan Porter and Bryce Taylor. They'll put up as many as 30 3-pointers in a game, something they do with regularity. When they're on they win. If they shoot less than 40% from beyond the arc, they are suspect. But their five top scorers, the three aforementioned guards plus Malik Hairston and Maarty Leunen, all average above 40% on threes.

Oregon is also one of the best free-throw shooting teams in the tournament. Porter hits at 92%, Brooks and Taylor at 83%. The only soft spot is Hairston, a 55% shooter. They are small, however. Leunen is the tallest starter at 6'9", Hairston and Taylor check in at 6'5", but Brooks is just 6' and Porter is a diminutive 5'6". The Ducks routinely are outrebounded, but what they lack in size, they more than make up with quickness and accomplished ball-handling. If allowed to run, they'll turn any game into a track-meet runaway.

Oregon's quickness, 3-point shooting and Kansas' inability to score consistently from the line will key a big upset in this semi-final as the Ducks race into the finals.

The finals matchup of Georgetown vs. Oregon is a replay of a November 29 meeting at Georgetown, won by Oregon, 57-50, despite shooting only 39%, including just 5-22 from 3-point range. Georgetown's big men were noticeably absent, though. Hibbert was 2-7 for 4 points, Green 2-4 for 5 points. Hibbert also had only 3 rebounds. That's unlikely to happen again.

Both teams have improved since that game of 4 months ago, but the Hoyas have probably improved more than any team in the country. Both the Ducks and Hoyas are peaking at just the right time and a game like the Nov. 29 meeting is unlikely. The Ducks will shoot better than 28% behind the line, and Hibbert and Green will certainly score more than 9 points between them.

The game is really one of contrast, pitting probably the tallest team in the tourney against the smallest. Georgetown wants to work the ball inside, while Oregon hopes to let fly from 3-point land. If these two do indeed reach the finals, expect a close game with plenty of lead changes. This one could go either way, but look for Hibbert, Green and Jonathan Wallace to make key plays down the stretch and bring another national championship back to Georgetown, 71-68.

Well, that's my best scenario and I'll be filling out my brackets in various pools along those general lines. Good luck to you in your bracket challenges and LET THE MADNESS BEGIN !!!

Niagara 77 Florida A&M 69 - On Tuesday, the Purple Eagles earned the right to play Kansas in the opening round on Thursday.