Showing posts with label National Semifinal. Show all posts
Showing posts with label National Semifinal. Show all posts

Sunday, April 02, 2017

Zach Collins Leads Gonzaga Past Gamecocks; Kennedy Meeks, North Carolina Hold Off Oregon

College Hoops Players of the Day for Saturday, April 1, 2017

Gonzaga 77 South Carolina 73

In the first national semi-final on Saturday, the Gonzaga Bulldogs did just enough to defeat a pesky #7 seed from the East Region, South Carolina, 77-73.

Essential to the success of the Bulldogs was the play of freshman forward, Zach Collins, who had possibly the best game of his brief college career, scoring 14 points with 13 rebounds and six blocked shots.

The lanky seven-footer came off the bench for 23 minutes of floor time and made every one of them valuable to the team effort, taking advantage of the smaller Gamecock forwards and defending the paint with his size and agility.

After a back-and-forth first half, Gonzaga finally seized a nine-point lead heading into the break and eventually led by 14 points, though a furious South Carolina spurt brought the Gamecocks all the way back and briefly into the lead at 67-65 with just over seven minutes left to play, but Collins' crucial three-pointer put the Bulldogs back on top and they would not trail the remainder of the game. In the final minutes, the Bulldog defense was too much for South Carolina, holding the Gamecocks to just two points in the final 2:30. When Killian Tillie notched a pair of free throws with 2.2 seconds left, putting the Bulldogs up by four, the celebration began.

Gonzaga's first ever trip to the Final Four will now also include a first ever championship game when they meet the North Carolina Tar Heels Monday night at 9:20 pm ET for the national championship. The top seed from the West, Gonzaga haeds into the game with the best record in the country, 37-1.

North Carolina 77 Oregon 76


North Carolina narrowly escaped an upset at the hands of the Oregon Ducks with one of the strangest final seconds of any game, tournament or otherwise, missing four free throws in the final 5.8 seconds while managing to hold onto a one-point lead, eventually advancing to the National Championship game with a 77-76 victory.

With the score at 77-76, Kennedy Meeks, who led all scorers by tying a career-high 25, stepped to the foul line with 5.8 seconds left, for two shots. Missing them both, an alert and aggressive Theo Pinson knifed in for the rebound, getting it outside to Joel Barry II, who was immediately fouled. Berry, normally a clam, 79% free throw shooter, also mangled both of his freebies, but Meeks grabeed the rebound from between two Oregon players and pitched it outside to Pinson, who took two dribbles before throwing the ball high into the air as time expired.

While the Tar Heels led most of the game, the Ducks would simply not go away, and had a legitimate chance at the win, but the Tar Heels, who led the nation in rebounding, did what they did best at the end, denying the Ducks a final scoring opportunity.

Throughout the game it was Meeks who kept North Carolina motoring toward the victory, finishing with 25 points on an incredible 11-for-13 shooting performance, with 14 rebounds, eight of them on the offensive end.

The Tar Heels meet Gonzaga in the National Championship Monday night. The game will be televised live on CBS with the tip at 9:20 pm ET.

Check College Basketball Daily on Monday morning for a preview of the National Championship match-up.

NCAA Tournament Conference Scoreboard
Through Saturday (4/1) Games
Conference (# of teams) Record Winners (# of Wins)
ACC (9) 10-8 Notre Dame (1), Florida St. (1), Virginia (1), Louisville (1), Duke (1), North Carolina (5)
Big East (7) 6-7 Villanova (1), Butler (2), Xavier (3)
Big Ten (7) 8-7 Purdue (2), Wisconsin (2), Northwestern (1), Michigan (2), Michigan State (1)
Big 12 (6) 9-6 Kansas State (1), West Virginia (2), Iowa St. (1), Kansas (3), Baylor (2)
SEC (5) 11-5* Florida (3), Arkansas (1), Kentucky (3), South Carolina (4)
PAC 12 (4) 10-4 USC (2), Arizona (2), Oregon (4), UCLA (2)
Atlantic 10 (3) 1-3 Rhode Island (1)
American (2) 1-2 Cincinnati (1)
West Coast (2) 6-1 Gonzaga (5), St. Mary's (1)
All Others (23) (4-23) Mt. St. Mary's (1), UC Davis (1), Middle Tennessee (1), Wichita State (1)

*One SEC loss and one SEC win occurred in the East Regional Final, South Carolina 77, Florida 70

Friday, March 31, 2017

NCAA: South vs. Midwest National Semi-Final, North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Oregon Ducks

North Carolina vs. Oregon, Saturday, April 1, 2017, 8:49 pm ET, CBS

The nightcap of the National Semi-Final includes one team that's been to the Final Four on multiple occasions - the North Carolina Tar Heels - and one that hasn't been since winning it all in 1939, the Oregon Ducks from the vastly underrated PAC-12 conference.


As shown below in CBD's Tournament Conference Scoreboard, the PAC-12, which sent a mere four teams to the tourney, has outperformed nearly all other conferences with 10 wins and just three losses. Only the SEC, now represented only by South Carolina, has more wins, with 11. The ACC, which sent nine teams - the most of any conference - has just nine wins, and the Tar Heels have accounted for four of them. Three ACC teams went down in their opening tournament game, and none, other than Carolina, won more than one game.

Thus, the dichotomy between the ACC and PAC-12 is clear, muddying the waters of the Final Four with an unusual conference set-up.

Statistics may tell another story about the relative chances of the Ducks and Tar Heels to advance to Monday's championship game. The most telling is North Carolina's dominance on the boards. They were the leading rebounding team in the nation during the regular season (43.5 per game) and that has continued during the tournament. The Tar Heels have grasped an average of 45.3 rebounds per game during their tournament run, winning by an average margin of 14 points, the most of any remaining team.

By contrast, Oregon has hauled in 37 rebounds per game during the tournament, wining their four games by an average margin of just 8.5 points per game, the lowest of the four competitors heading to Phoenix.

Oregon's wins are something of an oddity in themselves. After dropping #14 seed Iona in the opening round by 16, 93-77, they slipped by #11 Rhode Island, 75-72 and held on against #7 Michigan by a mere point, 69-68. Thus, when the Ducks met up with #1 seed in the Midwest, Kansas, there were doubters, but the Ducks played remarkably well on defense, holding the Jayhawks to a season-low 60 points in a no-doubt, 74-60, victory, posting their decond-largest winning margin.

See CBD's Final Four team stats here.

With the win over Kansas in hand, the task before the Ducks is daunting, because North Carolina has more scoring options than the Jayhawks, rebounds far better, share the ball better (18.0 assists per game during the tourney) and have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.36.


In the paint, the Ducks are short-handed, with stalwart Jordan Bell the only defender and rebounder of excellence since the injury to Chris Boucher. Bell had a monster game against Kansas (11 points, 13 board, 8 blocks), but will have his hands full against 6'10" Kennedy Meeks and 6'9" Isaiah Hicks. North Carolina will no doubt be going strong to the hole on every opportunity, as point guard Joel Berry II and forward Justin Jackson have driving, scoring and passing ability on a par with any team in the country.

Oregon may have to lean heavily on Tyler Dorsey, who has scored 20 or more in every tournament game thus far and has been on target from three-point range. They;ll also get scoring from Dillon Brooks and hope that Dylan Ennis steps up his game. The Ducks may play a lot of zone defense against North Carolina, forcing them to shoot threes, the one area of North Carolina's game that may be considered a slight weakness. The 31-7 Tar Heels are shooting just 32% from beyond the arc in the tourney. 33-5 Oregon is hitting threes at 43%, with Dorsey the main contributor.

Head to Saturday, the oddsmakers have North Carolina a mere five-point favorite. While Oregon has demonstrated throughout the tournament that they can defend well, they have not faced a team as deep and talented as the Tar Heels. North Carolina's rotation goes nine deep; Oregon is a stretch to get seven quality players into the game at this juncture.

North Carolina's depth and general advantage in the paint could produce a monstrous blowout, especially if the Tar Heels establish a lead early and defend the three-point line. There's also the intangible factor of North Carolina's last-second loss to Villanova in the tournament final last season that comes into play. The Tar Heels are hungry for retribution which only a national championship can provide, making them the overall favorite to emerge victorious, not just in this game, but again on Monday night. Oregon could see the end of the line despite a solid run.

NCAA Tournament Conference Scoreboard
Through Sunday (3/26) Games
Conference (# of teams) Record Winners (# of Wins)
ACC (9) 9-8 Notre Dame (1), Florida St. (1), Virginia (1), Louisville (1), Duke (1), North Carolina (4)
Big East (7) 6-7 Villanova (1), Butler (2), Xavier (3)
Big Ten (7) 8-7 Purdue (2), Wisconsin (2), Northwestern (1), Michigan (2), Michigan State (1)
Big 12 (6) 9-6 Kansas State (1), West Virginia (2), Iowa St. (1), Kansas (3), Baylor (2)
SEC (5) 11-4* Florida (3), Arkansas (1), Kentucky (3), South Carolina (4)
PAC 12 (4) 10-3 USC (2), Arizona (2), Oregon (4), UCLA (2)
Atlantic 10 (3) 1-3 Rhode Island (1)
American (2) 1-2 Cincinnati (1)
West Coast (2) 5-1 Gonzaga (4), St. Mary's (1)
All Others (23) (4-23) Mt. St. Mary's (1), UC Davis (1), Middle Tennessee (1), Wichita State (1)

*One SEC loss and one SEC win occurred in the East Regional Final, South Carolina 77, Florida 70

Thursday, March 30, 2017

Final Four: East vs. West Regions, South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs

East meets West, Saturday, April 1, 6:09 pm ET, CBS

Gonzaga enters the national semi-final against South Carolina as a considerable favorite of 6 1/2 points, a somewhat surprising number since the Gamecocks are playing at such a high level, having already dusted tournament low seeds such as Duke (#2), Baylor (#3), and Florida (#4) by solid margins.

In terms of margin of victory, the two teams appear to be on a collision course with the Zags' average margin during the tournament being 13.25 and South Carolina's at 13.5.

Gonzaga, having defeated - in order - a 16 (South Dakota State), an 8 (Northwestern), a 4 (West Virginia), and an 11 (Xavier) by scores of 20, 6, 3 and 24, respectively. It's worth noticing that the lowest margins of victory were actually against the better teams (i.e., the lower-numbered seeds) and it's entirely possible that the upset-minded Musketeers from Xavier simply ran out of gas against the Bulldogs after beating #2 Arizona, 73-71.

Seeds of 11 or higher generally don't make the Final Four. In fact, no team seeded higher than 11 has ever reached the promised land of college basketball. Three 11 seeds have, those being LSU, in 1986; George Mason in 2006; and VCU in 2011. None of them won.

So, the 24-point romp over Xavier, which finished the season with a very respectable 24-14 record has to be weighed against their overall quality. The Musketeers were 9-9 in the Big East conference. The Big East may have been massively overseeded, sending seven teams and finishing with a record of 6-7 in the tournament. Only Xavier, Villanova (knocked out in the second round), and Butler won games. Not to belabor the point, but the Bulldogs may have had one of the easier paths to the Final Four, thanks, in part, to Xavier, for whipping the #2 and #3 seeds in the region, Arizona and Florida State.

Gonzaga's three-point win over #4 seed West Virginia is another indicator that the Bulldogs may not be competitive against the very best in the country. Though they have, during the regular season, posted wins over Florida, Iowa State, and Arizona, but those games were all played on their home court, a definite advantage.

See College Basketball Daily's Final Four Stats post for more.

Looking at South Carolina's wins, they came against #10 Marquette, 93-73; #2 Duke, 88-81; #3 Baylor, 70-50; and #4 Florida, 77-70. The Gamecocks took down three of the four top seeds in the region, and, it's possible that they may have been in business against #1 Villanova, but Wisconsin (beaten by Florida in the Sweet 16) beat them to it.

The quality of South Carolina's wins are very high, as are some other revealing tournament stats. The Gamecocks are scoring an average of 82.0 points per game; Gonzaga, 72.3. South Carolina is also shooting better, .476 to .432, and making their free throws. They were shooting freebies at a 69% rate and are knocking them down at 75% during their tourney run. Gonzaga has gone in the opposite direction, making 74% during the regular season and devolving down to 59% in the tourney.

While the Bulldogs carry into the game the gaudy 36-1 record (best in the country), South Carolina pales by comparison at 26-10, but they appear to be very much in the mold of a team playing with purpose and conviction. Team leader, Sindarius Thornwell is a senior and was the SEC Player of the Year. Among other scoring options for South Carolina are the shifty PJ Dozier and Carlos Silva on the interior. 6'10" freshman forward, Maik Kotsar emerged as a real threat in the win over the Gators, scoring 12 points on 6-for-10 shooting.

For Gonzaga, they always need a big effort from leading scorer Nigel Williams-Goss (16.7 ppg regular season) because after him, the talent level falls off in fairly dramatic fashion, but the Bulldogs are fairly deep and play excellent defense.

In the final analysis, it's difficult to see how the Bulldogs can defeat this solid bunch from South Carolina by more than a few points, if at all. Taking the 6 1/2 points would seem to be just about a no-brainer as the Gamecocks may prove to be one of the best 8-seeds of all time.

Wednesday, March 29, 2017

Key Players For NCAA FINAL FOUR: North Carolina, Oregon, South Carolina, Gonzaga

Tournament Final Four Key Players

North Carolina Tar Heels (31-7)

It's difficult to identify just one key player for the Tar Heels, but if anyone fits the bill, it is point guard Joel Berry II. Berry leads the team in assists, is second in scoring (14.6 points per game), and runs the offense. Available to either drive the ball, lead the fast break or shoot threes, Berry is always a key component to the Carolina offense.

Defensively, nobody plugs the middle like Kennedy Meeks, the 6'10" double-double machine. Meeks is imposing in size and a strong defender and rebounder. Against Kentucky in the South regional final, Meeks had just seven points, but collected 17 rebounds. The Wildcats didn't get many second shots and the Ducks likely won't either if Meeks is on his game.

Oregon Ducks (33-5)

Oregon's offense flows through 6'4" guard Tyler Dorsey, who averaged 14.5 points during the regular season, but has stepped up his game significantly in the post season, scoring 20 or more points in seven straight games, including 27 in each of the Ducks' wins over Rhode Island (75-72) and the blowout 74-60 victory over Kansas in the Midwest Regional final.

Deadly from beyond the arc, if left open, Dorsey makes the opposition pay dearly, stroking it at 65.4% (17-for-26) during the tournament, his three-point shots have proven to set the Ducks flying time and again, and will be a potent weapon against the Tar Heels.

A stalwart on defense is 6'9" forward Jordan Bell, who scored 11 points with 13 rebounds and 8 blocked shots in Oregon's win over Kansas. He'll be up against a variety of long and lanky Tar Heels in the paint, but is tough to root out once he's established position. Bell will be a key for the Ducks on both the offensive and defensive boards.

South Carolina Gamecocks (26-10)

Averaging 25.8 points per game, Sindarius Thornwell is on pace for Tournament Most Outstanding Player should South Carolina move forward to the National Championship. The Gamecock forward is generally unstoppable for an entire game and Carolina looks to him constantly throughout contests to pace the offense and especially in tight conditions at the end of the half or the game. Thornwell is the leading scorer among players remaining in the tournament and will have to be at his best if the Gamecocks are to reach the tourney final. Preparedness is high on the "to do" list for South Carolina, so expect Thornwell, the SEC Player of the Year (and there were some good ones in the conference), to be focused and show leadership.

Gonzaga Bulldogs (36-1)

There is one and only one key player for the Bulldogs, and he is known as Nigel Williams-Goss, the team leader in both scoring (16.7) and assists (4.6), and the second-leading rebounder (5.9). The 6'3" junior from Happy Valley, Oregon is a homegrown legend in the Pacific Northwest and the absolute key to Gonzaga's success. Capable of leaping out of his sneakers, Williams-Goss can penetrate or shoot three-pointers with the best in the nation.

As he goes, so go the Bulldogs, and, with just one loss, he's been going good all season long. Against Xavier in the West regional final, he did not shoot well (7-for-19), but had 23 points, making four of seven from three-point range, with eight rebounds, four assists, a pair of steals and a blocked shot. Williams-Goss has been Gonzaga's go-to guy and will be up to the challenge presented by South Carolina's stout defense.

Thursday: Analysis of East-West, South Carolina-Gonzaga National Semi-final
Friday: Analysis of Midwest-South, Oregon-North Carolina National Semi-final

Tuesday, March 28, 2017

2017 NCAA Final Four Stats; Gonzaga vs. South Carolina; Oregon vs. North Carolina

NCAA Regular Season and Tournament Stats






Regular Season Stats per game
Team points FG% FT% 3pt% Reb. asst. a/to steals blocks
North Carolina 84.9 .471 .705 .366 43.5 18.2 1.53 6.94 3.24
Oregon 79.1 .481 .711 .378 36.4 16.4 1.42 6.50 6.65

Gonzaga 84.6 .518 .738 .382 40.3 16.0 1.42 7.15 4.45
South Carolina 72.1 .414 .690 .338 36.3 12.6 0.94 7.84 3.88

Tournament Stats per game
Team points FG% FT% 3pt% Reb. ass a/to steals blocks
North Carolina 85.5 .474 .700 .321 45.3 18.0 1.36 8.25 4.50
Oregon 77.8 .500 .648 .432 37.0 12.3 1.11 6.75 3.75

Gonzaga 72.3 .432 .586 .350 41.8 10.0 0.82 6.00 5.75
South Carolina 82.0 .476 .752 .329 36.8 13.0 1.11 7.50 3.00

Tournament margin of victory
Team gm1 gm2 gm3 gm4 total avg.
North Carolina 39 7 8 2 56 14
Oregon 16 3 1 14 34 8.5

Gonzaga 20 6 3 24 53 13.25
South Carolina 20 7 20 7 54 13.5



The week ahead:
Wednesday: Key players, situations, strategies...
Thursday: East-West National Semi-Final Preview
Friday: South-Midwest National Semi-Final Preview

Monday, March 27, 2017

Luke Maye's Buzzer-Beater Sends Tar Heels Over Kentucky And On To Final Four

College Hoops Player of the Day for Sunday, March 26, 2017

Luke Maye played just 20 minutes in North Carolina's 75-73 victory over Kentucky in the NCAA Tournament South Regional final, but he made every minute of his time on the court count, especially in the final seconds of the game.

After Malik Monk tied the score at 73 with a miraculous three-pointer with 7.2 seconds left to play, North Carolina's Theo Pinson drove the length of the court and into the lane, pitching the ball to Maye, who was stationed on the three point line to the left for the basket.

Without hesitation, Maye let fly and swished the game-winner with 0.3 seconds remaining, sending North Carolina to the Final Four for the 20th time in the program's storied history.

Maye and his teammates celebrated on the court in Memphis, seeking redemption for last season's last-second loss to Villanova for the national championship.

The final shot was not the only contribution made by the 6'8" sophomore forward. Maye was mostly on target uring his various stints on the court, going 6-for-9 from the field for 17 points, including making two of three three-pointers and all three of his free throw attempts. He also added three rebounds, two assists and had a steal.

His point total was second to teammate Justin Jackson, who tallied 19, but was only 7-for-17. Kennedy Meeks was a major force under the rim, scoring seven points while hauling in 17 boards and blocking four shots in 32 minutes. Maye's accuracy and heady presence were critical to the Tar Heels prevailing, especially when everything was on the line in the closing seconds.

North Carolina heads to Glendale, Arizona, site of the NCAA Tournament Final Four, to face the Oregon Ducks, the #3 seed from the West region, making its first appearance in the Final Four since winning the tournament in 1939.

In the other regional final on Sunday, 7th-seeded South Carolina earned its first trip to the Final Four in the school's history, defeating #4 Florida, 77-70, in the East Regional, an all-SEC classic.

Sindarius Thornwell led all scorers with 26 points as the Gamecocks rallied from seven points down at the half. South Carolina faces the #1 seed from the West, Gonzaga, also making its first trip to the Final Four.

Both Saturday games are slated for broacast coverage on CBS, starting with the Gamecocks and Bulldogs at 6:09 pm ET. The North Carolina-Oregon match-up should tip at or around 8:49 pm ET.

College Basketball Daily will keep the hoops juices flowing during the week leading up to the National Semi-Final games in Arizona.

Here's a peek at the upcoming daily schedule:

Tuesday: Statistical Breakdown of Final Four Teams
Wednesday: Key players, situations, strategies...
Thursday: East-West National Semi-Final Preview
Friday: South-Midwest National Semi-Final Preview



NCAA Tournament Conference Scoreboard
Through Sunday (3/26) Games
Conference (# of teams) Record Winners (# of Wins)
ACC (9) 9-8 Notre Dame (1), Florida St. (1), Virginia (1), Louisville (1), Duke (1), North Carolina (4)
Big East (7) 6-7 Villanova (1), Butler (2), Xavier (3)
Big Ten (7) 8-7 Purdue (2), Wisconsin (2), Northwestern (1), Michigan (2), Michigan State (1)
Big 12 (6) 9-6 Kansas State (1), West Virginia (2), Iowa St. (1), Kansas (3), Baylor (2)
SEC (5) 11-4* Florida (3), Arkansas (1), Kentucky (3), South Carolina (4)
PAC 12 (4) 10-3 USC (2), Arizona (2), Oregon (4), UCLA (2)
Atlantic 10 (3) 1-3 Rhode Island (1)
American (2) 1-2 Cincinnati (1)
West Coast (2) 5-1 Gonzaga (4), St. Mary's (1)
All Others (23) (4-23) Mt. St. Mary's (1), UC Davis (1), Middle Tennessee (1), Wichita State (1)

*One SEC loss and one SEC win occurred in the same game, the East Regional Final, South Carolina 77, Florida 70

Saturday, April 04, 2015

Frank Kaminsky, Badgers Send Kentucky Home; Duke Hammers Spartans; Blue Devils Face Wisconsin in Monday Championship

National Semi-Finals
College Hoops Player of the Day for Saturday, April 4, 2015

(1) Duke 81 (7) Michigan State 61 - So much for hype. In terms of excitement, this one was definitely snooze button material. No wonder these semi-finals are televised on TBS. Once Duke established a lead - about midway through the first half - they never looked back and led by 11 at the break.

The Blue Devils expanded their lead to as many as 20 points. Michigan State never got closer than 13 after Duke made the opening three buckets of the second half. Justise Winslow led Duke with 19 points, followed by Jahlil Okafor's 18 and 17 from Quinn Cook. Statistically, the game was decided at the foul line. Duke went to the line 37 times and made 27. The Spartans had 16 free throw attempts and made 10.

The only remaining question is when do the "I Hate Coach K" tee-shirts go on sale?

(1) Wisconsin 71 (1) Kentucky 64 - Wisconsin engineered a 15-4 run to close out the game, ending Kentucky's unbeaten streak at 38 games. The Badgers seemed desperate with under five minutes remaining, but Sam Dekker's jumper at 4:28 got the Badgers rolling. Outstanding defense against the Wildcats throughout, but especially at crunch time keyed the Badger victory. Kentucky made just one of eight attempts from the field in the final 5:30.

The Badgers led most of the first half, but Kentucky managed to claw back into the fray leaving the two teams deadlocked at intermission.

Wisconsin shot 47% (13-28) in the first half; Kentucky, 60% (15-25), but The Badgers out-rebounded Kentucky, 15-10, seven of Wisconsin's boards coming on the offensive end. Kentucky was just 11-for-29 (19%) in the second half. Wisconsin finished at 48% (23-48).

Frank Kaminsky led all scorers with 20 points, 11 rebounds, two assists and a pair of blocked shots. Amazingly, Wisconsin ended the game with an enormous edge on the boards, out-rebounding the Wildcats, 34-22.

The Badgers will face the Duke Blue Devils for the National Championship, Monday night, April 6.

Conference Power Scoreboard
Conference W-L Winners (# of Ws)
ACC 17-6 Notre Dame (3), NC State (2), North Carolina (2), Arkansas (1), Virginia (1). Louisville (3), Duke (5)
Big East 5-6 Butler (1), Xavier (2), Villanova (1), Georgetown (1)
Big Ten 12-6 Ohio State (1), Michigan St. (4), Maryland (1), Iowa (1), Wisconsin (5)
Big 12 5-7 Kansas (1), West Virginia (2), Oklahoma (2)
Pac-12 8-4 UCLA (2), Arizona (3), Utah (2), Oregon (1)
SEC 5-5 Ole Miss (1), Kentucky (4)
All Others 14-32 Hampton(1), Robert Morris (1), Dayton (1), UAB (1), Georgia St. (1), Cincinnati (1), N. Iowa (1), Wichita St. (2), San Diego State (1), Gonzaga (3), Dayton (1)

Wednesday, April 01, 2015

Final Four Semi-Finals: Michigan State vs. Duke; Kentucky vs. Wisconsin Game Analysis


Final Four National Semi-Finals
Game Breakdown and Analysis


March Madness has become Awesome April, with the Final Four ready to rumble on Saturday, April 4 at Lucas Stadium in Indianapolis.

Unsurprisingly, the four finalists are teams with exceptional coaches, three of which have won national championships, all of whom have been to the Final Four, especially Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski, who has taken Duke teams to college hoops' promised land more often than any coach, except UCLA's legendary John Wooden, tying the Wizard of Westwood this season with his 12th Final Four appearance.

Coach K has also notched four NCAA Division I Tournament Championships (1991, 1992, 2001, 2010), thus, his prowess as a college basketball mastermind is beyond question. He still has a way to go to match Wooden's record of 10 national titles, however, a record that may never be broken, if only because Division I hoops has changed so much over the years. In Wooden's day, one only needed two wins to reach the Final Four and four wins to take it all. Nowadays, it takes four wins just to get into the Final Four and six to win it all. Plus, quality players are leaving college after a year or two, making building a long-lasting program improbable and exceedingly difficult.

But, along with Krzyzewski, the likes of Tom Izzo (Michigan State), Bo Ryan (Wisconsin) and John Calipari (Kentucky) continue to get their teams into the tournament and prepare them for the single-elimination marathon.

For Tom Izzo, this marks the seventh Final Four for his Michigan State Spartans and his first Final Four since 2010. He is seeking a second national championship. He won his first in 2000. John Calipari has been to six Final Fours, four with Kentucky (2011, 2012, 2014, 2015) and previously had led UMass in 1996 and Memphis in 2008 to the Final Four, but those appearances were later vacated by the NCAA. He has one national championship to his credit, that one earned in 2012. It was Kentucky's eighth national championship.

67-year-old Bo Ryan has the fewest number of Final Four appearances, making the grade last season and this year, both with the Badgers. He has never won a national championship in Division I, though he did win four Division III championships as head coach of University of Wisconsin-Platteville (1991, 1995, 1998 and 1999), so the competitive fires burn deep in the Badger head coach.

Following is a breakdown/analysis of the two semi-final games:

6:09 pm (7) Michigan State (27-11) vs (1) Duke (33-4) (TBS)

Line: Duke -5

Michigan State Spartans:Points per game: 71.9; Rank: 67
Rebounds per game: 37.7; Rank: 36
Assists per game: 17.1; Rank: 4
Field Goal Pct.: .471; Rank: 32

Duke Blue Devils:Points per game: 80.6; Rank: 4
Rebounds per game: 37.3; Rank: 44
Assists per game: 15.5; Rank: 21
Field Goal Pct.: .502; Rank: 3

Both teams seem cut from roughly the same cloth, that of hard-working, blue-collar determination and team principles, though Duke arguably has more overall talent. Duke and Michigan State both share the ball, as evidenced by their high rankings in the assist column. Other than Duke being the higher-scoring team and having a better shooting percentage, there's little separating these two, but the high level of shooting, especially considering how many three's the Blue Devils take (and make) should be of concern to the Spartans.

Michigan State will have to defend the thee-point line, where Tyus Jones and Quinn Cook predominate, plus be mindful of the inside presence of Jahlil Okafor, possibly the best inside presence in the college ranks this season. The Spartans really don't have the size nor the manpower to put the clamps down on Okafor, so expect them to double-team, even though that's going to free up some three-point shooters. Michigan State will play man-to-man defense, as will the Blue Devils. The premier match-up will be at point guard, where Duke's Jones will have to deal with lightning-quick Travis Trice and diminutive Lourawls Nairn Jr.

Darnell Valentine, Michigan State's leading scorer, will have to provide leadership and hit more than a few contested points. It would be in Michigan State's favor to turn this into a half-court contest, as Duke can and will run and gun. Fast break points may be hard to come by, however, as the well-prepared Spartans play excellent defense.

As for records, Michigan State's 27-11 mark is the worst of all the Final Four contestants, but they knocked off the #2, 3 and 4 seeds in the East region, topping Virginia, Oklahoma and Louisville, respectively, after cruising by Georgia, 70-63, in their first game. Michigan State's average margin of victory in tournament games is a mere 5.75, and the 76-70 win over Louisville was in overtime.

Duke's mark of 33-4 is among the best in the nation, and, considering they came out of the rock-solid ACC, is quite an accomplishment. Their tourney wins have been sensational and by large margins. After whipping 16-seed Robert Morris, 85-56, in their opener, the defeated San Diego State, 68-49; Utah, 63-57; and Gonzaga, 66-52, for an average margin of victory of 17.0, an impressive stat.

Neither team is especially deep on the bench, but both coaches will substitute freely, giving their star players needed breaks, though Izzo will be shuffling in more players for the Spartans than does Duke. If the Spartans don't defend well or Duke has open looks from beyond the arc, this could turn into a rout. What will keep it close is solid defense by Michigan State, a bit of luck, and second chance points by the better-rebounding Spartans.

8:49 pm (1) Wisconsin (35-3) vs (1) Kentucky (38-0) (TBS)

Line: Kentucky -5

Wisconsin Badgers:
Points per game: 71.9; Rank: 67
Rebounds per game: 33.7; Rank: 204
Assists per game: 12.7; Rank: 165
Field Goal Pct.: .480; Rank: 21

Kentucky Wildcats:
Points per game: 74.9; Rank: 29
Rebounds per game: 38.2; Rank: 21
Assists per game: 14.7; Rank: 42
Field Goal Pct.: .469; Rank: 40

If there's been any mismatches in this tournament, they've likely featured the Wildcats, who have run their record to 38-0, after sweeping the SEC regular season and tournament, by winning four tournament games by a combined 77 points, for an average margin of 19.25 points per game. Take out the two-point win over Notre Dame (68-66) and their margin improves to 25 points per outing.

The Wildcats have nothing in mind other than to become the first team since the 1976 Indiana Hoosiers, coached by Bobby Knight, to win a national championship with an undefeated record. Kentucky is two games from accomplishing the feat, which, somewhat surprisingly, hasn't been done in 39 years, nearly as long as another Kentucky-related record, that being horse racing's triple crown. The last time that happened was 1978, when Affirmed fended off Alydar in three straight close races.

While there may not be a triple crown horse on the racing horizon, these Wildcats are surely basketball thoroughbreds, and this team, despite being mostly freshmen and sophomores, is exceedingly deep, and very tall and long. Wisconsin will find out early on that Kentucky's size can be extremely incapacitating, especially if the Wildcat players are able to set their feet on defense. Since Wisconsin plays a half-court kind of game, the Kentucky players will almost certainly have an edge when the Badgers are trying to score.

A glance at the stats and rankings above reveals even more issues for the Badgers. They are almost certain to be out-rebounded and much of their offense depends on two big men, Frank Kominsky and Sam Dekker, whereas the Wildcats can counter with four or five players of size, starting with 6'11" Karl Anthony Towns, and seven-footers Willie Cauley-Stein and Dakari Johnson, with Trey Lyles (6'10") and Marcus Lee (6'9").

The back court match-ups don't hold much promise for Wisconsin either. Though the Harrison twins, Andrew and Aaron, are the starters, their replacements, Tyler Ulis and Devin Booker are probably better. Booker is especially deadly from outside. He can rain down threes like the sky is falling.

The Badgers do have Kaminsky, the choice for player of the year, but asking him to do it alone is a task too great. He is crafty and has extreme range, but, unless he gets help from others in the scoring and rebounding department, it's hard to see how Wisconsin can stay with the Wildcats for the entire 40 minutes. Notre Dame nearly pulled off a remarkable upset, and they were one of just a few teams that could possibly defeat Kentucky, as they had been red-hot, proven by winning the ACC tournament and played a nearly flawless game.

Wisconsin is certainly capable of playing with few turnovers - that is their trademark - but they'll really have to clamp down on defense, especially in the paint. What works for Wisconsin is their experience versus Kentucky's youthful talent. The Badgers are cool under pressure and it wouldn't be a surprise to see them with a chance to win late in the game, but, from well before March Madness began, this was always going to be Kentucky's tournament to lose, and if they do lose, it will be by a team with depth and determination, but it remains a long shot.

Saturday, April 06, 2013

It's a Date: Louisville to Meet Michigan Monday for National Championship; Luke Hancock Powers Cardinals

College Hoops Player of the Day for Saturday, April 6, 2013

National Semifinals

(1) Louisville 72 (9) Wichita State 68 - The Shockers gave Louisville everything they had, but the Cardinals erased a 47-35 second half deficit to roar back late in the game, grab a five-point lead and hold on for the win. Luke Hancock was sensational. coming off the bench for Louisville, scoring 14 of his 20 points in the second half on 6-for-9 shooting with three treys and five of seven from the foul line.

Russ Smith led the Cardinals with 21, though he was erratic at 6-for-17 shooting (4-for-11 on threes); Cleanthony Early led all scorers with 24 points and was also the game's high rebounder with 10. Hancock filled out his game with four boards, two assists and a pair of steals.

Wichita State was able to build their lead by not turning the ball over, giving it up just four times through the first 34 minutes. Six late turnovers turned the tide for the ball-hawking Cardinals.

The Shockers cut the lead down to two points in the final minute, but could not get any closer, as Hancock and Smith settled matters at the foul line.

(4) Michigan 61 (4) Syracuse 56 - Six first half three-pointers and seven offensive rebounds helped the Wolverines establish a 36-25 lead at intermission. The scoring came from Michigan's bench: Spike Albrecht was 2-for-2 from beyond the arc; Caris LeVert was 2-for-3 from distance.

Syracuse cut into Michigan's lead in the second half, but could never tie the game nor take the lead, cutting it to one point on James Sutherland's three-pointer with 42 seconds left, but Michigan made enough free throws and Syracuse could not covert in the waning seconds - both of their starting guards, Michael Cater-Williams and Brandon Triche having fouled out.

Michigan's freshman forward, Mitch McGary, had a monster game, scoring 10 points with 12 rebounds (five offensive), six assists and two blocks.

CJ Fair led the Orange and all scorers with 22 points. Tim Hardaway Jr. led Michigan with 13 points. The Wolverines shot 40% for the game; Syracuse was only marginally better, at 42%, but the Orange made only 3 of 14 from three-point range, 21%.